Consumer discretionary
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How did retailers go over Christmas?
Russell Muldoon
January 16, 2015
Since we last published this chart back in November, our view on listed retailing stocks remains largely unchanged and based on anecdotal feedback to date, the wealth effect from rising share markets and property prices is still not translating into spending. We have seen three downgrades (Kathmandu, Flight Centre & Oroton) and based on our research, it’s entirely possible these will not be isolated cases. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.
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What captured your interest in Q2 2014?
Roger Montgomery
January 7, 2015
Over the next few days, we will take a look back at 2014 and highlight the most popular articles based on your views and comments.
The mention of house prices falling and negative gearing was a popular post.
In May, we talked Coca-Cola Amatil share price having declined by 40 per cent, and the duopoly that makes up Australia’s grocery retail landscape has putting the company on a strict diet of shrinking volumes, values and loss of market share to Schweppes and more particularly, the category known as “Private Label” soft drinks.
The forecast Australian population growth from 23 million to 40 million by 2060 bodes well for self-storage providers – and small-cap National Storage is no exception. We take a closer look at how the third-largest self-storage provider is positioned. Note, you will need to log in as a subscriber to see this paper.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Property, Value.able.
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Key issues for 2015
Roger Montgomery
January 5, 2015
In December I wrote an article for the ASX Investor Update, I thought I would share my thoughts with you as a welcome back to the year ahead.
What you should be watching out for in 2015 and what to expect with property prices, index funds and shares. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Energy / Resources, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Corporates behaving badly?
Roger Montgomery
December 22, 2014
Court finds Coles engaged in unconscionable conduct and orders Coles pay $10 million penalties.
The Federal Court has today, by consent, made declarations in two proceedings instituted by the ACCC that Coles Supermarkets Australia Pty Ltd engaged in unconscionable conduct in 2011 in its dealings with certain suppliers.
The Court has also ordered Coles pay combined pecuniary penalties of $10 million and costs. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.
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Are you throwing the baby out with the bathwater?
Roger Montgomery
December 22, 2014
As we start to turn our minds to a well-earned break, we cannot help to ponder what the year ahead might unearth and whether we’ll find something useful and attractive that others have thrown out.
What we know today however, is that Materials and Energy stocks are under the pump from rising supply and falling demand. Some of them, along with those in the mining services game, will shutter operations or go broke – don’t forget there are over 700 mining services companies in Australia and 90 per cent of them are unlisted. Given that China is forecast by the US Conference Board to be growing at only 5.5 per cent in the next few years and by 3.5 per cent in the years to 2025, it is difficult to see any rapid turn around in the economics of materials exploration, mining and production. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Energy / Resources, Financial Services.
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It’s only just begun
Ben MacNevin
December 19, 2014
For those hoping that 2014 will see the end of the mining downturn, the fallout may have only just begun.
A bellwether of the Perth market has released profit guidance that paints a very grim picture of economic conditions in the west. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.
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Is Woolies headed for a downgrade?
Roger Montgomery
December 18, 2014
The Sydney Morning Herald today reported, what appears to be shocking behaviour, by Woolworths (ASX:WOW) and suggests the company is really feeling the pressure at the moment. If the allegations reported by Fairfax are correct, one must wonder how the methods are any different to the stand-over tactics employed by the gangsters of the 50’s and 60’s. It certainly doesn’t seem to be the behaviour of responsible corporate citizens, rewarded with millions in salaries and bonuses. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.
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Are you spending more or less this Christmas?
Roger Montgomery
December 12, 2014
As you know we cannot predict where share prices are going next week, next month or next quarter. Valuing a business is simply not the same as predicting its price. What we do know however, is that over the long run, the price of a company’s shares will follow the economic performance of that business. ARB fell 40 per cent or more during the GFC, but its shares have increased almost four-fold over eleven or twelve years. It’s a similar story for CBA. Its shares also slumped during the GFC, but step back and the true picture of performance appears. Our estimate of CBA’s intrinsic value and the company’s share price have tripled over a decade. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.
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It’s not all doom & gloom in retail
Scott Shuttleworth
December 11, 2014
Upmarket furniture seller Nick Scali (ASX: NCK) had an excellent financial year in 2014 with its success seemingly continuing into FY15. I’ve made a few notes on their outlook, whilst reading through the Chairman & Managing Director’s 2014 AGM addresses, which you can read in full here. continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Value.able.
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Is it true: are we always better off with lower prices?
Roger Montgomery
December 6, 2014
Sadly, we live in a country where the overwhelming belief is that people are almost always better off with lower prices. It’s short-term ideology that fails to recognise the long-term damage suffered by Australian businesses when they simply cannot match the prices offered by better-resourced and more competitive foreign businesses. And it’s ideology again that suggests these businesses should be left to fail.
The result of course is that local businesses do go broke or are bought out by foreign businesses. And as we have seen with Ford and Holden, selling out to foreign enterprises does not secure jobs nor does it guarantee ongoing ‘investment’. We should think of this is we sell off our land, our farms and our infrastructure. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.