Insightful Insights

A couple of weeks ago at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Ray Dalio spoke with CNBC.  Prominent economic thinkers in Davos believe the U.S. economy is strong, but its ability to deal with the next crisis is in doubt. “The U.S. is growing and I think that’s a non-debatable fact,” Gary Cohn, president of Goldman Sachs, said Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. “What I am concerned about is the actual ability of the U.S. to raise rates with what’s going on with the rest of the world.”  Below, we summarise the outtakes.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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In late 2013,  I wrote a number of blogs on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) concluding that unless the industry cost structure in Australia changes and productivity improves, there are unlikely to be any new offshore “green field” LNG projects, except for Floating LNG facilities. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications.

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There is a definite element of contrarianism to value investing. Not always of course, but sometimes the market’s negative reaction, to news that is of a temporary nature, prices the shares of a company as if the problem were permanent. Going against the tide in these cases can produce very satisfactory investment outcomes. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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For the past few months we have written regularly about the headwinds facing the retail sector. Numerous retailers have downgraded sales and earnings, which were subsequently followed by share price declines. On Monday however, one listed retailer separated itself from the pack with the most sobering trading update yet. Kathmandu (ASX: KMD) has historically been favoured by Montgomery Investment Management. Yet with a business model that has a high degree of operational leverage, we were quick to exit the position in 2014 as it became clear that the company would not be immune to the deteriorating industry conditions. We have discussed the concept of operational leverage on many occasions. Retailers are subject to high levels of fixed costs such as rent, wages and electricity, which means that any price discounting will have a profound impact on the bottom line: a one per cent reduction in gross margin can often translate into a five per cent reduction in earnings. continue…

by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.

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I didn’t think the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut just yet. David Buckland however did. You can find his call on the video. But it makes no difference to our investment strategy or long term results if we are right or wrong. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.

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Chris Joye (who wrote this piece about Montgomery) and whom I regard extremely highly, has written a useful piece for the Australian Financial Review today, which he has also distributed via email. It’s a piece that yield hungry investors MUST read. Too much money can be lost by not heeding his words and we couldn’t have written it better ourselves. Chris’ email reads below:

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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We consider Carsales.com (ASX:CAR) to be one of the highest quality businesses on the ASX and has been favoured by Montgomery Investment Management for a number of years. Yet in September 2014, we exited our position based on a number of concerns which we detailed here. continue…

by Ben MacNevin Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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It’s official. European consumer prices fell an annual 0.2 per cent in December 2014. German five-year bonds and Swiss ten-year bonds are now paying a “negative rate of interest.” European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi continues to “do whatever it takes” with last week’s announcement of the 1,100 billion euro (US$1,250 billion) bond purchase program over 2015 and 2016. Mario thinks this will steer the Euro area away from deflation by convincing investors his latest strategy is audacious enough to stimulate their relatively fragile economy. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.

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Here is a simple investing rule: share prices will follow a business’ profitability over the long term. In the words of Warren Buffett, “Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio’s market value”. continue…

by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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The slump in the oil price since mid-2014 has seen global inflation rates continue to trend down. European consumer prices fell an annual 0.2 per cent in December 2014 and European Central Bank president continues to “do whatever it takes” by unveiling a 1,100 billion Euro (US$1,250 billion) bond buying program over 2015-2016. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.

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