Market commentary

In this week’s video insight, I’ll be discussing the pleasing performance of both the Montgomery Small Companies Fund and the Aura High Yield SME Fund (for wholesale investors) in the September 2023 quarter. During this time stock markets observed widespread negative returns, mainly due to a significant increase in U.S. ten-year treasury bond yields. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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In this interview with Ausbiz, I wanted to share a different perspective on the future of investments. I challenged the widespread concerns about the S&P 500 indicating a potentially bleak decade ahead. I also wanted to emphasize that individual investors should move beyond broad indices and instead focus on quality businesses. Watch the full interview here: Challenging the prediction of a grim decade for equities

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Some commentators, pointing to the price to earnings (P/E) ratio for major indices like the S&P500, argue the next decade will be terrible for equities. Are they right? There are always plenty of people happy to offer their opinion. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Australia, known for its stunning landscapes, unique wildlife, and thriving cities, is experiencing a population boom of historic proportions. As of March 31, 2023, our great southern land is home to 26,473,055 individuals. This remarkable figure represents an astonishing increase of 563,205 people in just one year, marking a growth rate of 2.17 per cent. If this pace continues for another quarter, Australia is poised to set a record for its highest annual population growth, and net overseas migration (NOM) is the driving force. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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There is a well-known Harvard Business School case study where the Japanese automakers tried to enter the U.S. market in the late-1960s and kept returning home with their tail between their legs as their early vehicles were not designed for big distances on the open American road. Fast forward 50 years and Toyota consistently has one of the largest market shares in the U.S., and not so long-ago Lexus was much preferred over other luxury brands including BMW and Mercedes. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Crossborder Capital recently charted the dynamic shifts in global investor positioning. Measuring “Risk Exposure”, the analysis seeks to describe the extent to which investors have adopted risk, with the task being to identify which markets are ‘overbought’ or ‘oversold’. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The recent removal of the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, seems to coincide with the outlook of an unsustainable budget deficit and the likelihood the U.S. Federal Debt to GDP ratio will soon exceed the record reached in 1946, immediately after the second World War. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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The economic outlook both in Australia and abroad remains complex, with the lags from material monetary policy tightening proving to be longer than expected. The U.S. economy is showing remarkable resilience, with the consumer benefiting from savings buffers, fixed rate mortgages and rising real wages. 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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I have a great deal of respect for the team that has been assembled at Barrenjoey, and I have every confidence they will add enormous value to investors through their insights and contribution to the ongoing conversation about the economy and markets. Barrenjoey recently penned a note revealing their outlook for economies and markets, and it’s safe to say, it isn’t the consensus view, which makes it particularly compelling reading. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Stocks We Like.

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Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has highlighted a significant concern echoed by analysts like Leith Van Onselen of Macro Business. According to the latest ABS data, Queensland’s population has grown by 124,200 residents in just the past year, culminating in March. This dramatic increase can be attributed to a combination of substantial overseas arrivals and a notable interstate migration trend. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Property.

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