I recently read an interesting post on Substack about the state of the market. However, there was one paragraph whose significance might have been missed, even by those who subscribe to the author’s musings.  

Here’s the paragraph in question, followed by what I hope will prove a useful explanation.

The paragraph was titled “No Equity Risk Premium.”

“Meanwhile the macro-middle scenario that has prevailed in 2025 has helped stocks push higher, and with still elevated bond yields that has squeezed the forward-looking “prospective equity risk premium” deeper into the negatives. That may not matter this week, this month, or even this quarter, but it does tell us the forward looking risk vs return set points to an entirely different regime than what we’ve become accustomed to.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.

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With trust in central financial institutions being undermined, and with the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s unassailable reserve currency being called into question, it comes as no surprise that gold is the asset cementing its place in the spotlight.

As Figure 1., reveals the exponential ascent of gold’s price. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear + Greed yesterday to discuss Myer’s disappointing announcement of a 30 per cent decline in profit, which was followed by a 25 per cent drop in its share price.

So, what went wrong?

As a traditional bricks-and-mortar department store, Myer has been grappling with significant challenges. Its move into the highly competitive online retail space has brought debt and complex integration issues, while also placing it in direct competition with pure-play online retailers. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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A falling U.S. dollar, China and Russia stacking gold and angling to take Taiwan, surging U.S. debt and a President dismantling the independence of America’s central bank. It’s no wonder bond yields are high.

Fiscal recklessness is stirring in the bond markets, and long-dated government debt appears to be under siege once again. Yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries were at 4.97 per cent at the start of September – now at 4.66 per cent – and near their highest level since 2007, Britain’s 30-year gilts spiked to a 27-year high of 5.75 per cent at the start of September, while Japan’s 20-year notes flirted with levels unseen since 1999. French and Australian sovereign bonds yields are soaring too. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In 2025, so far, the seven most influential U.S. tech giants – The Magnificent Seven, or Mag 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Nvidia) – have continued to assert their dominance and reinforce their role in determining the S&P 500’s trajectory. Despite what appears to be artificial intelligence (AI) hype, or perhaps because of it, the seven giants have collectively outpaced the broader S&P 500’s 12.47 per cent year-to-date (YTD) rise, delivering a gain of 15.9 per cent through Monday’s close. At the same time, however, their market-capitalisation share has dropped slightly from a peak of 32.2 per cent in mid-August to 31.3 per cent of the S&P 500’s total value. That indicates some stocks outside of the Mag 7 have been outperforming them. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Polen Capital, Stocks We Like, Technology & Telecommunications.

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If you’re tracking equities, it’s vital to keep an eye on the bond markets, as they’re signalling genuine unease. That nervousness is now rippling through global economies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how scandals at Super Retail Group, Qantas, and Star Entertainment reveal a troubling pattern: CEOs behaving badly and boards failing to act. From cover-ups to ignored red flags, weak oversight has led to billions in fines, lost trust, and damaged valuations. I stressed that it’s often the cover-up that sinks a CEO – and that boards must demand transparency, independence, and stronger governance to protect investors.

Listen to the full interview from 1:46:00 here: Statewide Drive – when boards fail, investors will pay the price

by David Buckland Posted in Radio.

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There are four major criticisms for holding cash as an investment. But what if there was a simple alternative that went some way to invalidating those criticisms? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.

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