Market commentary
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It’s time to say adios to the Global Everything Boom
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2018
Over the last 10 years, quantitative easing (QE) by many of the world’s central banks has driven down interest rates and steered large numbers of ‘investors’ to speculate on the appreciation of anything, creating what’s been called the Global Everything Boom. But now the boom is waning, and highly indebted speculators better watch out. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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A “pullback” or a “serious bear market”?
David Buckland
November 8, 2018
Over the past five decades the share-market, as measured by the US S&P 500 Index, has recorded 24 “pullbacks” exceeding ten percentage points. On six of these occasions, or one in four of the “pullbacks”, we have witnessed a “serious bear market”, or a decline exceeding 25 per cent, as illustrated in the table below. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Volatile world markets are telling us to stay cautious
Roger Montgomery
November 5, 2018
For the last year or so, we’ve been warning readers that the extended run-up in world markets was getting closer to the end. While October’s price falls saw some of the froth blown off the top, we think this may be just the beginning of a long grind lower. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Navigating Choppy Markets
Tim Kelley
October 29, 2018
October has been unkind to equity investments. As I write, the ASX200 is down more than 8 per cent month to date, and most global indices show similar numbers. At a time like this, concepts that previously seemed theoretical become much more tangible, and investor focus naturally shifts from return to risk. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Market commentary.
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Unemployed or underemployed?
Andreas Lundberg
October 25, 2018
Australian Bureau of Statistics released their September labour force statistics on Thursday last week. As you might have seen in the newspaper, the headline number was positive showing a sharp drop in the unemployment rate which fell by 0.3% points from August to 5.0 per cent which is the lowest since before the mining industry downturn in 2012. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
INTEREST RATES, THE BEST IT GETS. IT’S TIME TO DEPLOY CASH
Curious about the investment landscape in 2024? It appears that the current market offers a plethora of enticing opportunities for investors, a rarity not experienced since pre-pandemic times. This unique scenario stems from a confluence of factors, including elevated yields and comparatively rational equity valuations.
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Is our market lulled into a false sense of security?
Roger Montgomery
October 22, 2018
One look at the best performers on the ASX tells you the market is sanguine about risk. How else to explain the soaring valuations of companies like Afterpay, Appen and Altium? I fear this is the calm before the storm, and today’s high returns and low volatility might soon make way for lower returns and higher volatility. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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When will the gap between the most expensive and cheapest companies contract?
Roger Montgomery
October 19, 2018
If the last few months has reinforced anything, it is that the market can remain irrational for a very long time. Despite already being expensive, the disparity between the cheapest and most expensive has widened even further in recent months. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Debt levels are indeed hurting
Andreas Lundberg
October 17, 2018
Data that forms an investment thesis is not always presented in the most coherent and easy to digest manner. It is indeed often the case that once data has been distilled into a form that is easy to draw conclusions from, it is often too late to act on as the trend has already become obvious. It is therefore often even more interesting to look at more circumstantial data that can give an early indication of the future direction of the more substantiated data. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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What is “Cash” and Why it Matters – Narrow Road Capital
Roger Montgomery
October 2, 2018
With punitive rates, and even negative in some jurisdictions, cash has become a liability for many in recent years. But cash is actually most valuable when nobody else has any and given our belief that the value of cash is increasing, Jonathan Rochford from Narrow Road Capital provides a note that is incredibly timely. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Howard Marks takes the market’s Temperature
Roger Montgomery
September 27, 2018
Legendary Value investor, Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital has just released his latest memo to investors overnight. His observation that “overly generous capital markets ultimately lead to unwise financing, and thus to danger for participants” is worth noting with respect to Australia’s recent property boom… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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