Market commentary

U.S. President Donald Trump has embarked on what some say is a belligerent and dangerous mission to upend and reshape the international economic and competitive landscape through a series of aggressive tariff policy changes. His approach which is characterised by sudden shifts and strategic reversals, aims to bolster American manufacturing and fill government coffers. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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It hasn’t been widely reported (which could, of course, mean I am about to repeat the common mistake of reading too much into a central banker’s utterances), but earlier in March, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, dropped a subtle remark that may shed light on the central bank’s mindset. As the Federal Reserve heads into its meeting this week, Powell’s words may also carry weight for the unpredictable economic road ahead. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the three key influences of market performance – inflation, economic growth, and liquidity – and how they can adversely or positively affect the market. In January and February this year we have already seen; the launch of a Chinese LLM (Large Language Model) which created waves in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) space, Trump’s imposition of tariffs (across China, Canada, Mexio and Europe), rising inflation, and increased geopolitical tension. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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It’s been a record run for stocks. The past two years delivered historic returns for global and U.S. stocks. Indeed, the 24- months ending 31 December 2024 ranks as one of the top 10 two-year periods since the middle of last century. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market commentary.

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The front-of-mind topic for investors, now that reporting season is over, is what Trump’s trade wars and tariffs, the potential of an end to AI-related stock leadership, and general volatility mean for the stock market’s outlook. Today we touch on one of the bullish arguments I came across in my readings. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Seasoned equities investors are always prepared for the rollercoaster ride that markets can deliver, but the post-U.S.-Presidential-election period has delivered a particularly dizzying ride, especially for those riding the ‘Trump Bump’. Is it over? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I am somewhat aghast to read of the latest tweet from the Chinese embassy in the United States. It reminds me of a disturbing historical pattern of conflict and caused me to consider the similarities with past pre-war triggers. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Here’s something curious: the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) – an organisation with over 160,000 members – has a sentiment survey that offers insight into the opinions of individual investors by asking them their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months. They have been conducting the weekly survey of members since 1987.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Liquidity is a concept critical to understanding investment markets.

Back in mid to late 2022, we wrote several posts on our blog and articles in The Australian, compelling investors to consider and pay attention to the very low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios at which equities were trading. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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First, it was DeepSeek, and now it’s tariffs. Investors will need to endure more volatility, while those hoping for cheaper prices to enter the market might have their wish granted this week.

You might not think Trump’s imposition of tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China has anything to do with your Australian equity portfolio but think again. The next few days could see markets move materially. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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