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Bored apes and bananas part. 1
Roger Montgomery
December 4, 2024
John Templeton famously observed; bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.
With several commentators now labelling markets euphoric, the call for a correction is becoming louder. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Ausbiz – Risks, opportunities, and the outlook for equities in 2025
Roger Montgomery
November 29, 2024
Yesterday, I joined Ausbiz to share my thoughts on the outlook for Australian equities heading into 2025. We discussed how the current environment of economic growth and disinflation supports markets, but also the risks posed by rising valuations and global debt levels, which now sit at $312 trillion. With significant refinancing due in the next couple of years, tight liquidity could create challenges. I also talked about the opportunities in high-quality small-cap stocks, both locally and globally, and why innovative companies with pricing power remain a bright spot in the market.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Small Caps, TV Appearances.
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November ABC Nightlife – Finance
Roger Montgomery
November 28, 2024
Earlier this week, I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the latest in finance. We explored the rise of Bitcoin and crypto ETFs, including their increased accessibility and the potential implications of President-elect Donald Trump’s vision for the U.S. as a leading repository for Bitcoin. I also highlighted the drawbacks of relying on charting and technical analysis compared to dollar cost averaging. We also addressed the challenges of navigating financial advice in the era of “finfluencers,” and where to find reputable information. Lastly, I shared insights into Warren Buffett’s recent decisions and what these moves reveal about Berkshire Hathaway’s strategy, while answering some of your questions along the way.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.
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Victoria confronts its failed experiment
Roger Montgomery
November 27, 2024
Socialism is a political and economic theory of social organisation that advocates for the means of production, distribution, and exchange to be owned or regulated by the community. Socialists believe the government is the community apparatus that should control all aspects of the economy. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.
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New ratios are a sign of something…
Roger Montgomery
November 26, 2024
As the market rises, a couple of things often occur. First, a conga line of naysayers and cassandras emerge. The earliest doom-and-gloomers point to rational reasons why the market should not be rising and why it should be going down as they earlier but incorrectly predicted. The second bunch point to how much the market has already risen and then lean on a bunch of ratios to show that the market has fallen the last time (insert ratio here) was this high. As the market continues to climb, the next bunch of people point to a ‘bubble’ and warn of an impending crash. Eventually, equities markets correct – you can count on it – but the timing is far less reliable and predictable.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Clear and present danger to sharemarkets posed by Republican presidencies
Roger Montgomery
November 25, 2024
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, In the Press.
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An investing technique for the finfluencers
Roger Montgomery
November 22, 2024
Twenty-something: “Dad, I’m going to trade currencies”
Father: “What do you know about it?”
Twenty-something: “There’s a guy on Youtube, and he trades currencies, bitcoin, and the S&P500, using charts and technical analysis, and makes heaps. And he drives a Lamborghini.” Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.
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Buffett screams sell! Not so fast.
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2024
“Buffett screams sell!” “Buffett sounds alarm!” They were the headlines that greeted me recently, about Oracle of Omaha, when I opened my news app to read up on what others thought about the rally in markets since 2022 – a rally that anyone following would know we frequently and repeatedly explained would transpire, and a rally that has accelerated following the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. President. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics.
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Immediately after Donald Trump’s election as the next president of the United States, market analysts began exploring historical correlations to assess potential implications for investors.