Market commentary

Financial markets are acting like a friend who says one thing but does another. Investors are sending conflicting messages about the economy, interest rates, and what’s coming next.

The mixed signals

Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by up to two per cent over this easing cycle. Trump of course, always the glutton, wants even more. That’s a big deal – rate cuts of this size usually happen when the economy is in trouble or heading into a recession. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment to boost a slowing economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Metallurgical or coking coal, a major input in steelmaking, has seen its price decline from US$670/tonne to the current US$183/tonne over the past three years. A global oversupply of steel, low steel prices and uncertainty regarding global trade has led to muted demand. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary.

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The title of this blog post was going to be ‘How to mismanage an economy’. I decided against it because the cynical answer could seriously abbreviate the blog post to just, Give it to Victoria’s Labor government.

In Victoria, State Member for Warrandyte, Nicole Werner, recently outlined and commented on the state government’s imposition of yet another new tax. A new land tax on those running any business activities from their homes. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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When Warren Buffett was asked to distil the essence of investing success, he offered the following:

“Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, 10 and 20 years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards – so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio’s market value.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.

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An examination of asset class returns over the last twelve months, including residential property in various capital cities, reveals Bitcoin’s superior performance. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In what some have described as a ‘dramatic’ 218-214 vote, the U.S. House narrowly passed President Trump’s US$3.4 trillion “Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a nearly 900-page tax-and-spending package that does mark a major victory for Trump and GOP (Republican Party) leaders. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The race to lead in artificial intelligence (AI) feels like a modern gold rush, but instead of more power or better performance, the latest race is for people – brilliant minds. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Stepping back from the tidal wave of Trump’s pronouncements, backtracks and absurdly weak understanding of basic arithmetic (“egg prices have fallen 400 per cent!”), today’s investing environment is one of the most dynamic in recent history, shaped by transformative technological advancements, the threat of war, dynamic and unpredictable economic policies, and evolving investor behaviours. From the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to the resurgence of retail investing and the spectre of market bubbles, the current landscape demands a little reflection. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The Magnificent Seven; Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Meta (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which rose by an average 111 per cent over calendar 2023, continued its strong upward trajectory, increasing a further 63 per cent, on average, over calendar year 2024. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Market commentary.

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Keeping an eye on the condition of the U.S. economy is necessary for international equity investing, as changes will ultimately influence whether rates are cut. One recent data point suggests another sector of the economy there is slowing. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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