Retail stocks were on the nose for some time amid fears of recession, the impact of rising interest rates, the cost-of-living crisis and inflation’s impact on the cost of doing business. 

The recent HY24 reporting season, however, revealed much of the fear was misplaced. Aggregate revenue growth tended to beat estimates despite moderating slightly. Meanwhile, even though earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margins compressed as the cost of doing business grew, this was somewhat offset by gross profit growth. Companies were able to pass on higher prices and more, and in the face of those price increases, consumers were surprisingly resilient.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Economics.

New spending figures published by the Association of Superannuation Fund of Australia (ASFA) define what it means to be comfortable in retirement. And while their numbers are well above the current age pension payments, I am not sure even those elevated numbers realistically measure up to what many, if not most, people would describe as comfortable.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick.

• 6 Comments
• save this article
• 6
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick.

With all the talk about a bubble in equities at the moment (I think we are a long way from the euphoria that typically defines bubbles), I thought it would be prudent to take a look at the recent forecasting track record of some of the biggest names in funds management and investment banking.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• 3 Comments
• save this article
• 3
• POSTED IN Market commentary.

Predicting private credit will become a much more important part of investors’ portfolios and an asset class in its own right has been easy. Who wouldn’t want higher yields with low volatility? And as the oldest boomers’ approach 80 years of age, many are turning their backs on the stock market’s volatility, preferring regular income and total returns that, in some cases, have beaten the stock market.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Polen Capital.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• 2
• POSTED IN Global markets, Polen Capital.

According to CoreLogic, the median dwelling price for Australia is $760,000; the median dwelling price in the eight capital cities (6 States and 2 Territories) is $836,000, ranging from Sydney ($1.122 million) to Darwin ($522,000), whilst the median dwelling price for Australia’s regional towns is $605,000.  Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Property.

• 1 Comments
• save this article
• 1
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Property.

In this week’s video insight, Gary Rollo and I engage in a discussion about the remarkable performance of the Montgomery Small Companies Fund and its implications for investors. With a backdrop of significant outperformance by the fund against its benchmarks, portfolio manager, Gary Rollo, unpacks the recent success stories of specific companies and the broader economic trends influencing small cap stocks. Spotlighting companies such as Life360 (ASX:360), Megaport (ASX:MP1), Superloop (ASX:SLC), and Audinate (ASX:AD8), we explore the underlying factors driving an average uptick of 45 per cent in just the initial weeks of the year.  Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Video Insights.

• watch video
• save this article
• POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Video Insights.

In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I discussed the current state of the stock market and addressed the question of whether it is in a bubble. I noted that the typical euphoria seen in market bubbles is absent and highlighted that both the U.S. and Australian market gains, along with current initial public offering (IPO) trends, do not align with typical bubble indicators. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN TV Appearances.

I have often thought it is better to have qualifications in psychology rather than accounting, finance, or economics when it comes to being a successful, patient investor.  

Four years ago, on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were smashed in a short time, with many indexes declining 30 to 40 per cent over February/ March 2020. In hindsight, opportunities became plentiful, however the ensuing “pandemic-related enthusiasm” was often misplaced. Hence, it is crucial to discern between a fad and something more permanent.   Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary.