Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
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In this appearance on Your Money Your Call, Roger Montgomery reveals his Value.able intrinsic valuations for popular retailer JB Hi-Fi (JBH), hearing device manufacturer Cochlear (COH), mortgage broking company Mortgage Choice (MOC), fund manager Platinum Asset Management (PTM) and construction company Leighton Holdings Limited (LEI). Which of these businesses are trading at a discount to Roger’s Value.able intrinsic valuation? And which businesses score Roger’s coveted A1 Montgomery Quality Rating (MQR)? Watch the interview.
Of the 2000-odd businesses listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, Roger Montgomery tells Your Money Your Call viewers that only 600 make a profit, and only a handful score his coveted A1 Montgomery Quality Rating. Matrix Engineering (MCE) is one of Roger’s A1s. What MQR does Roger award to drug delivery business OBJ Limited, solar panel manufacturer Dyesol (DYE), uranium producer Energy Resources (ERA) and material processer Lynas Corporation Limited (LYC)? Watch the first part of Roger’s appearance to find out. Watch the interview.
The ASX established the Schools Sharemarket Game to teach high school students about investing and give them the opportunity to put their learning into practice.
Ron feels high school is too late to start his newborn son’s investment journey so has taken Warren Buffett’s advice…
I remember reading that Warren Buffett started investing around the age of 11 and he always mentioned that he wished he started 11 years earlier! Therefore I thought my 4 month old son, Lior, shouldn’t waste any time and start reading Value.able!
All the best,
Ron
And from Graduates already in the field…
Matt: Value.able and a glass of Chateau St Jean 2006 Cinq Cepages
John: The best book in the world
Thank you Jesse, Michael, Young Les, Justin, Michael V, Matthew, Rad, Ron, Matt and John for sharing your Value.able adventures with our community.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 28 October 2010.
UPDATE: posted 3 November.
Hi Roger,
This is Max my nephew, he is not quite ready for your book but he is heading in the right direction.
Gavin
A number of Value.able Graduates have asked me to share my view on TFS Corporation Ltd (ASX:TFC), the owner and manager of Indian sandalwood plantations in the east Kimberley region of Western Australia (an area I have visited and can’t wait to get back to).
The first comment is from SI:
“I just had a look at TFS… wow is all I can say. I agree this is a monopoly in the making. They have control over customers with many signing up to a % of production years in advance and $$ to be set at point of sale. There appears to be medical interest developing, significant cosmetic and industry demand and cultural/religious needs not wants. So demand is very strong and lacking substitutes. On the supply side I see world supply is dwindling and TFS is really the only viable source – also natural/sustainable and green! There also appears to be huge barriers to entry for any competition and TFS is 15 years ahead of any rivals! So using Porters 5 forces: they have power over customers, power of suppliers, no realistic substitute, huge barriers to entry and a monopoly position… WOW they are also vertically integrated soil to end product! Also trading on a PE of approx 5, making money now growing trees, paying a dividend and yet to benefit from revenue from harvest….which appears to offer huge revenue flows starting in 2 years.”
And from James:
“… Their ROE is good, payout low and currently well under value.”
Putting aside the more than slight promotional tone of SI’s comments – thanks SI, it appears on first blush that TFS has several things going for it: bright prospects, possible competitive advantages, high levels of profitability and a valuation greater than the current price. Thanks SI for openly sharing your thoughts on the business.
To add my two cents worth, it would be useful to revisit a very important chapter of Value.able: Cashflow and Goodwill. I fear its importance may have been overlooked by readers. There are been precious few questions about, or discussion, of cashflow at my blog, even though it occupies a very large part of my time analysing companies. For TFS, in the current stage of its lifecycle, this chapter has many considerations for investors to take on board before jumping onto the Sandalwood bandwagon.
Let me start on page 147, third paragraph, bold font: “The cashflow of a company that you invest in must be positive rather than negative”. The reason I have emphasised this statement is because I want to make something very clear – reported accounting profits often bears little resemblance to the cash profits or cashflow of a company.
In business you can only spend cash. Indeed, cash is ‘king’. Try going to the local grocer, showing him an empty wallet and offering instead some accounting surplus to pay for the weeks fruit and veg. You will get just as far in business without real cash – unless the business has access to external funding to plug the gap. Please make sure you re-visit Chapter 9 of Value.able.
With re-reading from page 145 in mind, focus your attention to the profits and operating cash flows reported by TFS in 2009 and 2010.
TFS has not generated a single dollar of cumulative positive cash flow in the past two years. Despite reporting $72m in profits, TFS actually experienced a cash outflow of -$8.9m. In 2010, a record $37.11m in profits is matched by negative operating cash flows of -$25.09m. Remember page 147, third paragraph, bold font?
It could however be that the cash flow disparity is merely a timing issue. No problem; a longitudinal study will help. Turning our attention to the past 10 years, is the situation any better?
