Foreign Currency
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Hard Landings
Roger Montgomery
November 6, 2015
Australians should have all eyes focused on China. China is the dog upon whose tail Australia is attached and our view, as you know, has been that the country would slow dramatically as it tries to rebalance from an economy heavily dependent on fixed asset formation to one reliant on the consumer. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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The great China slowdown – part 3
David Buckland
October 27, 2015
China cut its interest rates for the sixth time in less than a year as the economy grew by 6.9 per cent in the September 2015 Quarter, its lowest growth rate in 25 years. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Liberating our Malaise
Roger Montgomery
October 9, 2015
It’s hard not to think that the very intense spotlight being shined upon the US dollar makes it a key determinant of market direction in the near term.
Keeping in mind that none of this has any bearing on our investment process – which focuses our resources on the identification of high quality business, those with bright prospects, trading at rational prices – let’s take a quick look at how the currency might influence markets. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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China Cracks
Roger Montgomery
September 9, 2015
As you already know, we have been very negative about China, it’s impact on iron ore and coal and ultimately Australia, for several years. We also avoid many, if not all Chinese companies listed in Australia or the United States because auditors can not give unqualified opinions about the numbers because China’s deems them a state secret. And finally we have often questioned the accuracy of China’s economic data, particularly GDP – which remarkably is released at the end of a quarter before the US releases their number.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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The Carnival is Over (with apologies to The Seekers)
David Buckland
August 19, 2015
We have discussed the mean reversion of Australia’s Terms of Trade on numerous occasions. After peaking at 118.5 Index Points in the September 2011 Quarter, the series seems to be doing the round trip back to its five and a half decade average of sub 70 Index Points. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Are you worried about China’s job market?
Ben MacNevin
July 27, 2015
As the largest online job boards in China, you would expect management of Zhaopin and 51Job to have keen awareness of the Chinese economy. Yet like most commentators on China’s prospects, the view from the top is quite divergent. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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The Greek Tragedy continues
David Buckland
July 14, 2015
Our friends at CITI hosted a conference call on Monday with Citi Chief Economist Willem Buiter joined by George Papandreou, the former Greek Prime Minister; Filippos Sachinidis, the former Greek Finance Minister; Jose Barroso, the former President of the European Commission and the former Prime Minister of Portugal. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency.
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Inefficient Allocation of Capital
Ben MacNevin
July 9, 2015
By now you should have heard about the rout that is occurring in China’s stock market. One critical factor which you may not be aware of is the exposure of Chinese companies to the market. And we’re not talking about a listed company’s share price decline here. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Shanghai Stock Exchange in Ultimo
Scott Phillips
July 9, 2015
Many have recently seen the picture of the Chinese fruiterer trading the equity market at his ramshackle cart. Last week I had my own experience of a Chinese immigrant taxi driver who was ferrying me from the city back to Ultimo. continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Watch out for rising bond yields (Part 2)
David Buckland
June 15, 2015
In my blog dated 6 May 2015, I cautioned investors on the recent increase in ten year sovereign bond yields. Unsurprisingly interest rate sensitive and yield driven stocks have reacted negatively. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
