Market commentary
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In support of the bulls
Roger Montgomery
August 31, 2023
We’ve recently shared several posts, and appeared in the odd media interview, explaining why equity investors might have cause to pause. After a significant rally in the U.S. S&P500, there are several reasons why we anticipate a sell-off in equities in the upcoming days and weeks. However, markets consist of both buyers and sellers. To provide a more balanced perspective, in this article we delve in the reasons behavioural finance experts believe the U.S. equity market rally might persist until the year’s end. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Wrapping up the 2023 financial year reporting season: A mix of resilience and uncertainty
Roger Montgomery
August 30, 2023
In this week’s video insight, Roger Montgomery delves into the recently concluded 2023 financial year reporting season which presented a mixed picture. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Private Credit outclassing the asset classes
Roger Montgomery
August 30, 2023
Every six months, Morningstar assembles its Annual Asset Class Returns “gameboard” (Figure1.). The matrix displays the performance of seven major asset classes over the last 20 financial years to 30 June 2023. While the compilation doesn’t offer much by way of predictive value, its usefulness is in its educational content. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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The great Australian shift: A new dawn for income investment
Roger Montgomery
August 29, 2023
Last week’s ‘Intergenerational Report 2023’ released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, underscores a pivotal shift: as Australia ages, the market emphasis will transition from capital growth to income. Sophisticated investors, take note. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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What do the latest consumer spending insights tell us?
Roger Montgomery
August 21, 2023
In July, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) published its inaugural monthly household spending insights (HSI) Index, replacing the superseded ‘intentions’ index. Based on online, Bpay, debit, and credit card transaction data, the insights are indeed comprehensive, coming from the bank’s seven million customers. Contrast that with a typical report or survey of a few thousand customers! This report, drawn from de-identified payments data, offers valuable insights into spending trends, and it has revealed a tightening of consumer belts with a decline in spending growth nationally to a modest 1.3 per cent in the year leading up to July. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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Could equities give back some of their 2023 gains?
Roger Montgomery
August 19, 2023
If the headline didn’t grab your attention, that’s probably because you thought it was about interest rates. In fact, it’s about the equity market itself. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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The great recession that never was. Should we sound the all-clear? No
Roger Montgomery
August 18, 2023
Panic and speculation about a significant economic downturn in the U.S. have been part of financial discourse over the past year. Many analysts and most economists were expecting a recession, a negative shift in the economic tide, and that fear is what prevented many investors from buying equities and missing out on the gains since November. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Uncertain Central Banks requires diversification
Roger Montgomery
August 14, 2023
Have you noticed in recent months central banks have been ambiguous about their future policy actions? This could be because they don’t know what the future holds, or it could be intentional. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Deflation and economic growth now suggested by the U.S. Fed
Roger Montgomery
August 10, 2023
Let me share some fresh insights affirming a view we have articulated since November last year: A recession is not inevitable, and 2023 could be a stellar year for stocks, particularly if deflation is accompanied by even anaemic economic growth. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why a U.S. recession is no sure thing
Roger Montgomery
July 27, 2023
Fears of a U.S. recession and its impact on small companies may be one reason the share prices of many small caps have been subdued over the past year. But is a recession inevitable? Possibly not, if you look at recent data. For investors, this means many quality businesses are likely trading at very attractive prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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