Total reported profits over this period equate to $141.36m, but this is money TFS cannot spend. The total of operating cash flows produced over the same period, money the business can spend, is significantly lower at $22.91m.
What if I now told you that over the same 10 years, the business had spent $77.43m on investments including property, plant and equipment, and paid $29.94m in dividends!
And all this from Cash Flow of only $22.91m? This is generally only achievable if a business has very accommodating shareholders and financiers – who, to date, have tipped in $61.14m in equity and $43.19m in debt to plug the hole.
Does this business meet Chapter 9’s description of a Value.able business?
Extraordinary businesses don’t have to wait for cash flow. Their already-entrenched competitive position ensures that cash flows readily into management’s hands to be re-deployed/re-invested (with shareholders best interests at heart), or returned.
TFS and many other businesses listed on the ASX are able to utilise various accounting standards to depict the appearance of a profitable business when they are in actual fact heavily reliant on external financing to fund and grow operations.
I am not saying in any way, shape or form that TFS is a business that will head down the same path as many in the sector before it – remember Great Southern Plantations and Timbercorp? TFS may soon produce fruit (so to speak). And if SI and management are right, the business offers “huge revenue flows starting in 2 years”, is a “monopoly in the making” and 2011 will see a significant increase in positive operating cash flow as settlement of institutional sales occurs throughout the year. If this occurs, the business may achieve an investment grade Montgomery Quality Rating (MQR).
I prefer to see runs on the scoreboard – a demonstrated track record – and profits being backed up by uninhibited cash streaming through the door before I open my wallet. Yes, one will miss opportunities adopting this approach but those fish you do catch are generally very good eating.
So until such time as TFS’s cash starts to flow, there are other cash-producing listed A1 businesses to choose from.
This brings up an important point to consider; make sure reported profits are backed up by cash flowing into the business. If it isn’t, be very conservative in your assumptions. Better still, move on to valuing businesses that are extraordinary, those with an MQR of A1, A2 and B1. TFS is a B3.
I will watch this one from the sidelines for now, even if I miss out on returns in the meantime.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 28 October 2010.
Retailers with competitive advantage make big profits. Here are my top picks. Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
The second-biggest share market float in Australia’s history, coal rail freight business QR National, is getting mixed reviews from analyst. Independent analyst Roger Montgomery says it is not a high-quality company. Read article.
Term deposits offer a more secure investment option than the current $6 billion share market float by coal rail freight business QR National, Roger Montgomery has said. Read article.
I am writing this post so that we have a record in the event Private Equity some day offers to offload the business to me. It’s one for those of you who have ever been to the local tip and paid for the privilege.
It has been reported this week that Visy, the German-based waste group Remondis, Sydney-based Sita Environmental Solutions, private equity groups Ironbridge and Archer as well as listed disappointment Transpacific are all eyeing off garbage collector and tip owner WSN Environmental Solutions.
If you happen to live on Sydney’s north shore and ever had the delightful job of taking a trailer load of rubbish to the tip, you may be familiar with their North Ryde facility at Wicks Road. Drive onto the weigh bridge and over your credit card, go and dump your rubbish and unwanted items, get reweighed and both your car and your credit card are lighter. Ask the ladies at the entry which is the busiest day and they will gladly report; “every day, its always busy here”.
There are huge competitive advantages inherent in approved waste dump sites in high density areas. Environmental regulations ensure the approval of another site being built by a competitor next door is virtually impossible. WSN has 10 sites around Sydney and another at Moruya, about 250kms south of Sydney.
WSN collects kerbside waste, recylables and ‘clean-up day’ waste (225,000 households in 2009), and operates seven transfer stations that streamlines transporting and resource recovery. The company also operates an Alternative Waste Technology facilities as an alternative to landfill and its Eastern Creek facility processes 10% of Sydney’s household waste. The company operates materials recycling facilities (MRFs) at Chullora, Macarthur Resource Recovery Park (Narellan) and Moruya, sorting and recovering resources from the council kerbside collections of 450,000 households.
Aluminium, steel, plastic, paper and cardboard are sent (sold) to manufacturers to be processed into new products. Glass is processed at WSN’s new glass recycling plant at Chullora and marketed (sold) as an additive in bricks, tiles and water filtration materials.
At Lucas Heights, Eastern Creek, Ryde and Chullora Waste and Recycling Centres and Macarthur Resource Recovery park, WSN processes garden organics from 613,300 kerbside collections, as well as from drop-offs by householders (including me occasionally) and small businesses. These materials are used either as biofuel (sold) to produce green energy, or processed into compost and mulch products (sold) for agricultural and horticultural use.
The company also benefits from synergies with its subsidiary, Camden Soil Mix Pty Ltd, a leading composting and blending business in the Macarthur region that currently processes 10 per cent of garden organics in the Sydney basin market. Trading as Camden Soil Mix, the business continues to produce high quality compost from the kerbside garden organics that it receives from councils and contractors.
