Intrinsic Value
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David Jones: Non retailers distracted by a takeover?
Roger Montgomery
September 21, 2012
This week David Jones announced their 2012 results and reported a 40% decline in profit. The only positive was that 4th quarter sales fell by just 1% on pcp whereas 1st quarter sales had fallen 11% on pcp. Actually there was another positive; the 35% decline in earnings per share was inline with expectations.
Separately the company also provided an update to its property strategy. Investors should understand that anything DJS does with its properties is simply a takeover defence against private equity (or Premier Investments perhaps) pulling off the same stunt that was done on Myer. That is; launch a takeover, succeed, sell off the property portfolio and get the business cheaper. if DJS shows it is proactive in this area it becomes much harder from Private Equity to argue that they are “adding value”.
DJS intrinsic value (see Fig. 1) has now not increased since 2004 and according to Skaffold.com DJS’s intrinsic value is not expected to rise at all over the next two years.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Takeovers.
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New ASX Investment Talk – Beating the Index
Roger Montgomery
September 14, 2012
Join Roger as he explains how the long-standing principles of value investing can be applied so that you too can identify A1 businesses for your portfolio and beat the index. Watch here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market Valuation.
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MEDIA
Round 1: Value Investing vs the “new” paradigm – you be the judge……
Roger Montgomery
September 10, 2012
One of the constants of the last 10 years is market commentators saying that “this time is different” – we believe that the principles of of value investing never change, and Roger articulates the reasons why in this interview with Ticky Fullerton (and Marcus Padley!) on ABC1’s The Business, broadcast 7 September 2012. Watch here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, TV Appearances.
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GWA – as close to a bond as you can get – pity about the share price
Roger Montgomery
September 3, 2012
Portfolio point: Reporting season is in full swing and there have been some excellent results. We always watch GWA because it’s a company that has the potential to regain its crown but the 2012 results didn’t inspire.
GWA is a leader in the design, manufacture, import and distribution of bathroom & kitchen products, door and access systems, and heating & cooling products. Brand names of these three core building fixtures and fittings divisions include Caroma, Dorf, Fower, Brivis, Dux, Gainsborough and Trilock. Analysis of virtually every financial measure over the past five years has seen GWA demonstrate bond like qualities.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Manufacturing.
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MEDIA
What are Russell Muldoon’s latest insights into Australian residential construction?
Russell Muldoon
August 30, 2012
Do Gerard Lighting Group (GLG), Woodside Petroleum (WPL), Vocus Communications (VOC), CSL (CSL), Credit Corporation (CCP), Silex Systems (SLX), Boart Longyear (BLY), Mineral Holdings (MIN) and NRW Holdings (NWH) make the coveted Skaffold A1 score? Watch this edition of Sky Business’ Your Money Your Call broadcast 25 July 2012 to find out, and also learn Russell’s thoughts on the state of the Australian residential construction market. Watch here.
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, TV Appearances.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
READ HERE -
Credit Corp’s results announcement
Roger Montgomery
August 7, 2012
Credit Corp (ASX:CCP) has just reported their FY12 results, announcing a NPAT of $26.6m versus market forecasts and company guidance of $25-28m.
The company increased its 2H12 dividend to 16 cps and most analysts were expecting 15 cps forecast. The 16 cent dividend takes the full year dividend to 29 cents, which is 45% higher on the previous year. The company has talked down the forthcoming year and cited increasing competition resulting in higher ledger purchases. Investors need to accept this at face value rather than continuing to assume the company will upgrade again at the next half year (as they have done consistently in the past). FY13 guidance for NPAT is $27-29m and DPS of 29-32 cps. Based on an estimated 50% payout and an estimated 22% ROE our valuation is further estimated (estimated being the operative word here) to remain well above the current price. The comments here are for educational purposes only and not a recommendation. Be sure to seek and take personal financial advice prior to engaging in any securities transactions.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market Valuation.
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MEDIA
What are Roger’s insights into the Banking sector?
Roger Montgomery
August 1, 2012
Do Newcrest Mining (NCM), Breville Group (BRG), Commonweath Bank (CBA), Westpac (WBC), Wotif.com (WTF) and CSL (CSL) make Roger’s coveted A1 grade? Watch this edition of Sky Business’ Your Money Your Call broadcast 1 August 2012 to find out, and also learn Roger’s current insights into the Mining Services sector. Watch here
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, TV Appearances.
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MEDIA
Running out of puff
Roger Montgomery
August 1, 2012
In his August 2012 Money Magazine article Roger discusses how company weighting in Australian market indices distort the overall performance. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value.
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MEDIA
Have we finally reached the bottom of the market?
Roger Montgomery
July 30, 2012
And what are Roger Montgomery’s Value.able Insights into the latest market developments? Learn more in this edition of ABC1’s “Inside Business” broadcast 29 July 2012. Read/Watch here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Intrinsic Value, Market Valuation, Takeovers, TV Appearances.
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MEDIA
Are Fairfax cutting the fat or cutting the flesh?
Roger Montgomery
June 20, 2012
Roger Montgomery and Ross Greenwood discuss the recent Fairfax Media (FXJ) restructuring announcement and its implications in this edition of Ross’ program on Radio 2GB broadcast 20 June 2012. Listen here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market Valuation, Radio.
