Financial markets are acting like a friend who says one thing but does another. Investors are sending conflicting messages about the economy, interest rates, and what’s coming next.

The mixed signals

Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by up to two per cent over this easing cycle. Trump of course, always the glutton, wants even more. That’s a big deal – rate cuts of this size usually happen when the economy is in trouble or heading into a recession. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment to boost a slowing economy. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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This morning on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, we unpacked the confusing signals coming from global markets. Despite geopolitical turmoil, rising inflation expectations, and forecasts of rate cuts – which usually signal economic weakness – equity markets are hitting all-time highs, credit spreads remain narrow, and liquidity appears abundant. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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This week I explored the growing warning signs lurking beneath the market’s strong performance. From ballooning U.S. fiscal deficits and overexposure to a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, to sky-high artificial intelligence (AI) valuations that echo the dot-com era – there are clear signals that caution is warranted.

While the current market resilience is impressive, now is the time to focus on quality stocks and diversifying your portfolio. Exploring alternative asset classes like private credit – which remains uncorrelated to public markets – could help investors navigate what comes next.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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In this video, we hear from Russell, an experienced professional who chose to invest in private credit for a specific, short-term goal. Unlike long-term investors, Russell needed access to his capital within a defined timeframe for a property purchase. His story highlights how private credit can offer a flexible, lower-volatility solution for investors with clear time horizons – especially when public markets may not be suitable. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Popular, TV Appearances.

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I joined Paul Turton this morning to unpack why markets are climbing despite geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds. Wall Street is edging toward record highs, encouraged by shifting perceptions of Trump’s policy agenda, including tax exemptions for U.S. tech giants. Surprisingly, markets have remained resilient amid high tariffs, Middle Eastern conflicts, and military tensions in Europe. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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In my latest article for Nabtrade, I explore why markets continue to climb despite ongoing global uncertainty.

Momentum in sectors like artificial intelligence (AI) and expectations of policy support are helping to overshadow global uncertainty. However, elevated valuations and Trump’s unpredictability suggest a degree of caution would still be wise for investors. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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TechnologyOne (ASX:TNE), has been a steady presence in the UK since 2006 but its recent transformation under a focused Software as a Service (SaaS) strategy has changed the firm’s earnings growth trajectory. After years of laying foundations in the education and local government sectors, the company is delivering robust growth and structural improvements that are now recognised by the market. With accelerating Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth and a supportive digital transformation backdrop, TechnologyOne’s UK operations are poised for sustained momentum. Continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this week’s video insight, I unpack the leaked Treasury report warning the Albanese Government that Australia’s budget cannot be sustainably repaired without both raising taxes and cutting spending. The report also casts doubt on the government’s ambitious housing targets, with rising construction costs and surging demand making them increasingly unrealistic. Political support for a ‘Big Australia’ is compounding the strain on housing supply and intensifying the cost of living crisis. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Video Insights.

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