Market commentary

Right now, there’s a debate raging about the need to cut corporate tax rates in Australia. As usual, some of the arguments are overly simplified, if not misleading. The questions are: would a tax cut deliver the benefits spruiked by the government, and who would benefit the most? Let’s take a look. continue…

by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.

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Most of us know of the volatility index, otherwise known as the VIX.  But the inverse index – the XIV – was little known until a recent story surfaced about a trader who lost $4 million when the XIV lost 96 per cent of its value in one day.  It was a sobering reminder that this bull market can’t roll on forever. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As a new year begins, market predictions are coming in thick and fast. Significantly, in recent days, the views of some of the giants in the industry are echoing those we hold and have shared with our readers.  If we are right, then investors will need to be rather more nimble than usual this year. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Over the last six months, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average has soared 20 per cent to 26,500. But over the past week it has shed over 2,000 points or 8 per cent. The reason: a surge in yields on US Ten Year Government Treasury Bonds, which hit a four-year high of 2.86 per cent. With interest rates climbing, it’s time for investors to tread more warily. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Howard Marks co-founded Oaktree Capital in 1995, focusing on high yield bonds, distressed debt and private equity and it currently has over US$100 billion of funds under management. In March 2011, Howard Marks published the book The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor and it covered his investment strategies and analysis of market opportunity and risk. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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The Volatility Index – better known as ‘the VIX’ – is the most widely followed measure of stock market risk. Since March 2012, the VIX has remained stubbornly low, and some see this as a sign of a frothy market that’s about to sell off. I don’t necessarily agree, but what’s the best investment strategy just in case they’re right? continue…

by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Only time will tell if a bull or bear market awaits investors in 2018.  There’s plenty of ammunition for both scenarios.  But I think it will pay investors to look closely at the boundaries marked by the bull and bear cases, and treat them like the flags between which they must swim.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Late last year, I discussed some of the main arguments underpinning a bearish outlook for the Australian consumer and, in turn, major bank loan book growth. But what about the counter argument? In particular, could the tightening labour market create stronger wage growth and thereby boost consumption? continue…

by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.

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As 2017 has drawn to a close, let’s take a look at the year that was. Excluding dividends, the Australian market put on 7.8 per cent in 2017, and 7.0 per cent in the six months to December.  Over the year, several indices did significantly better, including the Hong Kong Hang Seng up 36.0 per cent, the US Nasdaq up 28.2 per cent, the Indian Sensex up 27.9 per cent, the New Zealand Gross 50 up 22.0 per cent, the US S&P 500 up 19.4 per cent and the Japanese Nikkei 225 up 19.1 per cent. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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For some time, we have outlined our concerns regarding the growing constraints on the Australian household sector due to various elements. In the first part of a two-part blog I will identify one argument. Will the slowing or a reversal of household wealth creation have negative implications for many companies?

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by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.

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