Market commentary
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The US market is massively overpriced – but is that a problem?
Roger Montgomery
May 23, 2018
The US bull market is now 110 months old, and many stocks are looking expensive – despite reports of exceptional profit margins. Which is why we continue to hold a larger proportion of our portfolio in cash than many, if not most, of our peers. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Which businesses could lose out if migrant numbers are cut?
Andreas Lundberg
May 10, 2018
The national debate over immigration policy has been heating up for some time. Clogged roads, crowded trains and buses, and surging house prices are just some of the issues being blamed on our increased migrant intake. So, which businesses would be impacted if the government tightens the tap? continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Investment Returns: 1900-2017
David Buckland
May 3, 2018
Any investor looking for long term context should read the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School. They have analysed investment returns, volatility, and inflation from 23 countries since 1900. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why you need to keep an eye on US Treasury Bonds
Stuart Jackson
May 2, 2018
Many stockmarket investors don’t pay much attention to movements in US Treasury Bonds. But there are some very strong reasons why they should. And one of those is their impact on share prices. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.
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How to avoid being crunched by the next market correction
Roger Montgomery
April 26, 2018
Is the current period of higher market volatility, which began in January, just a foretaste of a tougher investment landscape ahead? All the indicators point in that direction. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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How alarmed should we be about rising levels of debt?
David Buckland
April 13, 2018
According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt hit US$237 trillion in the December 2017 Quarter, over 310 per cent of GDP of US$76 trillion. Global debt levels are at record highs in dollar terms and in relation to GDP. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Jeremy Grantham says beware the market ‘melt-up’
Roger Montgomery
April 11, 2018
Alas, there’s no magic signal to tell us when this market could savagely correct. The latest note of caution comes from famed US investor, Jeremy Grantham. He believes we are seeing a ‘melt-up’ in the stock market – the final stages of a great bubble near to bursting. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Investors beware: the warning light has begun to flash amber
Roger Montgomery
April 3, 2018
Warren Buffett recently observed that markets can quickly turn from green to red, without pausing at yellow. It was a veiled warning that when valuations are at extremes – as they are today – it doesn’t take much to trigger something serious. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What to Watch
Roger Montgomery
March 23, 2018
We have often written about the boom in non-income producing assets – such as collectibles – and the associated world record prices, as being a sign of the very late stages of a credit cycle. Eventually, the boom will unwind – it always does – and one consistent signal has usually been investors pulling back from one asset class even while other asset classes continue to party. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Dividends. What’s all the fuss?
Roger Montgomery
March 15, 2018
In the last few days Opposition Labor Leader Bill Shorten has proposed a radical transformation of dividend imputation. Putting aside his mistaken belief that his voters are “Aussie Battlers”- when in fact they are hard-working small business owners and contractors, many of whom receive franked dividends from their business endeavors – it’s worth looking at what all the fuss is about… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
