Market Valuation
-
Investors are selling the disruptors and the disrupted
Roger Montgomery
February 6, 2026
On December 18, in a blog entitled Time Magazine Cover Curse, I wrote, “…Gracing the cover of the [TIME] mag isn’t a coronation but a harbinger of doom, because the moment a public figure has permeated the public discourse sufficiently to land the cover, the trajectory inevitably reverses.”
Politicians have suffered landslide defeats after being featured on the cover, as have business tycoons whose stocks plummet, and celebrities whose reputations are assassinated under sudden, intense scrutiny. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Investing Education, Market Valuation.
-
MEDIA
Soaring stocks hide U.S. fragility as gold surge sends warning to investors
Roger Montgomery
February 5, 2026
The strength of U.S. stock markets would have any reasonable investor believing all is well with the world and that U.S. exceptionalism is alive and well.
Yet, the stock market’s buoyancy belies the head-spinning conga line of events over the first month of 2026 that would, at any other time in history, have caused the market to plunge or coincided with it.
Take gold’s 17 per cent ascent so far this month, which follows a 66 per cent rise in 2025. Such moves are unusual. Since gold began trading freely in the 1970s, the average annual return for gold has been roughly 6-8 per cent. January’s return doubles that annual number.
This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
-
MEDIA
ABC Nightlife – from metals to mega caps: volatility returns to markets
Roger Montgomery
February 4, 2026
Gold prices jumped as much as 20 per cent in January before falling this month, while silver, after rising 250 per cent over 13 months, dropped 20 per cent in just days, raising the question of whether the boom is over or volatility will continue. Last night on ABC Nightlife with Philip Clark, I discussed these moves alongside why markets are no longer responding logically to geopolitical headlines, as massive passive index flows and belief in US exceptionalism keep equities elevated. I also explained how index investing has driven extreme concentration in mega-cap tech stocks and why that dominance is now starting to unwind as investors reassess who will truly benefit from artificial intelligence (AI).
Tune into the segment from 07:12 here: ABC Nightlife
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.
-
Montgomery Small Companies Fund 2025 year in review
Scott Phillips
January 27, 2026
2025 was a strong year for small companies and for the Montgomery Small Companies Fund. In this detailed video, I’m joined by Gary Rollo, Co-Portfolio Manager of the Montgomery Small Companies Fund to review the Fund’s performance, key market drivers, and the outlook for small caps and growth companies heading into 2026. continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Companies, Economics, Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.
-
Navigating liquidity – Michael Howell’s 2026 outlook
Roger Montgomery
January 20, 2026
As we kick off 2026, I turned to UK-based Crossborder Capital’s latest global liquidity update by Michael Howell, noting booms and bubbles cannot occur without ample liquidity. The artificial intelligence (AI) boom was born of liquidity. Without ample central bank accommodation, we would not even be talking about AI, perhaps not even whispering about it except in a few university laboratories.
According to Howell, the 2026 financial landscape is a stage set for drama. His latest view on the prospects for crypto and risk assets in 2026 argues that while monetary inflation is here to stay as governments’ go-to fix for fiscal/budget woes, a looming downswing in global liquidity could produce turbulence for risk assets. Drawing from his analysis of cycles, correlations, and historical patterns, he likes positions in gold and cryptocurrencies as essential hedges – but advises investors to buy on dips. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
-
WHITEPAPER
HIGHER RETURNS AND LOWER RISK? YES, IT’S POSSIBLE WITH PRIVATE CREDIT
Discover how private credit can deliver higher returns with lower risk in our latest whitepaper. Learn how the Aura Core Income Fund’s AA equivalent rated portfolio has consistently outperformed while maintaining transparency and robust risk management. Unlock the insights to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns today.
READ HERE -
Farewell 2025, Hello 2026
David Buckland
January 2, 2026
As we turn the page on 2025, it is a useful time to step back and reflect on what shaped markets over the year just passed. In this article, I review the key themes that influenced global equities, interest rates, commodities, and currencies, highlighting where investors were rewarded, where conditions became more challenging, and what these developments may mean as we look ahead. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular.
-
MEDIA
Get set for a bumpy 2026
Roger Montgomery
January 2, 2026
In my latest article for Firstlinks, I reflect on why 2025 delivered another strong year for equities, supported by the continued combination of disinflation and positive economic growth – with much of the strength driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI).
However, I note that as the gap between valuations and realistic long-term returns continues to widen, the road ahead is likely to become bumpy.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet.
-
Markets at a crossroads
Roger Montgomery
December 24, 2025
Goldman Sachs Research represents one of the largest stockbroking firms in the world. So, it should come as no surprise that the investment bank has recently published its stock market outlook for the next decade, predicting an average annual return of almost eight per cent.
But if you’ve grown accustomed to smooth and steady gains, you may need to recalibrate your expectations, despite Goldman Sachs’ reassurances. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
-
Bitcoin has crashed. Could AI be next?
Roger Montgomery
November 26, 2025
The father of a field of mathematics known as fractal geometry, Benoit Mandelbrot, in his fantastic book, The (Mis)behaviour of Markets, observed that market price movements, unlike the smooth curves assumed in traditional financial models, are jagged and irregular, meaning that large price swings are more frequent than expected, and periods of high volatility can be followed by more high volatility. His work provides a more realistic framework for understanding and modeling risk, noting also that volatility in markets tends to cluster.
In my experience, I’ve observed those volatility clusters often mark turning points in markets. To be clear, not all periods of heightened volatility are turning points, but almost all turning points are accompanied by greater volatility. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
-
How General Purpose Technology Booms end – Part Two
Roger Montgomery
November 24, 2025
In this final part of my two-part series on General Purpose Technology (GPT) booms, I explain how these cycles typically end. History shows that even world-changing technologies – from cars to commercial flight – delivered poor outcomes for most early investors. This is because technology trends eventually run into the reality that customers don’t spend money in a straight line (their demand rises and falls), and also the concept of “creative destruction” (wherein new technology leads to the obsolescence of outdated products). These cycles are exactly why it’s important to diversify and regularly rebalance your portfolio. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.
