Global markets

In this blog post, I (finally) take the focus off the artificial intelligence (AI) boom/bubble. Instead, I want to look at whether there are other factors investors should be considering when it comes to time to rebalance portfolios, and as 2025 concludes and 2026 commences.

First – and granted this one’s a bit of fun – the Santa Claus rally. Is there any evidence that such a thing exists? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Investors must understand that correctly predicting artificial intelligence (AI) technology will change the course of humanity, even if for the better, does not automatically translate to desirable investment returns.

General Purpose Technologies (GPT) of the past, such as the automobile, electricity, commercial flight, steam locomotion and TV, have all changed the course of human history and yet more than a thousand car manufacturers have disappeared from the U.S. and none exist today that are profitable and have not been bailed out by government or private equity. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Today on Ausbiz I joined Juliette Saly to discuss why artificial intelligence (AI) remains a powerful long-term thematic but is now exhibiting classic bubble warning signs. We need to question whether the exponential share-prices, circular vendor-financing deals, and the huge capital expenditure (CapEx) that we are seeing today, are sustainable.

While AI will undoubtedly transform the world, the economics underpinning today’s spending frenzy look increasingly stretched, with key leaders unable (or unwilling) to explain how trillion-dollar commitments will be funded. In times like these, disciplined rebalancing is a smart approach.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What Nvidia could be telling us about an AI bubble continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss why cash is making a comeback – despite the rise of digital payments – and why it still plays an important role in budgeting, privacy, and accessibility. We also touched on the trillions being poured into artificial intelligence and whether those investments can truly deliver the returns investors expect.

You can listen to the full episode from 14:13 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Radio.

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• POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Radio

Not only are stock market valuations stretched, but on the metrics that are most reliable for predicting future returns, the U.S. market is at an all-time high. We can say that factually and therefore categorically.  It’s not a matter of opinion. 

It’s worth remembering to bring everything back to the data to avoid the influence of emotions. 

The important question then is not whether reducing your exposure and rebalancing portfolios results in a missed opportunity to maximise gains, but whether you’ll regret not doing that, and instead of retiring in two years, being forced to work for another six or seven. Indeed, and upon reflection, there will always be regret; the decision is about which regret is worse. Letting gains evaporate might be worse than missing out on a few more dollars.

This article was first published in The Australian on 05 November 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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While bubble definitions abound, most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.

The most straightforward definition of a bubble is asset prices climbing far above some measure of value, such as earnings, dividends, gross-value-added (GVA) or discounted cash flows. Robert Shiller’s famous CAPE ratio, which compares stock prices to long-term average earnings, and John Hussman’s market-cap-to-GVA, were designed to flag these distortions. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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Outgoing U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks have sparked debate. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference on October 14, Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) long-running quantitative tightening (QT) program – its methodical unwinding of the balance sheet bloated by pandemic-era stimulus – may be “coming into view” for an end.

While perceived as a relief for many equity investors, halting QT might not actually be the good news equities investors are hoping for. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets.

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We are in very unique times. In 1963, the late Sydney Homer published the first edition of his book A History of Interest Rates. Covering 4000 years of interest rate history, and now in its fourth edition, the book has become a classic in the fields of finance and economics. 

Nowhere in Homer’s pages however do you ever read zero interest rates.

So that is how extraordinary and abnormal the last 10 years has been. Human history has not hitherto experienced the zero interest rates we have all now experienced in the last decade or so. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3.0 per cent from 5.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, as seen in Table 1.

Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.

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• POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary, Property

continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Video Insights.

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