Market commentary

I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss how Middle East tensions and fuel shortages could impact markets, noting that while a large share of oil supply is at risk, prices have been more contained than in past crises. I highlighted that the key risk is how long the conflict lasts, with a prolonged disruption likely to put pressure on growth, drive up costs and weigh on sentiment.

Listen to the segment from 33:06 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Radio

Throughout history, there’s been a tidal quality to the flow of capital because there is a tidal quality to the human condition. Every new technology, after welding on its inventors, attracts its devotees who, believing – often correctly – the tech will change the world, become the pied pipers for many more investors. If they’re successful, they generate a groundswell of financial, government, and social support that converge to drive their vision and their wealth, often to heights that natural laws cannot support. 

That intersection of innovation and capital is a phenomenon that has long fascinated. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive last week to unpack what a recession really means and whether Australia is already experiencing one on a per-capita basis. I highlighted how rising interest rates, energy costs and government policy pressures are squeezing households, while strong migration is masking weaker individual economic conditions, and warned that without structural reform Australia risks drifting into stagflation, where growth slows but inflation remains elevated. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary, Radio

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how markets could respond when the war ends, noting a short conflict may trigger a relief rally while a prolonged one could see markets fall further before recovering. I also highlighted that beyond near-term volatility, investors should be paying closer attention to the growing risks around the U.S. debt trajectory.

With interest rates now exceeding economic growth and global demand for U.S. Treasuries softening as countries shift toward gold, the cost of funding is rising and the risk of a debt spiral is increasing. While that presents a longer-term concern, I also see potential upside, particularly if an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven bubble unwinds and creates opportunities to buy high-quality businesses at compelling valuations. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances

In a fascinating Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, published this week, the U.S. state of Wyoming reportedly bought 2,312 ounces of gold in December after passing a law requiring the state’s investment portfolio to add precious metals as a hedge against economic turmoil.

According to the WSJ, “Among [Wyoming’s] worries are rising federal debt, inflation and a weak U.S. dollar – but also more extreme calamities, according to Bob Ide, a Republican state senator and lead sponsor of the ‘Wyoming Gold Act.”

For me, however, it was Ide’s comment about a U.S. default that piqued my interest, and should yours. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

While many of us here in Australia are left aghast after spending any time doom-scrolling through the latest chaotic headlines from the Republican Administration in the United States, a far more immediate and flagrant brand of political decay is festering closer to home, in the state of Victoria.

It is a curious phenomenon of modern life that we are often more outraged by a tweet from Washington than by the systematic erosion of integrity in our own backyard, yet after twelve years of Labor government, the Garden State has become a case study in self-interest and institutionalised corruption.

Last week, Victoria’s Liberals and Nationals introduced a bill to give Victoria’s anti-corruption watchdog, Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC), the powers it has been asking for since 2017 – the power to follow the money and investigate $15 billion of corruption in the Big Build. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary

I joined Philip Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the shift toward a more volatile market environment in 2026. With inflation likely rising again, growth slowing and oil prices climbing, the key conditions that supported recent equity gains are fading. We also explored potential war scenarios involving Iran and how they could impact markets, inflation and interest rates.

Given this backdrop, I highlighted the need to rethink portfolio construction, with private credit emerging as a potential alternative offering attractive income with lower volatility. We also touched on rising fuel costs, price pressures on consumers, and broader structural challenges in Australia’s economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Aura Group, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio

The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U.S.-linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year. And arguably, as intended, it has distracted everyone from the Epstein files.

At the time of writing Brent and WTI crude were up $US15 to $US107 a barrel. The Nikkei plummeted 4.5 per cent, and U.S. futures have cratered by as much as two per cent. So, why has a single drone strike erased billions in equity value across the globe?

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 March 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary

With the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil, the largest ever since its creation in the 1970s, to lower crude prices from the war with Iran, it might inspire some investors to believe the threat to markets has been assuaged. But at the same time, Iran has attacked approximately 20 commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz so far.

The Strait is now part of the Middle East war’s frontline as Iran seeks to inflict maximum economic pain on the world in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes on its territory. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary

The Trump administration’s decision to initiate a wide-scale military campaign against Iran, recently coined Operation Epic Fury, can be viewed through a number of lenses.  Some might say the strikes have been framed by Washington as a multifaceted necessity for global and domestic security. Others may simply say, the justifications for the strikes keep changing. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary