The outlook for Australia’s banks in 2017 is now tougher given the rerating of the stocks the last quarter of 2016. The expectations built into share prices have clearly lifted in 2017.  The big change we expect is a slowing of loan book growth. If interest rates have bottomed, affordability of debt will suffer. Market expectations imply a continuation of the growth rates we’ve seen over the past decade or two, but if the cost of debt stops falling this could act as a drag on loan book growth and the broader economy. Funding costs continue to rise, pressuring net interest margins. Slowing loan book growth is also likely to increase competitive pressure as banks look to gain market share as an offset.

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by Stuart Jackson Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services.

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Back in 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto conceptualized the first blockchain. The following year, he used it as a core component of the digital currency, bitcoin. Since then, blockchain has become something of a buzz word. So what is it, and why does it matter?
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by Lisa Fedorenko Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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by Roger Montgomery's Team Posted in Old Content.

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The 2016 financial year saw some significant changes in investment in Australia. There were major movements in relation to global shares, fixed interest, global property and infrastructure, and alternatives. We can learn a lot by looking at where the money flowed. Continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Market commentary.

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Intuitively investors know the principles of buying low and selling high. Each year Dalbar, a US based research firm, conducts their Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behaviour. The study looks at how investor decisions to switch in and out of mutual funds impacts the returns that they achieve. Dalbar’s research confirms that most investors fail to execute on this basic premise – consistently underperforming the funds they invest.

In this video for LiveWire I share my views on irrational selling and the opportunities this creates. 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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by Roger Montgomery's Team Posted in Old Content.

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Jamie Williamson wrote an article in the Financial Standard about Montgomery’s recent Whitepaper that warns investors in property and stocks of the looming threat of inferior returns. Read here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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After no gain, excluding dividends, over the 30 months from December 2013 to June 2016, the Australian All Ordinaries Index recorded a 7.7 per cent bounce in the December 2016 half-year.  This was assisted by the record low cash rate (1.5 per cent), the 81 per cent rally over the year in the iron-ore price to US$78.87/ tonne and the 52 per cent rally over the year in the oil price to US$56.82/bbl.  Copper, a strong indicator for Global Industrial Production, was up 17 per cent to US$2.51/lb. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Montgomery News and Updates.

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