Market commentary

Late last year, I discussed some of the main arguments underpinning a bearish outlook for the Australian consumer and, in turn, major bank loan book growth. But what about the counter argument? In particular, could the tightening labour market create stronger wage growth and thereby boost consumption? continue…

by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.

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As 2017 has drawn to a close, let’s take a look at the year that was. Excluding dividends, the Australian market put on 7.8 per cent in 2017, and 7.0 per cent in the six months to December.  Over the year, several indices did significantly better, including the Hong Kong Hang Seng up 36.0 per cent, the US Nasdaq up 28.2 per cent, the Indian Sensex up 27.9 per cent, the New Zealand Gross 50 up 22.0 per cent, the US S&P 500 up 19.4 per cent and the Japanese Nikkei 225 up 19.1 per cent. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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For some time, we have outlined our concerns regarding the growing constraints on the Australian household sector due to various elements. In the first part of a two-part blog I will identify one argument. Will the slowing or a reversal of household wealth creation have negative implications for many companies?

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by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.

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Recently we have been fascinated by the inexorable rise in the share prices of tech companies. You might recall we’ve written about, and looked with suspicion at, the combined market value of US$140 billion for Tesla, Uber and Twitter, despite a combined profit of zero. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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For the first time in 20 years, 2-year US government interest rates have gone above 2-year Australian government interest rates. This is a significant turning point, and could signal the start of a new economic phase. Australian investors will need to be mindful of the consequences. continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Right now, investors are facing two options: invest in the market’s momentum, while acknowledging that low returns are likely; or step aside, given the risk of low returns and higher volatility.  Of late, we’ve chosen the latter option, as we are convinced it is the rational approach.  But many investors seem to disagree. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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There’s a pithy marketing one-liner that has almost single-handedly produced a multi-billion dollar index-fund and ETF industry. It goes something like this; ‘Most active fund managers underperform the index.’ continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.

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You may have noticed there’s a new paradigm being discussed in investment circles – that inflation and interest rates may never rise again. This paradigm has been accompanied by a wave of irrational exuberance, with prices of various assets breaking records by the day. At Montgomery, we are concerned this could all end in tears so, for now, we will swim against the tide. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Anyone with more than 10 years’ investing experience has seen this before – stocks going up with nary a hint of concern nor any willingness to fall.  And look around – it’s not just stocks.  A whole range of luxury goods are hitting record prices.  Property, watches, wine, cars, art, jewellery.  Is it time to be cautious?  You bet. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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We make no claim to be accurate forecasters of market booms and crashes.  That’s because, in the very long run, successful value investing does not require an ability to predict markets or economies.  But when respected people like Nobel Laureate economist, Professor Robert J. Shiller, put pen to paper about a looming bear market, we find it pays to listen up. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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