Global markets
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Have we reached peak economy?
Roger Montgomery
May 11, 2021
As world economies start to bounce back after their COVID-19 lockdowns, inflation is back on the agenda. Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, thinks the current spike is transitory. Time will tell if he’s right. But whether it’s transitory or persistent, inflation will impact stock market returns. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Could Biden’s latest pronouncement spell the end of the Bull Market?
Roger Montgomery
April 24, 2021
Tax is a very powerful driver of behaviour. For local evidence we only need to look at Australian property prices. While long-term, immigration drives property prices, and in the shorter-term access to credit, these influences occur under the umbrella of very favourable tax conditions combined with the willingness of banks, regulators and the government to allow buyers to use massive amounts of leverage to purchase their main residence. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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Which sectors could suffer if we cut our reliance on China?
Andreas Lundberg
April 1, 2021
China is Australia’s largest trading partner, taking almost one-third of our exports. But, after repeated economic actions – such as the imposition of high tariffs and import restrictions on some of our goods – it’s clear we need to reduce our dependence on China. In the short to medium term, that could be painful for some sectors of our economy. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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What CCP’s results say about the health of the economy
Andreas Lundberg
February 4, 2021
Credit Corp (ASX: CCP), which is a buyer of debt, is a company we follow quite closely. Apart from being a potential investment, CCP’s fortunes provide a keen insight into the level of financial stress in the real economy. So, the company’s recent results were a good indicator of where we are at. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market commentary.
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The winners and losers of 2020
Scott Phillips
January 13, 2021
A lot will be written about events in calendar year 2020 and the impact COVID-19 had on many facets of our lives, not to mention the huge volatility in financial markets. Interestingly, when we look in isolation at the calendar year returns of the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index (which includes the returns from dividends), the market was up a tiny 1.4 per cent. continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Don’t poke the China bear
David Buckland
December 16, 2020
The Reserve Bank of Australia is taking us down the Japanese and European path, obsessed with record low interest rates whilst spending little time on productivity growth. Following “emergency low interest rates” of 3.0 per cent during the Global Financial Crisis, the current 0.1 per cent cash rate is causing havoc amongst the retired generation, which number 4 million people or 15 per cent of our population. This generation unfortunately face Hobsons choice of going up the risk curve, often speculating on risk assets, or eating into their capital. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets.
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How Pfizer’s vaccine will affect stocks in your portfolio
Roger Montgomery
November 12, 2020
Wow, what a week! Pfizer announces it has a vaccine almost set to go, and hasn’t the market reacted! Happily for our investors, The Montgomery Fund has already pivoted towards a post-pandemic world: we’ve cut cash to a record low and invested in some businesses beaten down by enforced lockdowns. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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What the US election result means for investors
Roger Montgomery
November 10, 2020
When Joe Biden emerged as the 46th US president, democratic nations including Germany, Japan and the UK are reported to have breathed a collective sigh of relief. Political leanings aside, what does Biden’s win mean for investors, and how might it affect a rotation out of growth and into value or cyclical stocks? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Why investors shouldn’t fear a Biden victory
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2020
As the world anxiously awaits the result of the upcoming US presidential election, many commentators have predicted that a Democrat win will have an adverse effect on stock market returns. But some recent polling suggests that any negative impact will not be that great. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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Why growth stocks could keep rising
Roger Montgomery
October 27, 2020
The share prices of growth companies – particularly quality businesses such as the much heralded FAAMGs – have been on a tear since March. How much further could they go? Well, quite a bit further I think, if rates stay low and governments keep providing financial support. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
