Global markets
-
Sovereign debt yields continue to climb – is a debt crisis on the cards?
David Buckland
October 12, 2026
In the past six years, French Government ten-year bond yield has jumped from negative 0.3 per cent to 4.9 per cent, the highest level in 24 years. Investors are starting to differentiate between each euro-denominated country with German and Dutch ten-year bonds yielding 3.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, Greek and Italian ten-year bonds yield 4.55 per cent and 4.65 per cent, respectively, indicating potential contagion as confidence appears to be in short supply. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
-
Generational market top?
Roger Montgomery
October 9, 2026
Independent economic research and investment strategy firm Variant Perception (VP) has shared its latest market musings, and the phrase “generational equity top” got a run.
The equal-weighted Value Line Arithmetic Index is drawing down from its August high, while the Nasdaq 100 is rallying… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
-
Silver lining in bond market carnage
Roger Montgomery
October 8, 2026
For decades, the 60/40 Balanced Portfolio was zealously and even religiously adhered to. The fixed income component was the dependable anchor, providing a steady yield, protection against stock market volatility, while allowing investors to sleep soundly at night.
More recently, bond returns have given sleeping investors a rude awakening.
U.S. analyst Ben Carlson recently highlighted this shift, pointing out that modern bondholders have endured a catastrophe, describing the market as “…the most brutal bond market in modern finance history,” adding, “It’s no wonder bonds are the most hated asset class in the world.” continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
-
The Fallacy of Composition
Roger Montgomery
October 7, 2026
In the stock market, equity analysts are typically bottom-up researchers. That means they start their analysis of an individual company with specific financial metrics and fundamentals, rather than macroeconomic trends or overall industry outlooks.
Instead of starting with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, interest rates, or sector tailwinds, a bottom-up analyst focuses on a company’s internal strengths, business model, and valuation.
A problem arises because modelling a specific company using the bottom-up approach occurs in a vacuum.
Analyst A assumes Company A will take market share away from Company B. Analyst B assumes Company B will hold its market share and grow sales by 10 per cent. Analyst C assumes Company C will benefit from lower commodity prices, while Analyst D assumes the commodity producer will raise prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
-
The runway for equities – are markets settling into a new pace?
Roger Montgomery
October 6, 2026
The narrative surrounding global equities is subtly shifting. Once dominated by momentum-driven optimism, especially for artificial intelligence (AI), today’s market discussions instead focus on structural frictions.
The most bullish equity strategist of note is U.S. researcher Edward Yardeni, whose Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO) thesis has driven his estimate for the S&P500 to reach 8,400 – 10 per cent higher than where we are today. Originally, this target was slated for the end of 2026, but now Yardeni has moved it to the middle of next year.
He notes the recalibration isn’t a reassessment of FEMO, but an acknowledgement of macro headwinds that limit immediate price to earnings (P/E) multiple expansion. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular.
-
WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
READ HERE -
MEDIA
Ausbiz – The playbook for a higher-inflation world
Roger Montgomery
October 1, 2026
I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss persistent inflation in the U.S., the impact of rising wages and services costs, and why the Federal Reserve may have limited room to ease rates. We also explored the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout, growing demand for capital and the pressure higher borrowing costs could place on hyperscalers, before discussing how private credit may fit within a higher-inflation environment. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
-
Hyperscaler cash flow mirage
Roger Montgomery
September 24, 2026
It may initially seem a stretch to claim the financial quality of your retirement beyond 2026 might depend on the outcome of some heroic assumptions about Hyperscaler artificial intelligence (AI) cash flows.
But is it?
Equity markets, and especially investors in U.S. stocks – of which there is a record number investing a record amount – are ignoring a litany of concerns. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
-
The U.S. stock market approaches October with lots to worry about
Roger Montgomery
September 22, 2026
When the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields pierced five per cent on September 14, they reached their highest level since October 2023, and signalled a potential conflict between sovereign debt realities and a relentlessly optimistic equity market. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
-
Put it on the tab
Roger Montgomery
September 17, 2026
In recent months, the chart shown in Figure 1., has been doing the rounds, inspiring fear among some observers that a stock market crash is imminent. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
-
The great Treasury swap (and why it matters)
Roger Montgomery
August 28, 2026
If you follow financial news, like I do, you might have recently heard market commentator Trevor Hall summarise Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s latest move in a single eye-opener:
“He’s buying back bonds with 1 per cent interest rates at 50 cents on the dollar and replacing them with short-term debt that currently yields 3 and ¾ per cent.”
It sounds like a paradox. Why would the U.S. government buy back debt that costs them almost nothing (1 per cent interest rates) and swap it for debt that costs almost four times as much (3.75 per cent)? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
