Global markets
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When catalysts aren’t catalysts – a look into the causes of market corrections
Roger Montgomery
March 31, 2025
I recently met with a young investor and trader, who was just beginning their market journey. During our conversation, he noted he was currently biased towards a market correction but was waiting for a catalyst.
The idea that a catalyst is required for a stock market correction is a flawed one. Corrections can occur without an apparent trigger – just ask those people still debating the cause of the 1987 crash (also known as Black Monday), a severe unexpected stock market crash leading to a worldwide loss of ~US$1.71 trillion).
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Trump’s tariff gambit – reshaping global trade or stirring economic chaos?
Roger Montgomery
March 21, 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump has embarked on what some say is a belligerent and dangerous mission to upend and reshape the international economic and competitive landscape through a series of aggressive tariff policy changes. His approach which is characterised by sudden shifts and strategic reversals, aims to bolster American manufacturing and fill government coffers. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Red light, green light – equity markets stalling or pedal to the metal?
Roger Montgomery
March 20, 2025
Back in February in our blog article Disinflation’s Bumpy Road we wrote: “With valuations now appreciably higher than at the beginning of 2023 and 2024, and now arguably stretched in parts of the market – particularly in high-growth tech – investors had been counting on rate cuts to justify further gains. But if the Fed remains on hold, or worse, if markets begin to price in a “higher for longer” scenario, equity risk premiums might have to adjust.”
The ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) appear to be rolling in neutral gear, with an observable slowing in earnings growth. To be clear, earnings are still growing but the rate of growth is slowing down. So what does this all mean? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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Fat tails indicate that the S&P 500 is unexpectedly strong
Roger Montgomery
March 19, 2025
It hasn’t been widely reported (which could, of course, mean I am about to repeat the common mistake of reading too much into a central banker’s utterances), but earlier in March, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, dropped a subtle remark that may shed light on the central bank’s mindset. As the Federal Reserve heads into its meeting this week, Powell’s words may also carry weight for the unpredictable economic road ahead. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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The three key influences of market performance
Roger Montgomery
March 19, 2025
In this week’s video insight, I explore the three key influences of market performance – inflation, economic growth, and liquidity – and how they can adversely or positively affect the market. In January and February this year we have already seen; the launch of a Chinese LLM (Large Language Model) which created waves in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) space, Trump’s imposition of tariffs (across China, Canada, Mexio and Europe), rising inflation, and increased geopolitical tension. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Has the bull run its course?
Roger Montgomery
March 18, 2025
It’s been a record run for stocks. The past two years delivered historic returns for global and U.S. stocks. Indeed, the 24- months ending 31 December 2024 ranks as one of the top 10 two-year periods since the middle of last century. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Tariff tantrums
Roger Montgomery
March 14, 2025
The front-of-mind topic for investors, now that reporting season is over, is what Trump’s trade wars and tariffs, the potential of an end to AI-related stock leadership, and general volatility mean for the stock market’s outlook. Today we touch on one of the bullish arguments I came across in my readings. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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What goes up must come down
Roger Montgomery
March 12, 2025
Seasoned equities investors are always prepared for the rollercoaster ride that markets can deliver, but the post-U.S.-Presidential-election period has delivered a particularly dizzying ride, especially for those riding the ‘Trump Bump’. Is it over? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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China’s rising tensions – lessons from historical parallels
Roger Montgomery
March 11, 2025
I am somewhat aghast to read of the latest tweet from the Chinese embassy in the United States. It reminds me of a disturbing historical pattern of conflict and caused me to consider the similarities with past pre-war triggers. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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With all the current talk of a stockmarket correction, you might have entirely missed another example of irrational exuberance followed by despondency. What we have here is another period that offered an important lesson for investors – the need to adapt.