In a fascinating Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, published this week, the U.S. state of Wyoming reportedly bought 2,312 ounces of gold in December after passing a law requiring the state’s investment portfolio to add precious metals as a hedge against economic turmoil.

According to the WSJ, “Among [Wyoming’s] worries are rising federal debt, inflation and a weak U.S. dollar – but also more extreme calamities, according to Bob Ide, a Republican state senator and lead sponsor of the ‘Wyoming Gold Act.”

For me, however, it was Ide’s comment about a U.S. default that piqued my interest, and should yours. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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While many of us here in Australia are left aghast after spending any time doom-scrolling through the latest chaotic headlines from the Republican Administration in the United States, a far more immediate and flagrant brand of political decay is festering closer to home, in the state of Victoria.

It is a curious phenomenon of modern life that we are often more outraged by a tweet from Washington than by the systematic erosion of integrity in our own backyard, yet after twelve years of Labor government, the Garden State has become a case study in self-interest and institutionalised corruption.

Last week, Victoria’s Liberals and Nationals introduced a bill to give Victoria’s anti-corruption watchdog, Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC), the powers it has been asking for since 2017 – the power to follow the money and investigate $15 billion of corruption in the Big Build. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Philip Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the shift toward a more volatile market environment in 2026. With inflation likely rising again, growth slowing and oil prices climbing, the key conditions that supported recent equity gains are fading. We also explored potential war scenarios involving Iran and how they could impact markets, inflation and interest rates.

Given this backdrop, I highlighted the need to rethink portfolio construction, with private credit emerging as a potential alternative offering attractive income with lower volatility. We also touched on rising fuel costs, price pressures on consumers, and broader structural challenges in Australia’s economy. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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Dear Minister,

I am writing to urge a critical re-evaluation of the Australian Government’s 82 per cent renewable target for 2030 (part of your Powering Australia plan) and its long-term trajectory toward a near-100 per cent intermittent grid. While the ambition for a low-carbon future is shared, the 2026 global energy landscape provides a stark warning: the “free fuel” nature of wind and solar does not translate to lower consumer bills. In fact, as penetration increases, system-wide costs are already accelerating. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources.

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The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U.S.-linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year. And arguably, as intended, it has distracted everyone from the Epstein files.

At the time of writing Brent and WTI crude were up $US15 to $US107 a barrel. The Nikkei plummeted 4.5 per cent, and U.S. futures have cratered by as much as two per cent. So, why has a single drone strike erased billions in equity value across the globe?

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 March 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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With the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil, the largest ever since its creation in the 1970s, to lower crude prices from the war with Iran, it might inspire some investors to believe the threat to markets has been assuaged. But at the same time, Iran has attacked approximately 20 commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz so far.

The Strait is now part of the Middle East war’s frontline as Iran seeks to inflict maximum economic pain on the world in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes on its territory. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The Trump administration’s decision to initiate a wide-scale military campaign against Iran, recently coined Operation Epic Fury, can be viewed through a number of lenses.  Some might say the strikes have been framed by Washington as a multifaceted necessity for global and domestic security. Others may simply say, the justifications for the strikes keep changing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The traditional 60/40 portfolio approach is proving less effective at balancing risk and return in today’s environment, particularly as the historical relationship between equities and bonds has shifted. Where bonds once tended to rise when equities fell, both asset classes have at times moved in the same direction during periods of persistent inflation and policy uncertainty, weakening diversification benefits. At the same time, elevated equity valuations, increased concentration in major indices and higher government debt levels have contributed to a more volatile and policy-sensitive market backdrop. As a result, some investors are reassessing how capital is allocated and how diversification is achieved. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Whitepapers.

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