In this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to unpack two of the most talked-about assets right now – gold and Bitcoin. We explored why gold has surged to record highs, and I explained why investors often turn to it in times of uncertainty. Gold can feel like a safe haven against fears of currency devaluation, central bank policy shifts, or geopolitical risks, but at its core, it’s more of a bet on fear than a long-term investment. I also touched on the practical ways Australians can gain exposure to gold, from bullion and exchange-traded funds to gold mining shares, and the unique costs and risks attached to each. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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In this week’s video insight I take a closer look at record stock markets, what’s driving them to new highs, and what that might mean for investors. The S&P 500 is trading at historic levels on measures such as price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios, with much of the enthusiasm powered by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Companies are spending billions on cloud, semiconductors and infrastructure, while revenues are still catching up. It’s an exciting period of innovation, but also one where history reminds us markets often price in future growth well before it materialises. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.

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This U.S. summer, a new investment frenzy – akin to the SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) exuberance of 2020/21 – has gripped Wall Street as companies transform their balance sheets into crypto vaults. And as September unfolds, the corporate dash into cryptocurrencies shows no signs of slowing.

From Japanese hotel operators to chipmakers, tech startups, and legacy manufacturers, they have all funnelled tens of billions into Bitcoin and altcoins, reimagining their cash reserves as bets on digital assets. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, Global markets, Market commentary.

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As I delve a little deeper into the aggregate artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure (capex) numbers and the revenue and profits subsequently required to recoup them, one thing stands out: a world of AI forecasts that are universally optimistic.

That’s not usual in any hype-inspired boom, but these numbers are extraordinary. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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CrossBorder Capital’s latest report by founder Michael Howell paints an ominous picture of a maturing global liquidity cycle, raising concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) waning role in providing liquidity (the fuel for market and asset rises) has negative implications for markets and the U.S. economy.

Howell’s analysis concentrates on the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut was delivered alongside hints of further cuts, consistent with Trump’s demands. Yet, he labels this a “hawkish cut,” emphasising the Fed’s tough stance on liquidity. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, incoming appointee Stephen Miran, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are reportedly aligned in their push to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet and minimise its market influence. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined Paul Turton today on ABC Newcastle to discuss why the market is demonstrating new highs despite the fear and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events, the rising risk of stagflation, and the growing threat to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence.

It appears the persistent rise in the S&P 500 is reflective of the collective excitement and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). According to sources like Gartner and Deloitte, it is expected that AI global spend will hit the US$1.5 trillion mark in the near future. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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Anecdotal evidence. Dismissed as mostly irrelevant, anecdotal evidence becomes useful often only in hindsight. Until then, it’s a novelty, statistically unsound, unreliable, lacking objectivity and unverifiable.

But boy, it’s fun to inquire.

That was then

In the 1920s, the stock market was ‘roaring’, enjoying widespread optimism and even euphoria amid new innovations. On October 15, 1929, after the market had experienced a nine-year rise, the first celebrity Yale economist, Irving Fisher, gave a speech in New York City. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Last week, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published a piece commenting on the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure frenzy. As an investor, one can’t help but be awestruck while also feeling concern and a more than a hint of déjà vu.

According to the WSJ, Ellendale, North Dakota, is a sleepy town of just 1,100 now playing host to a half-built AI data centre that’s will be larger than 10 Home Depots – the U.S. equivalent of a large format Bunnings Warehouse here in Australia. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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