Market commentary
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What to Watch
Roger Montgomery
March 23, 2018
We have often written about the boom in non-income producing assets – such as collectibles – and the associated world record prices, as being a sign of the very late stages of a credit cycle. Eventually, the boom will unwind – it always does – and one consistent signal has usually been investors pulling back from one asset class even while other asset classes continue to party. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Dividends. What’s all the fuss?
Roger Montgomery
March 15, 2018
In the last few days Opposition Labor Leader Bill Shorten has proposed a radical transformation of dividend imputation. Putting aside his mistaken belief that his voters are “Aussie Battlers”- when in fact they are hard-working small business owners and contractors, many of whom receive franked dividends from their business endeavors – it’s worth looking at what all the fuss is about… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Roger Montgomery
March 5, 2018
The market ructions in early February were a genuine ‘shot-across-the-bows’ – a warning to investors about the longevity of easy credit, soaring asset prices and ultra-low volatility. That’s why, with markets potentially on the verge of a big reversal, we think it’s prudent to hold more cash. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Could a US housing crisis happen here?
Roger Montgomery
March 1, 2018
There is one common theme in the vast number of financial crises the world has seen – excessive debt. So, with Australia’s ratio of household debt to disposable income approaching 200 per cent, it’s time for investors to get super-cautious. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Property.
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A crash is coming, and Jim Rogers says it will be a doozy
Roger Montgomery
February 23, 2018
Legendary investor, Jim Rogers, is a famed perma-bear. But this month Rogers stepped it up. He predicted that the next bear market will be “the worst in our lifetime”, fueled by a world that is laden with debt, and that it will occur within the next two years.
continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Should Australia cut the corporate tax rate?
Andreas Lundberg
February 19, 2018
Right now, there’s a debate raging about the need to cut corporate tax rates in Australia. As usual, some of the arguments are overly simplified, if not misleading. The questions are: would a tax cut deliver the benefits spruiked by the government, and who would benefit the most? Let’s take a look. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Beware the pitfalls of speculating on this market
Roger Montgomery
February 19, 2018
Most of us know of the volatility index, otherwise known as the VIX. But the inverse index – the XIV – was little known until a recent story surfaced about a trader who lost $4 million when the XIV lost 96 per cent of its value in one day. It was a sobering reminder that this bull market can’t roll on forever. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Will the ‘everything bubble’ pop this year?
Roger Montgomery
February 12, 2018
As a new year begins, market predictions are coming in thick and fast. Significantly, in recent days, the views of some of the giants in the industry are echoing those we hold and have shared with our readers. If we are right, then investors will need to be rather more nimble than usual this year. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why rising interest rates have sent the Dow south
David Buckland
February 6, 2018
Over the last six months, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average has soared 20 per cent to 26,500. But over the past week it has shed over 2,000 points or 8 per cent. The reason: a surge in yields on US Ten Year Government Treasury Bonds, which hit a four-year high of 2.86 per cent. With interest rates climbing, it’s time for investors to tread more warily. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Vertical market movements don’t mean caution should be discarded
David Buckland
January 31, 2018
Howard Marks co-founded Oaktree Capital in 1995, focusing on high yield bonds, distressed debt and private equity and it currently has over US$100 billion of funds under management. In March 2011, Howard Marks published the book The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor and it covered his investment strategies and analysis of market opportunity and risk. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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