The Sahm Recession Indicator has signalled nine of the previous U.S. recessions over the past 65 years, and the move to 0.53 per cent in July 2024 is now pointing to the tenth. The indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the U.S. national unemployment rate (U-3) rises by 0.50 per cent or more relative to the minimum of the three-month average from the preceding 12 months.    Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics.

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Back in February, Breville Group’s (ASX:BRG) HY24 results divided the investment community. Despite improved gross margins and efficient cost control measures, revenue fell slightly short of consensus expectations, prompting some analysts to suggest the company should have engaged in more promotional (read: discounting) activity to drive sales. Of course, strategically, this can weaken a brand and its long-term value.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Small Caps.

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As you know, four-wheel drive (4WD) aftermarket parts and accessories manufacturer, distributor and retailer ARB Corporation (ASX:ARB) is one of the highest A1-quality companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). As we have written here at the blog many times, I believe, over time, investors will transition from seeing it as being dominated by the cyclicality of its Australian business to a global, vertically integrated growth story with the U.S. ultimately generating vastly more revenue than its local operations.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like.

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Ten years ago, radiology software company Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) was trading at just 86 cents. Yesterday, with a share price of $149, investors have seen their money grow over 17,000 per cent in a decade.  

The company supplies software technology used by radiologists (who are extremely expensive for hospitals to employ) for medical diagnoses, which also renders them more efficient.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.

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Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) healthcare leader CSL (ASX:CSL) posted a robust 11 per cent rise in sales from US$13.3 billion to US$14.8 billion, with CSL’s Behring segment, that markets products like immunoglobulin derived from blood plasma, contributing over 70 per cent of total sales. The company also reported a 21.8 per cent increase in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), a 24 per cent rise in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and a 15 per cent growth in net profit for 2024, after adjusting for currency fluctuations.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.

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Our domestic large-cap funds have maintained an underweight position in the banks, and even though the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) was, for a time, our largest position, being underweight in the sector has cost relative performance thanks to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s share price rallying as much as 23 per cent year-to-date and 35 per cent last financial year.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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It’s fascinating to read about the latest prognostications of those who manage billions of dollars of their own or others’ money.

I guess I must be a bit of a collector because I like to make lists of their comments for no other reason than to admire them against one another.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As a Gen Xer myself, it seems the press has left us behind, sandwiched as it were, between the Baby Boomers and Millennials. So, when an article purporting to describe me occasionally appears, I sit up and take notice. What do the media and financial experts think of my generation? Did they get it right? Or are they necessarily broad generalisations that don’t apply to me or my friends?  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick.

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