Market Valuation
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Is AI making Meta a winner?
Roger Montgomery
November 5, 2026
If you hold units in a broad global index fund, shares in a global index ETF, or have global exposure in your Australian super fund, chances are you own a piece of both Meta Platforms and Alphabet (Google). Indeed, these two tech giants have long been dominant positions in most global portfolios.
A structural shift is now taking place behind the scenes, and it directly affects their relative revenue trajectories and market valuations. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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The AI funding window is closing: slowing revenue, IPO fails, and a bankrupt OpenAI
Roger Montgomery
October 21, 2026
For two years, Silicon Valley and global equity markets agreed that artificial intelligence (AI) is an uncapped frontier where aggressive capital deployment and unchecked spending would automatically yield exponential returns. Or, perhaps, equity markets believed the spin coming out of Silicon Valley.
Whichever scenario is true, reported operating results over the past week have confirmed the shift in sentiment toward AI.
Slowing revenue, public market pullbacks, and fluid enterprise strategies suggest the market’s appetite for unconstrained AI spending is finally hitting a ceiling. Investors have well and truly moved past the honeymoon phase and are demanding proof of a sustainable economic model. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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A U.S. view of Firmus
Roger Montgomery
October 19, 2026
Everyone seems to have jumped on the carcass of the Firmus Initial Public Offering (IPO) to dissect what went wrong. Since it was a local company listing on the domestic market, it’s understandable Australian news outlets and financial commentators have shown so much interest.
But while local commentators and media outlets continue to report on what would have become Australia’s largest-ever float, U.S. commentators are also responding. The difference is some are reading the pulled IPO through a far more ominous lens, one that says the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble is ending. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Too much AI, too little return?
Roger Montgomery
October 15, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the growing risks surrounding the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and whether the billions being invested in infrastructure can deliver sustainable returns. We explored the industry’s reliance on debt-funded hyperscalers and venture capital-backed startups, and how a slowdown in funding could trigger a domino effect across the sector. We also discussed the disappointing Firmus IPO, CoreWeave’s recent share price decline, and the risk of excess data centre capacity if demand fails to meet expectations.
Watch here: Too much Ai, too little return. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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Zitron goes feral on AI
Roger Montgomery
October 15, 2026
If only to arm you with arguments you might not be apprised of, it’s worth repeating artificial intelligence (AI) critic and author, Ed Zitron’s most recent warnings about the AI bubble, starting with a reference to the potential insolvency of OpenAI and Anthropic: continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
READ HERE -
ASX: From System Error to System Upgrade
Sean Sequeira
October 13, 2026
ASX (ASX:ASX) is a high-quality market infrastructure business with strong competitive advantages across listings, cash equities, derivatives, clearing and settlement and data services. Historically, these businesses generated attractive margins and relatively resilient earnings but the investment case deteriorated as years of underinvestment in technology became increasingly apparent. The most visible failure was the original CHESS (Clearing House Electronic Subregister System) replacement program, which was abandoned in 2022 after significant delays and write-offs, while subsequent operational incidents and regulatory scrutiny further damaged confidence in management and execution. The company also went through considerable leadership turnover with the most recent appointment being ASX’s third CEO in relatively quick succession. continue…
by Sean Sequeira Posted in Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Stocks We Like.
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MEDIA
The Australian – High interest rates and bond yields threaten global sharemarket rally
Roger Montgomery
October 12, 2026
In my article for The Australian, I explore why global bond yields continue to rise while equity markets remain largely unfazed. From persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions to growing government debt and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending, several forces are keeping interest rates elevated. I also examine whether expectations of AI-driven earnings growth can continue to support share prices, or whether higher borrowing costs will eventually weigh on equity valuations.
Download the article here: High interest rates and bond yields threaten global sharemarket rally continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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MEDIA
ABC Statewide Drive – Pressure builds across markets
Roger Montgomery
October 2, 2026
I joined Jess Maguire yesterday afternoon on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the sharp fall in the Australian share market, rising U.S. bond yields and the pressure higher rates can place on asset prices. We also discussed inflation and interest rates in Australia, before looking at the risks of company forecasts in isolation and why the combined growth expectations for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector may be difficult to achieve.
Listen from 1:46:38 on ABC Statewide Drive.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The playbook for a higher-inflation world
Roger Montgomery
October 1, 2026
I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss persistent inflation in the U.S., the impact of rising wages and services costs, and why the Federal Reserve may have limited room to ease rates. We also explored the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout, growing demand for capital and the pressure higher borrowing costs could place on hyperscalers, before discussing how private credit may fit within a higher-inflation environment. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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AI profits just became more urgent
Roger Montgomery
September 30, 2026
When you hear people talk about U.S. inflation, a popular narrative is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is essentially powerless. The argument goes that today’s sticky price pressures are almost entirely driven by outside supply shocks – things like new tariffs, volatile energy costs, and bottlenecks in tech hardware caused by the massive artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
