Global markets

I have often thought it is better to have qualifications in psychology rather than accounting, finance, or economics when it comes to being a successful, patient investor.  

Four years ago, on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were smashed in a short time, with many indexes declining 30 to 40 per cent over February/ March 2020. In hindsight, opportunities became plentiful, however the ensuing “pandemic-related enthusiasm” was often misplaced. Hence, it is crucial to discern between a fad and something more permanent.   continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Last year, investors who held a non-consensus bullish stance on equities saw their optimism rewarded as the market trended up through 2023. As we pivot into 2024, the outlook might appear to be more complex, but in reality, the preconditions remain the same: disinflation accompanied by positive economic growth. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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There’s no fundamental reason for bitcoin to rise other than it is becoming more popular. But as we all know, a shift in sentiment, while usually unpredictable, can have a meaningful impact on the listed price of an asset. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.

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The good news on the recent deceleration in inflationary expectations is many major central banks have likely finished tightening their official cash rates. The five English-speaking central banks tabled below have, on average, tightened on 12 separate occasions to 5.07 per cent. Australia is the outlier, at 4.35 per cent. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets.

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Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures. However, China’s consumer prices fell for the third consecutive month in December 2023, delaying the expected rebound in economic activity following the lifting of COVID-19 controls. For calendar year 2023, CPI growth was negligible, whilst the producer price index declined by 3.0 per cent. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets.

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In January this year, a veritable conga-line of economists and strategists were publishing their forecasts for the year ahead, as they do every year. Now, safely at the other end of the 2023 calendar, we have the luxury of testing the prescience of these clairvoyants. Here at Montgomery, we play the ball rather than play the man, so we won’t be naming any of the forecasters, but rest assured, these are all prognostications that were published and distributed in January this year. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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For investors, the last four years have seen some remarkable events, which have had a profound impact on equity markets globally. Volatility has been elevated on both the ups and downs. The global pandemic that began in early 2020 induced a sharp correction as the initial curtailment of day-to-day activity became apparent. This reversed quite rapidly with many listed companies posting outsized gains as they benefitted from changing behaviours. continue…

by Polen Capital Posted in Global markets, Polen Capital.

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In this week’s video insight, I delve into the discussions surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s proactive approach to inflation, the nuanced shifts in major economies, and the potential impacts of tightening monetary policies. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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Back in July, I wrote about the historically large gap between large and small-cap companies, noting that the extremely narrow rally in the largest technology companies, now more commonly referred to as the Magnificent Seven, resulted in many smaller caps being relatively undervalued. The highest-quality names with earnings growth may present a compelling opportunity, especially if professional investors conclude the macroeconomic and interest-rate backdrop is supportive. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Since late October, financial markets have witnessed a significant shift, adjusting to a softer labour market and persistent disinflation. As an aside, the latter – disinflation – was a condition we wrote about a year ago, suggesting it should support the share prices of innovative growth companies, especially those with pricing power. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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