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Don’t bet on a U.S. recession in 2023
Roger Montgomery
March 1, 2023
After a 4.65 per cent increase in interest rates this past year, why isn’t the U.S. economy tanking? And why aren’t retail sales plummeting? One reason, perhaps, is that during the pandemic, many home buyers locked in fixed-rate 30-year mortgages at ultra-low rates, and they are thus unaffected by recent rate rises. If I’m right, the U.S. economy might avoid a recession in 2023. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Why you shouldn’t worry about ‘what comes next’
Roger Montgomery
February 28, 2023
Lately, I’ve seen a number of media reports pondering if world economies – and equity markets – are headed for a soft, hard or no landing. To me, this kind of talk is a bit of a distraction. Because, as a long-term investor, the objective is still the same: to buy quality companies at good prices. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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For travel stocks, it’s up, up and away
Roger Montgomery
February 27, 2023
If you’ve travelled lately and felt stung by the big increases in airfares and accommodation prices, you might think about ‘revenge investing’ in some travel companies. Because, since the post-pandemic re-opening, many – like Flight Centre and Qantas – have seen a big increase in patronage, profits and share price. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like, Tourism.
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Just how bad will the consumption slowdown be?
David Buckland
February 27, 2023
Continuing to explore the breadth of the expected slowdown in consumption, granular analysis of the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) monthly deposits and the RBA’s October 2022 Financial Stability Review, the following data is worth highlighting. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 24 February 2023
Brett Craig
February 24, 2023
Given this week’s quiet data release cycle, we thought we would explore some methods of funding that can be used by lenders we work with and to give context to where we participate in capital markets. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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History doesn’t repeat, but maybe it rhymes
Roger Montgomery
February 24, 2023
In this week’s video insight Roger shares reasons to be optimistic about investing in equities and current market conditions. Despite all the doom and gloom surrounding markets at the moment, what matters more than anything else is inflation. Inflation hurts stocks overall because consumer spending drops and corporate profits are impacted by higher input costs. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.
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Why we hold a material position in Seven Group
Michael Gollagher
February 24, 2023
Seven Group Holdings (ASX:SVW) is a diversified company with businesses and investments in industrial services, media and energy. We particularly like the company’s exposure to mining services and infrastructure investment – via WesTrac, Coates Hire and Boral – and its high quality management. Together, these factors should continue to drive earnings and share price performance over the long term. Continue…
by Michael Gollagher Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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Gary’s best and worst pick from reporting season so far
Scott Phillips
February 23, 2023
In this video Scott speaks with Gary Rollo, portfolio manager of the Montgomery Small Companies Fund on an update on small caps reporting this results season. There’s been more beats from an earnings point of view than misses, but that’s looking backwards. Outlooks count because after all, the stock market buys the future and those have definitely been more negative. Gary also shares one of the best results he has seen and one of the worst. Continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
