Foreign Currency
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Be Alert and Alarmed!
Roger Montgomery
April 20, 2015
If you think Sydney’s record auction clearance rate is high, have a look at the number of billionaire hedge fund managers warning the US Federal Reserve to wait before raising rates, lest it be a mistake from which reversal will not be easy nor pretty. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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The World according to Bass
Roger Montgomery
April 1, 2015
In Kyle Bass we find an investor who looks at what everyone else is looking at but sees what nobody else has seen. That’s the primary reason why we are always interested in what he has to say. His profitable – and very large – bets against US credit default swaps and then against Europe and Greece suggests his thoughts are worth paying attention to. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Beware the strong US dollar
David Buckland
March 31, 2015
The strongly rising US Dollar recorded in the six months to December 2014 has continued into the first three months of 2015. Given the strength of the US economy relative to its major trading partners it seems this trend has a good prospect of continuing. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Beware the strong US Dollar Part 1
David Buckland
March 18, 2015
The US Dollar has appreciated by nearly 16 per cent against major currencies so far in 2015, when compared to its average level over 2012-2014. Our friends at Deutsche Bank have calculated that for every 10 per cent appreciation in the US Dollar versus major currencies, earnings on the S&P 500 would be hit by 2.5 per cent. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Which Aussie stock will benefit from European QE?
Roger Montgomery
March 13, 2015
Our good friends at UBS recently released a report with an interesting insight into the general market impact of the European Central Bank’s Quantitative Easing (QE) program.
It’s easy, if not lazy, for Australian investors to simply think Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Angela Merkel are all “over there”, and therefore not relevant to Australian investors, but that is not the case. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Will 2015 be the year Australia enters a recession?
Roger Montgomery
February 20, 2015
This week the question, whether 2015 will be the year Australian enters a recession, was asked by one of our subscribers, here is what I had to say in response: continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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China Watch #2
Roger Montgomery
February 19, 2015
Recently Australian Financial Review Journalist Angus Grigg reported an interesting admission by a director at China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). It’s a big deal for a SAFE official to be making such statements publicly.
Here’s the highlights: continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Will the Greeks wreck your retirement?
Roger Montgomery
February 17, 2015
On Monday night, the US markets were closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday but Greece was not sleeping comfortably.
To understand whether there are risks to your wealth from Greece’s posturing (and remember the US markets return to work tonight) it pays to understand where we are currently and how we arrived at this juncture. If you would like to know more read on. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Financial Services, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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It’s Coco-nuts!
Roger Montgomery
February 16, 2015
Chasing yield, wherever it can be found, is a pastime for many baby boomers whose income returns from traditional securities and bank deposits are being decimated. The fad global and Basel III banking capital requirements are potentially legitimising some securities, that under normal interest rate settings, might not have seen the light of day. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Financial Services, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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How low can you go? Deflation and negative bond rates
Roger Montgomery
February 10, 2015
With everyone getting very hot under the collar or excited (depending on whether you are a borrower or a lender) about the prospect of Australia’s cash rate falling below two per cent, we thought it might be interesting to point to something even more interesting that transpired last week in Europe. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
