In my recent conversation with James Findlay on Statewide Drive, I discussed several key trends in the current economic landscape. Since June, major lenders and banks have only reported a modest increase in mortgage defaults and house repossessions, while vehicle defaults remain under 1 per cent. However, ASIC data shows that Australia is on track to record the highest number of business collapses in a decade, particularly in the building and food service industries, reflecting a pullback in discretionary spending.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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Yesterday, I had the pleasure of participating in the InvestmentMarkets September webinar series to discuss the current economic backdrop and factors driving markets. I highlight two asset classes where I see significant opportunities for investors in the coming new year: innovative quality small companies and Australian private credit. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, On the Internet.

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Australia needs to urgently ditch the luxury car tax so that Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) aren’t the only cheap option. According to U.S. security experts, Chinese EVs are a danger to national security.

In a decisive move with significant implications for the United States (U.S.) automotive and technology sectors, the Biden Administration this week unveiled plans to prohibit the use of Chinese-developed software in internet-connected vehicles. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Technology & Telecommunications.

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According to several reports, China’s property price index is tumbling. China’s new home prices in 70 cities fell 5.3 per cent year-over-year in August 2024, accelerating from July’s 4.9 per cent drop. This marks the 14th consecutive month of decline and the sharpest since May 2015, despite Beijing’s efforts to stabilise the property market through lower mortgage rates and reduced homebuying costs. The downturn deepened across most major cities, with Beijing (-3.6 per cent vs -3.3 per cent in July), Guangzhou (-10.1 per cent vs -9.9 per cent), Shenzhen (-8.2 per cent vs -8.0 per cent), Tianjin (-1.4 per cent vs -1.2 per cent), and Chongqing (-5.4 per cent vs -4.9 per cent) all seeing further price contractions.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Video Insights.

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In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I discussed the complex landscape for Australian consumers and the retail sector. While higher income earners are driving spending, lower income groups are tightening their belts, focusing on essentials like utilities and mortgages. Data from UBS and Finder reveals consumer trends remain resilient despite economic uncertainty. Retailers like JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) and Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) have shown strong performance by gaining market share, particularly through overseas expansion, whereas others, like Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN), have lagged. Looking ahead to Christmas and Black Friday sales, I expect steady spending from wealthier consumers, but a drop among lower-income households, highlighting the challenges ahead for the retail sector.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, TV Appearances.

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Back in June 24, the picture for Australian consumers was ominously darkening.  While Australia’s major lenders had reported only modest increases in mortgage defaults and house repossessions, data from the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) revealed Australia was on track to record the highest number of collapsed businesses in ten years, with businesses in the building game and in food services bearing the brunt of the impact from consumers ‘zipping up their wallets’. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.

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Australia is experiencing a population and demographic transformation, with nearly 50 per cent of our population able to claim at least one parent born overseas. George Tharenou of UBS analysed the implications in his recent report entitled “How will a ‘Big Australia’ impact the economy and the ‘intergenerational contract’?” The report dives deep into the effects of Australia’s population boom on the economy, asset prices, productivity, housing, and superannuation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick.

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