The latest credit data paints a gloomy picture for the housing market. Over the past year or so, we’ve seen new finance commitments trend down for owner occupiers and investors, and a very significant increase in loan rejections. Credit could get even tighter once the Royal Commission into financial services hands down its recommendations. Continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.

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Many economists believe that consumer spending is the most important short-run determinant of economic performance. Which is a worry. Because it looks like discretionary spending is heading south.

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by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary.

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You’ve probably noticed that shopping centres are changing. Gone are some of the old, familiar stores, and among the mix are likely to be a few empty and boarded-up shopfronts. This situation is playing out across the country, and is reflected in the latest data, which shows the retail failure rate at alarmingly high levels. Continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary.

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While Australia’s declining housing market is good news for first-time home buyers, it’s bad news for the economy. One big concern is what’s called the reverse wealth effect. Another is the adverse impact that a falling market could have on state budgets which could in turn have an impact on infrastructure spending. Continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Property.

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Most people are familiar with the concept of inflation. As a quick recap, it is the process whereby prices tend to increase over time. A positive, but low, level of inflation is generally seen as positive for a number of reasons and central banks tend to manage their interest rates to try to hit an inflation target of generally around 2%. Continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Economics.

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Australian Bureau of Statistics released their September labour force statistics on Thursday last week. As you might have seen in the newspaper, the headline number was positive showing a sharp drop in the unemployment rate which fell by 0.3% points from August to 5.0 per cent which is the lowest since before the mining industry downturn in 2012. Continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.

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Data that forms an investment thesis is not always presented in the most coherent and easy to digest manner. It is indeed often the case that once data has been distilled into a form that is easy to draw conclusions from, it is often too late to act on as the trend has already become obvious. It is therefore often even more interesting to look at more circumstantial data that can give an early indication of the future direction of the more substantiated data. Continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight Andreas takes a look at Challenger, a core holding in our funds. With currently around 90% market share in the annuity market place in Australia we believe there is even more opportunity for Challenger’s growth.

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by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Stocks We Like, Video Insights.

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The very well-respected bank team at UBS published a very interesting piece of research today that we believe is well worth taking a look at. The team performs an annual survey of Australians who have taken out a mortgage during the previous 12 months. The survey covers 1008 individuals and is spread both geographically and in loan size, so the findings are statistically significant for the overall population. They have published quite a few different reports looking at the data from different angles, but today’s version is very interesting for the insights it gives into the financial literacy of Australians. Continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services, Property.

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While the Federal government continues to crow about the strength of the Australian economy, a worrying trend is occurring that is getting less attention: Australian households are saving less. Sooner or later, this trend will reverse. And when it does, consumer-oriented businesses will feel the heat. Continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary, Market commentary.

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