Market commentary

As we kick off 2026, I turned to UK-based Crossborder Capital’s latest global liquidity update by Michael Howell, noting booms and bubbles cannot occur without ample liquidity. The artificial intelligence (AI) boom was born of liquidity. Without ample central bank accommodation, we would not even be talking about AI, perhaps not even whispering about it except in a few university laboratories. 

According to Howell, the 2026 financial landscape is a stage set for drama. His latest view on the prospects for crypto and risk assets in 2026 argues that while monetary inflation is here to stay as governments’ go-to fix for fiscal/budget woes, a looming downswing in global liquidity could produce turbulence for risk assets. Drawing from his analysis of cycles, correlations, and historical patterns, he likes positions in gold and cryptocurrencies as essential hedges – but advises investors to buy on dips. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation

I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s Summer Series to discuss whether the powerful rally driven by artificial intelligence (AI) may now be approaching it’s peak. Drawing on lessons from past technology booms, I explained that although investors can correctly predict that a technology (in this case, AI) will change the course of humanity – it doesn’t automatically translate to great investment returns. The issue becomes apparent when a theme is perceived as structural, when in fact it is cyclical. We can see this in AI stocks where valuations have been inflated to a point that cannot be sustained. 

While no one can call the exact timing of an unwind, signs suggest the best part of the run for many AI-linked stocks may be behind us. For investors, perhaps they should consider rebalancing their portfolios after strong equity gains and spread capital more evenly across opportunities beyond the AI theme.

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to reflect on how markets closed out in 2025 and what may lie ahead in 2026. Last year was again dominated by artificial intelligence (AI) and the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla). However, with valuations now stretched amongst these technology leaders, there may be opportunities for investors beyond the headlines.  continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies, Market commentary, Small Caps, Stocks We Like, TV Appearances

As we turn the page on 2025, it is a useful time to step back and reflect on what shaped markets over the year just passed. In this article, I review the key themes that influenced global equities, interest rates, commodities, and currencies, highlighting where investors were rewarded, where conditions became more challenging, and what these developments may mean as we look ahead. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular

In my latest article for Firstlinks, I reflect on why 2025 delivered another strong year for equities, supported by the continued combination of disinflation and positive economic growth – with much of the strength driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI).

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet

While most currently consider bubbles a dangerous precondition for a stock market crash, they can also be better navigated by appreciating they’re a necessary step on the road to humanity’s advancement.

As I have noted previously, there’s a myriad of definitions for asset bubbles, but most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.
This article was first published in The Australian on 20 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications

In my video insight ‘How General Purpose Technology booms end”, last month, I spoke about the five stages of a GPT boom and the inevitable, sometimes violent, way they end. I suggested that while the latest GPT – Artificial Intelligence (AI) – is undoubtedly life-altering and ultimately structural, the commercial path to its adoption is governed by cyclicality and the cost of capital. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

As investors, if we’re intellectually honest, we’re bound to be wrong a few times more than we would like. And the longer the investment career, the higher the accumulated mistakes pile up. So how do successful investors survive them and continue to build on their success?

In holiday mode, I was re-reading some vintage Graham and Dodd, and what struck me was how minimal the damage from their mistakes would be, thanks to the safeguards built into their approach. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

Goldman Sachs Research represents one of the largest stockbroking firms in the world.  So, it should come as no surprise that the investment bank has recently published its stock market outlook for the next decade, predicting an average annual return of almost eight per cent.

But if you’ve grown accustomed to smooth and steady gains, you may need to recalibrate your expectations, despite Goldman Sachs’ reassurances. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation

According to Google, Matt Stoller is a prominent American writer, researcher, and anti-monopoly advocate, known for his work at the American Economic Liberties Project and his popular Substack newsletter, BIG, which focuses on market power, antitrust, and the war against monopolies. He’s a former policy advisor and a key figure in the modern anti-monopoly movement, advocating for breaking up large corporations and promoting competition, drawing support from across the political spectrum. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary