Global markets
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Fat tails indicate that the S&P 500 is unexpectedly strong
Roger Montgomery
March 19, 2025
It hasn’t been widely reported (which could, of course, mean I am about to repeat the common mistake of reading too much into a central banker’s utterances), but earlier in March, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, dropped a subtle remark that may shed light on the central bank’s mindset. As the Federal Reserve heads into its meeting this week, Powell’s words may also carry weight for the unpredictable economic road ahead. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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The three key influences of market performance
Roger Montgomery
March 19, 2025
In this week’s video insight, I explore the three key influences of market performance – inflation, economic growth, and liquidity – and how they can adversely or positively affect the market. In January and February this year we have already seen; the launch of a Chinese LLM (Large Language Model) which created waves in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) space, Trump’s imposition of tariffs (across China, Canada, Mexio and Europe), rising inflation, and increased geopolitical tension. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Has the bull run its course?
Roger Montgomery
March 18, 2025
It’s been a record run for stocks. The past two years delivered historic returns for global and U.S. stocks. Indeed, the 24- months ending 31 December 2024 ranks as one of the top 10 two-year periods since the middle of last century. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Tariff tantrums
Roger Montgomery
March 14, 2025
The front-of-mind topic for investors, now that reporting season is over, is what Trump’s trade wars and tariffs, the potential of an end to AI-related stock leadership, and general volatility mean for the stock market’s outlook. Today we touch on one of the bullish arguments I came across in my readings. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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What goes up must come down
Roger Montgomery
March 12, 2025
Seasoned equities investors are always prepared for the rollercoaster ride that markets can deliver, but the post-U.S.-Presidential-election period has delivered a particularly dizzying ride, especially for those riding the ‘Trump Bump’. Is it over? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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China’s rising tensions – lessons from historical parallels
Roger Montgomery
March 11, 2025
I am somewhat aghast to read of the latest tweet from the Chinese embassy in the United States. It reminds me of a disturbing historical pattern of conflict and caused me to consider the similarities with past pre-war triggers. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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The ripple effect of cheap Chinese goods: unveiling the global plastic waste crisis
Roger Montgomery
December 9, 2024
A wave of inexpensive Chinese products flooding the developing world is reportedly stirring tensions towards China and countries beyond Europe and the U.S. As Beijing seeks to forge alliances amid escalating trade disputes with the U.S., it asks developing nations to absorb its excess manufacturing output. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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MEDIA
Clear and present danger to sharemarkets posed by Republican presidencies
Roger Montgomery
November 25, 2024
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, In the Press.
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The character of a President
Roger Montgomery
November 6, 2024
As the world watches the U.S. vote, it turns the page on a new and arguably uncertain chapter. I have just read a startling essay about Donald Trump’s character. One marvels at Americans’ willingness to vote for such a person as President. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Popular.
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How will the U.S. election impact stock markets?
Roger Montgomery
November 5, 2024
We first published this blog back in August, but that might have been a little premature. With the U.S. voting for their next president in 24 hours, we think publishing today is more timely. Enjoy.
While the U.S. presidential campaign is entertaining to watch from afar (and more than a little disturbing this time around), spare a thought for our friends in the U.S. who have to sort through the rhetoric, lies, and assassination attempts to select their leader for the next four years. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Immediately after Donald Trump’s election as the next president of the United States, market analysts began exploring historical correlations to assess potential implications for investors.