Market commentary

As Christmas approaches and we gradually unplug from the frenzied activity of another year, I’d like to leave you with a brief summary of the year that was, provide some guidance on what 2025 might bring and offer you my prayers for a safe and peaceful Christmas. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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At the beginning of 2024, investors and commentators were almost unified in their belief that after a solid 2023, more modest returns were likely. An article in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) at the beginning of the year described the market thus: “An inexplicable and self-perpetuating melt-up that veteran analysts unanimously agree defies the fundamentals is powering the broader index to all-time highs.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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According to multiple commentators and outlets reporting on those commentators, the equity market is now at a euphoric level – officially. Evidently, there’s a measure for euphoria produced by Callum Thomas, the founder of Topdowncharts, in Queenstown, New Zealand. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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If you haven’t yet, read Bored apes and bananas – Part 1

Since the beginning of the year, some commentators have voiced concerns that equity valuations have become historically stretched. Thanks to the rally in technology stocks, Wall Street’s major indices have displayed historically high valuation metrics such as the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) shiller ratio. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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John Templeton famously observed; bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.

With several commentators now labelling markets euphoric, the call for a correction is becoming louder. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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One of the most frequently asked questions by investors following Trump’s election victory is: what sectors will do well? While much remains unknowable about Trump’s second term, his “promises made, promises kept” statement during his victory speech suggests not all is a mystery.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary

We first published this blog back in August, but that might have been a little premature. With the U.S. voting for their next president in 24 hours, we think publishing today is more timely. Enjoy. 

While the U.S. presidential campaign is entertaining to watch from afar (and more than a little disturbing this time around), spare a thought for our friends in the U.S. who have to sort through the rhetoric, lies, and assassination attempts to select their leader for the next four years. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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It was, for example, wise to be alert to the possibility of a large move lower if volatility emerged after a long rally. And while it has been my experience that volatility does indeed cluster around major turning points, it’s possible I only remember what I want to. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, In the Press, Market commentary.

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It’s fascinating to read about the latest prognostications of those who manage billions of dollars of their own or others’ money.

I guess I must be a bit of a collector because I like to make lists of their comments for no other reason than to admire them against one another.

continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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My prediction, for what it is worth, remains that small-caps should outperform their large-cap brethren, and conditions appear supportive for the share prices of innovative companies with pricing power and growth until the beginning of 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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