Think about that for a minute; Councils, individuals and businesses pay the company to take their rubbish away and the company is then paid to sell the processed output. It is paid by its customers and its suppliers. Only online lists and the big supermarkets can claim such wonderful economics.
Importantly, with landfill on the nose (pun intended), revenue from landfill now represents less than half of the company’s total. Back in 2003 it was 85%. Perhaps the biggest risks for the company under private ownership are regulations around environmental impact/footprint and the impact of transport and waste levy costs.
Revenues ‘excluding levy’ have increased substantially each year, despite the fact waste tonnes received was lower in 2009 than in 2005 and are generally stable. But for 2009, at least, that’s where the good news ended.
The business saw cash flow from operations drop by more than 50% from $42 million to $20 million and my ‘business cash flow’ calculation records a loss of $30 million. On a net basis however $44.5 million was spent on new property plant and equipment, but depreciation of roughly $20 million per year probably understates the actual maintenance capital expenditure. So call it a loss of $5 – 10 million. This was however a year (2009) in which expenses – particularly interest thanks to a near doubling of borrowings – significantly exceeded the previous year.
Like QR National, one expects private ownership would produce better results but the listed Transpacific Industries (ASX: TPI) achieves a C4 Montgomery Quality Rating (MQR) and is forecast to generate a return on equity of between 4-6% over the next three years (although TPI did raise $1 billion in 2007 and prior to that year generates much higher ROEs).
According to the media, WSN earned EBITDA of $30 million in 2010. Assuming debt hasn’t changed and is at $62 million (interest $5 million), Assets haven’t changed (depreciation & amortisation $22 million) and tax of 30%, the NPAT for 2010 was about $2 million, or a return on equity of about 1 per cent.
In theory there are some great assets with competitive advantages here (with the risk of legislative change always looming of course). I personally think it could be lucrative to own the Ryde transfer station with perhaps a green waste processing facility thrown in, but it seems the total is worth less than the parts. Perhaps that’s what Private Equity has noticed too.
Oh, and one other thing…watch out for the defined benefits plan, which according to the actuaries (read Buffett’s view about the way the fair values are arrived at) has a shortfall of $3.8 million – thankfully all closed to new members!
Published by Roger Montgomery, 25 October 2010.
UPDATE
A couple of weeks ago, Value.able Graduate Chris shared with me a story about his Grandad, a ‘scrapper’ in Adelaide.
There are some people in this world – affectionately known as “scrappers”, who do indeed take what is someone else’s trash and turn it into treasure. My Grandad was a ‘scrapper’ all his life because he used to recycle tins, lead, batteries, old cars – whatever he had – but he didn’t need to. He had his Army pension and his work pension, and him and Grandma lived quite comfortably, plus we also took care of them. I think that he just loved doing it – the game ! :) He loved the fact you could get something for nothing ! :)
Opal miners in Coober Pedy have been doing this kind of thing for ages – some of them are very, very rich and have a beautiful house down here in Adelaide, but have a rickety old shack up there, built out of scrap sheets and with DIY plumbing and wiring. I think that really, they like it that way – and you have to watch yourself when you set foot in their ‘house’ – never be critical of it or their hospitality, because you never know just who you might be talking to ! (and yes – I DO know some of these people as well, and the opal that they find is beautiful).
When you were in Adelaide, you’ll probably have noticed the “scrappers” riding bikes around or pushing trolleys. They’re raiding the bins for the 10c CDL refund – and let me tell you, I know a couple of them and they’re very savvy ! One of them has got a beautiful, MINT CONDITION 1986 Mercedes – in white. It is gorgeous. To most people, these guys look like they have nothing. Some don’t, but some are very, very wealthy from the sheer hard work and long hours of scrounging cans, iced coffee cartons and bottles to trade in for 10c a piece.
That’s why SA is such a great place – the home of the 10c refund. Yes – I do it too, but mainly for kicks and with whatever’s left over from daily life and the nightly one/two beers with dinner. I’m certainly not a “full time scrapper” like these people, but I put the money away and invest it on top of whatever I get from my normal job.
I love Gordon Elwood’s, Pokey Bills’ and Curt Degerman’s stories !
Chris
The prices investors are prepared to pay for media assets in Australia baffles Roger Montgomery. In this interview with Peter Switzer Roger shares his concerns about Ten’s lack of ownership of non-TV assets and its poor economic performance over the past decade. Roger also reveals his Montgomery Quality Rating for Ten – a C5 (Roger’s very worst MQR) and forecast Value.able intrinsic value for the next few years. Did James Packer acquire his stake in Ten Network for a bargain? Watch the interview.
Ten Network’s shares gained following James Packer’s raid on the company’s share register. The media company revealed in its full year results a return to profitability with a $150 million net profit. Independent investment expert Roger Montgomery shared his insights with Peter Switzer. Read article.
