Global markets

This U.S. summer, a new investment frenzy – akin to the SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) exuberance of 2020/21 – has gripped Wall Street as companies transform their balance sheets into crypto vaults. And as September unfolds, the corporate dash into cryptocurrencies shows no signs of slowing.

From Japanese hotel operators to chipmakers, tech startups, and legacy manufacturers, they have all funnelled tens of billions into Bitcoin and altcoins, reimagining their cash reserves as bets on digital assets. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, Global markets, Market commentary.

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CrossBorder Capital’s latest report by founder Michael Howell paints an ominous picture of a maturing global liquidity cycle, raising concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) waning role in providing liquidity (the fuel for market and asset rises) has negative implications for markets and the U.S. economy.

Howell’s analysis concentrates on the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut was delivered alongside hints of further cuts, consistent with Trump’s demands. Yet, he labels this a “hawkish cut,” emphasising the Fed’s tough stance on liquidity. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, incoming appointee Stephen Miran, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are reportedly aligned in their push to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet and minimise its market influence. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Anecdotal evidence. Dismissed as mostly irrelevant, anecdotal evidence becomes useful often only in hindsight. Until then, it’s a novelty, statistically unsound, unreliable, lacking objectivity and unverifiable.

But boy, it’s fun to inquire.

That was then

In the 1920s, the stock market was ‘roaring’, enjoying widespread optimism and even euphoria amid new innovations. On October 15, 1929, after the market had experienced a nine-year rise, the first celebrity Yale economist, Irving Fisher, gave a speech in New York City. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Last week, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published a piece commenting on the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure frenzy. As an investor, one can’t help but be awestruck while also feeling concern and a more than a hint of déjà vu.

According to the WSJ, Ellendale, North Dakota, is a sleepy town of just 1,100 now playing host to a half-built AI data centre that’s will be larger than 10 Home Depots – the U.S. equivalent of a large format Bunnings Warehouse here in Australia. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Since inflation peaked at 9.1 per cent in mid-2022, consumer prices have cooled dramatically, job growth has dwindled from nearly 4 per cent annually to a meagre 0.9 per cent, nominal gross domestic product (GDP) expansion has halved from 10 per cent to 4.6 per cent, and commodity prices have dropped 15 per cent. Despite all of this, bond yields have stubbornly refused to ease. Mainly hovering between 4 per cent and 5 per cent – and sitting at around 4 per cent today – bullish investors argue these yields are oddly, and unjustifiably, detached from the underlying economic slowdown. Real activity has tapered and consumer price index (CPI) inflation has plummeted to 2.9 per cent. So why haven’t yields collapsed? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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If you’re tracking equities, it’s vital to keep an eye on the bond markets, as they’re signalling genuine unease. That nervousness is now rippling through global economies. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Investors are debating a number of scenarios. One is that Trump will install enough cronies on the board of the U.S. Federal Reserve that rates will be cut as many as five times in the next year. Supporters believe this could be incredibly bullish for markets, especially equities. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I recently penned a blog post in which I highlighted the market-related concerns of American economist, chess Grandmaster, professor of international economics at Harvard University, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist and co-author of This Time is Different: Eight centuries of Financial Folly, Kenneth Rogoff. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Kenneth Rogoff, the American economist, chess Grandmaster, professor of international economics at Harvard University, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist and co-author of This Time is Different: Eight centuries of Financial Folly, has spent his career chronicling the anatomy of financial collapses. In his latest article for Foreign Affairs (Sep/Oct 2025), Rogoff issues a stark warning: the U.S. is flirting with a once-in-a-century debt crisis – and its current political and economic trajectory makes a crisis not just possible, but probable. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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In what some have described as a ‘dramatic’ 218-214 vote, the U.S. House narrowly passed President Trump’s US$3.4 trillion “Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a nearly 900-page tax-and-spending package that does mark a major victory for Trump and GOP (Republican Party) leaders. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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