Market commentary
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How alarmed should we be about rising levels of debt?
David Buckland
April 13, 2018
According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt hit US$237 trillion in the December 2017 Quarter, over 310 per cent of GDP of US$76 trillion. Global debt levels are at record highs in dollar terms and in relation to GDP. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Jeremy Grantham says beware the market ‘melt-up’
Roger Montgomery
April 11, 2018
Alas, there’s no magic signal to tell us when this market could savagely correct. The latest note of caution comes from famed US investor, Jeremy Grantham. He believes we are seeing a ‘melt-up’ in the stock market – the final stages of a great bubble near to bursting. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Investors beware: the warning light has begun to flash amber
Roger Montgomery
April 3, 2018
Warren Buffett recently observed that markets can quickly turn from green to red, without pausing at yellow. It was a veiled warning that when valuations are at extremes – as they are today – it doesn’t take much to trigger something serious. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What to Watch
Roger Montgomery
March 23, 2018
We have often written about the boom in non-income producing assets – such as collectibles – and the associated world record prices, as being a sign of the very late stages of a credit cycle. Eventually, the boom will unwind – it always does – and one consistent signal has usually been investors pulling back from one asset class even while other asset classes continue to party. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Dividends. What’s all the fuss?
Roger Montgomery
March 15, 2018
In the last few days Opposition Labor Leader Bill Shorten has proposed a radical transformation of dividend imputation. Putting aside his mistaken belief that his voters are “Aussie Battlers”- when in fact they are hard-working small business owners and contractors, many of whom receive franked dividends from their business endeavors – it’s worth looking at what all the fuss is about… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Roger Montgomery
March 5, 2018
The market ructions in early February were a genuine ‘shot-across-the-bows’ – a warning to investors about the longevity of easy credit, soaring asset prices and ultra-low volatility. That’s why, with markets potentially on the verge of a big reversal, we think it’s prudent to hold more cash. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Could a US housing crisis happen here?
Roger Montgomery
March 1, 2018
There is one common theme in the vast number of financial crises the world has seen – excessive debt. So, with Australia’s ratio of household debt to disposable income approaching 200 per cent, it’s time for investors to get super-cautious. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Property.
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A crash is coming, and Jim Rogers says it will be a doozy
Roger Montgomery
February 23, 2018
Legendary investor, Jim Rogers, is a famed perma-bear. But this month Rogers stepped it up. He predicted that the next bear market will be “the worst in our lifetime”, fueled by a world that is laden with debt, and that it will occur within the next two years.
continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Should Australia cut the corporate tax rate?
Andreas Lundberg
February 19, 2018
Right now, there’s a debate raging about the need to cut corporate tax rates in Australia. As usual, some of the arguments are overly simplified, if not misleading. The questions are: would a tax cut deliver the benefits spruiked by the government, and who would benefit the most? Let’s take a look. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Beware the pitfalls of speculating on this market
Roger Montgomery
February 19, 2018
Most of us know of the volatility index, otherwise known as the VIX. But the inverse index – the XIV – was little known until a recent story surfaced about a trader who lost $4 million when the XIV lost 96 per cent of its value in one day. It was a sobering reminder that this bull market can’t roll on forever. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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