The monthly household spending indicator released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) last week, is an additional data point crucial to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) ongoing monitoring and decision making. Household spending was 3.6 per cent higher than this time last year. This follows a slight dip we saw in December 2023. The ABS reported a 1.2 per cent increase in December 2023 and 2.9 per cent increase in January 2024.   Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Economics.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the equity market’s outlook, stressing the balance between disinflation and positive growth against the backdrop of potential inflation and economic slowdowns. Market dips, while concerning, are seen as opportunities, especially in smaller companies, provided inflation or recession risks don’t materialize. I highlight the significant role of the U.S. Federal Reserve and central banks in shaping expectations through interest rate policies. Recent shifts in market sentiment, driven by economic data and Fed caution, illustrate the challenge of forecasting amidst these uncertainties. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Video Insights.

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The S&P500 is up 10 per cent in the first quarter of calendar 2024. Another useless fact is that the S&P 500’s rally set 22 new records in 2024 alone, and its market value has grown by over U.S.$9 trillion since late October. 

It’s worth reflecting on our prediction from last year that innovative growth stocks would outperform mega-cap tech stocks in 2024 as investors broadened their risk appetite to include small caps.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics.

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In this week’s episode of Ausbiz, I share insights into Tesla’s (NASDAQ;TSLA) current challenges, noting the significant gap between vehicle production and sales despite expectations from innovations in AI and battery storage. This discrepancy raises questions about Tesla’s valuation and its similarities to traditional car manufacturers. I also discuss Tesla’s strategy to enhance software revenue and self-driving capabilities, questioning their effectiveness against the backdrop of sales challenges and global hesitancy towards autonomous vehicles. I also delve into the recent surge in cocoa prices due to supply disruptions and high demand around Easter, suggesting an investment strategy that leverages the post-Easter discounted chocolate eggs for potential profit by transforming them into more marketable chocolate products. Watch the full interview here: Ausbiz – Chocolate up, Tesla down 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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Back in October 2020, in the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a blog titled “why cruise lines could be worth buying again,” we proffered an investment thesis that the sharp drops in the share prices of the major listed cruise line companies did not reflect the then fast-advancing technology that would facilitate a reopening of global activity even in the absence of a vaccine, and that pent-up demand (82 per cent of passengers are repeat cruisers) for travel would see a surge in cruising activity exceeding the expectations then implied in share prices.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) last week, released the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for February. The consumer price index is a measure of inflation published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The monthly CPI read came in at 3.4 per cent in the 12 months to February 2024. The rate has now remained unchanged for three consecutive months. When excluding the volatile items, which included fuel, fruit and vegetables, and holiday travel, the CPI level was 3.9 per cent. This is a downward revision from the 4.1 per cent reported in January.  Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick.

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In last week’s ABC Nightlife interview, I joined Philip Clark to discuss the current state of costs of retirement, the implications of rising interest rates, inflation and more. You can listen to the full interview here: ABC Nightlife – Finance with Roger Montgomery

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the divided state of Australia’s property market, highlighted by the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures. With new home lending showing an unexpected decline, the market seems to be at a crossroads between tightening credit conditions and rising investor interest. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property, Video Insights.

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