The frequency of calls that the market is in a euphoric bubble is increasing. It’s worth exploring some of the evidence used to reach that conclusion before deciding whether now is the time to adopt a more cautious stance and to ready oneself for the benefits lower prices deliver.   Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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After the disaster for equity markets in 2022, calendar 2023 saw investors return to rewarding robust fundamentals, but only for a very narrow band of companies. Perhaps it was the fear of further rate rises or the fear of recession, but investors concentrated their bets on only the most liquid securities, those of mega cap companies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In a constantly evolving investment landscape, private credit stands out as an important opportunity, especially for those seeking alternatives to traditional income solutions and volatile public markets. Private credit is an option for investing that, for example, can generate potentially superior income streams to those from owning bank shares, but without the risk to capital that comes with the stock market.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group.

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In this week’s video insight, I delve into the promising realm of small cap companies for 2024, a sector where I’ve maintained a bullish stance since November 2022. The Small Ordinaries Index and the S&P600 Small Cap Index have shown noteworthy gains, underscoring the potential that these companies hold in a recovering economy. As global economic indicators signal a gradual improvement and the potential for a disinflationary boom, the stage is set for innovative small caps to thrive, especially with interest rates poised for a cut.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Small Caps, Video Insights.

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Wow. Talk about playing the man and not the ball! Perhaps some of the most vitriolic feedback I have encountered has come from those who have chosen to write to me explaining how wrong I am about Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) possibly being just another car company. 

They’re as staunchly convinced about the company’s prospects as they are about its products.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.

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The monthly household spending indicator released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) last week, is an additional data point crucial to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) ongoing monitoring and decision making. Household spending was 3.6 per cent higher than this time last year. This follows a slight dip we saw in December 2023. The ABS reported a 1.2 per cent increase in December 2023 and 2.9 per cent increase in January 2024.   Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Economics.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the equity market’s outlook, stressing the balance between disinflation and positive growth against the backdrop of potential inflation and economic slowdowns. Market dips, while concerning, are seen as opportunities, especially in smaller companies, provided inflation or recession risks don’t materialize. I highlight the significant role of the U.S. Federal Reserve and central banks in shaping expectations through interest rate policies. Recent shifts in market sentiment, driven by economic data and Fed caution, illustrate the challenge of forecasting amidst these uncertainties. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Video Insights.

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The S&P500 is up 10 per cent in the first quarter of calendar 2024. Another useless fact is that the S&P 500’s rally set 22 new records in 2024 alone, and its market value has grown by over U.S.$9 trillion since late October. 

It’s worth reflecting on our prediction from last year that innovative growth stocks would outperform mega-cap tech stocks in 2024 as investors broadened their risk appetite to include small caps.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics.

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