Market commentary

While most currently consider bubbles a dangerous precondition for a stock market crash, they can also be better navigated by appreciating they’re a necessary step on the road to humanity’s advancement.

As I have noted previously, there’s a myriad of definitions for asset bubbles, but most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.
This article was first published in The Australian on 20 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In my video insight ‘How General Purpose Technology booms end”, last month, I spoke about the five stages of a GPT boom and the inevitable, sometimes violent, way they end. I suggested that while the latest GPT – Artificial Intelligence (AI) – is undoubtedly life-altering and ultimately structural, the commercial path to its adoption is governed by cyclicality and the cost of capital. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As investors, if we’re intellectually honest, we’re bound to be wrong a few times more than we would like. And the longer the investment career, the higher the accumulated mistakes pile up. So how do successful investors survive them and continue to build on their success?

In holiday mode, I was re-reading some vintage Graham and Dodd, and what struck me was how minimal the damage from their mistakes would be, thanks to the safeguards built into their approach. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Goldman Sachs Research represents one of the largest stockbroking firms in the world.  So, it should come as no surprise that the investment bank has recently published its stock market outlook for the next decade, predicting an average annual return of almost eight per cent.

But if you’ve grown accustomed to smooth and steady gains, you may need to recalibrate your expectations, despite Goldman Sachs’ reassurances. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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According to Google, Matt Stoller is a prominent American writer, researcher, and anti-monopoly advocate, known for his work at the American Economic Liberties Project and his popular Substack newsletter, BIG, which focuses on market power, antitrust, and the war against monopolies. He’s a former policy advisor and a key figure in the modern anti-monopoly movement, advocating for breaking up large corporations and promoting competition, drawing support from across the political spectrum. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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This Christmas, perhaps more than any other in recent years, it might be time to spare a thought for Ernest Hemingway’s short story The Capital of the World. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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2025 has been an eventful year, with some strong returns – but what comes next? I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed to break down the forces that shaped markets this year. Looking ahead to 2026, I explain why investors should expect higher volatility, limited future gains given today’s stretched valuations, and why rebalancing portfolios into alternative offerings that are uncorrelated to markets should be considered. 

You can catch the full episode here: What investors might expect in 2026 continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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Time Magazine has awarded the 2025 person of the year to…wait for it…a group of people. The architects of artificial intelligence (AI) have been nominated for this year’s cover.

Before the advent of digital magazines, billions were spent annually on buying physical magazines representing every topic and subculture known to man. And magazine cover trading became a contrarian way to invest. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Let’s state the obvious right at the outset: No one knows for certain if the equity market will crash.

The reality of investing is that we can rarely identify a bubble until after it has burst, which means we can never be sure when we are inside one. However, with that necessary disclaimer in place, I am reasonably confident that investors should prepare for a shift in 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Debt nuances

I just read the following sentence: “Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) rich clouds are now raising multi-billion-dollar debt with GPUs as collateral.”

It got me thinking… continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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