Market commentary
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Farewell 2021, hello 2022
David Buckland
January 6, 2022
Given the sell-off in bond yields so far this year, rising inflationary expectations, and the collapse of the Evergrande Group in China, it is unsurprising many global share market indices took a breather and recorded a relatively lacklustre December 2021 half-year in terms of performance. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why I think 2022 will be a very good year for investors
Roger Montgomery
January 5, 2022
A year ago, I wrote an article in The Australian which set out the factors I thought would make it a very good year for equities. So far, the local market has behaved as expected – despite all the turmoil in the world – with the All Ordinaries up 13.6 per cent for the 12 months to 31 December 2021. Looking ahead, I think markets will continue to reward investors, particularly those who invest in quality businesses. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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A review of markets in 2021
Joseph Kim
December 17, 2021
2021 is almost in the books, and it’s once again time to have a quick review of how markets fared. While noticeably less “historic” than 2020’s record breaking year in terms of market volatility and extraordinary events, there were enough developments to keep market participants on their toes. (As an aside, it’s possible the 24 hour news cycle, rapid digestion of information and short-termism will mean volatility of returns will remain a feature going forward). continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Market commentary.
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What bicycle prices tell us about today’s inflation numbers
Roger Montgomery
December 5, 2021
In a sign that inflation may be stickier than once thought, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, no longer describes it as ‘transitory’. And if you’ve been shopping for a bicycle of late, you’d probably agree. This is highlighted in a recent story by The Wall Street Journal, which gives a fascinating insight into the impact on prices of pandemic-inspired goods demand, and supply chain bottlenecks. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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New Zealand cash rates – the canary in the coal mine?
David Buckland
November 29, 2021
My son, Angus, ventured into the Sydney residential market at the beginning of the year acquiring a small apartment, with what I considered to be an enormous loan from one of the Big Four. At the time the fixed four-year home loan rate was around 1.95 per cent per annum. Today, the advertised rate has jumped 1.0 per cent per annum to around 2.95 per cent. This reflects the Australian four-year Government Bond yield moving up from 0.20 per cent at the beginning of 2021 to the current 1.32 per cent. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
INTEREST RATES, THE BEST IT GETS. IT’S TIME TO DEPLOY CASH
Curious about the investment landscape in 2024? It appears that the current market offers a plethora of enticing opportunities for investors, a rarity not experienced since pre-pandemic times. This unique scenario stems from a confluence of factors, including elevated yields and comparatively rational equity valuations.
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Inflation fears will soon fade…
Roger Montgomery
November 19, 2021
Investors worry about inflation but forget to consider the income side of the equation. Will inflation fears this time next year be a distant memory? I currently believe investors should take advantage of any inflation scare that adversely impacts equity prices, as an opportunity. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Unemployment figures surprise negatively
Andreas Lundberg
November 15, 2021
On Thursday 11 of November, the monthly unemployment numbers from ABS were released and disappointed the market by increasing by 0.6 percentage points from 4.6 per cent in October to 5.2 per cent. The consensus amongst forecasters was a slight increase to 4.8 per cent so we can understand that the market took this negatively as it is quite a large variation and also a sharp reversal of the trend of falling unemployment that we have seen since the peak at the initial phase of the pandemic. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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US inflation has touched a thirty year high in October
Roger Montgomery
November 12, 2021
Just-reported US inflation has touched a thirty year high in October. US annual inflation is now at 6.2 per cent with price increases recorded for everything from fuel, new and used cars to rent and supermarket groceries. Investors in the US are now concerned with holidays around the corner, and with supply chains still disrupted, inflation could go even higher. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Where to invest if inflation takes hold
Roger Montgomery
November 5, 2021
Will inflation be transitory or more long lasting? Right now, the jury is out, and only time will tell. But the signs do not look good due to surging energy prices, supply bottlenecks and worker shortages. My advice is to focus on high quality companies with real pricing power. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Two businesses to put in your Christmas stocking
Roger Montgomery
October 29, 2021
At the Montgomery Small Companies Fund, our small caps team’s approach is to invest in businesses that benefit from supportive underlying themes. Two themes we like right now are what we call Stable Compounders and Structural Winners. And we have two preferred stocks – one in each theme – that we think will provide solid long-term returns. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Stocks We Like.
