Editor’s Pick
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Market Correction? What to do next.
Roger Montgomery
September 12, 2016
We all know that major corrections in the stock market occur more frequently than academic models suggest and more frequently than we would like. The question of course is not ‘if’ the market will correct but ‘when’? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
Taggedalternatives, market neutral- 13 Comments
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POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Market commentaryTaggedalternatives, market neutral
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And the gold medal goes to…
Roger Montgomery
September 5, 2016
As we’ve pointed out recently, it’s getting harder and harder to find quality Australian businesses with really strong prospects. Which is why we are quite excited about Altium (ASX:ALU) and Vitagroup (ASX:VTG). Their profit results for FY16 were arguably two of the reporting season’s best.
continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like.
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Don’t ask the barber if you need a haircut
Roger Montgomery
September 5, 2016
Some analysts say you shouldn’t ask your broker whether or not to buy stocks, as they have a conflict of interest – they will always tell you to buy. So, who should you ask? Perhaps J. Kyle Bass, the man who profited handsomely from predicting the subprime mortgage meltdown. Bass is convinced China will need to devalue the renminbi, which would be bad for equities. We think it may pay to read what he says. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Through my telescope, I see a property bubble forming
Roger Montgomery
September 1, 2016
Another week, another set of entertaining quotes from the auction rooms as a fresh wave of investors bids over the reserve for a piece of Sydney real estate. Oh, yes, you gotta love asset bubbles. They produce quotes that, when told on the other side of the crash, seem so ridiculous they’re unbelievable. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Has GEM learnt lessons from ABC?
Roger Montgomery
August 26, 2016
Childcare operator, G8 Education (ASX: GEM), recently reported its first half 2016 results, and they were not inspiring. EBIT margins are deteriorating under the weight of rising wages and corporate overheads. We don’t yet see it as a repeat of the ABC Learning disaster, but we are keeping our eyes peeled. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick.
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How good a guide is guidance?
Roger Montgomery
August 22, 2016
How often have we read or heard that a listed company has missed guidance? Ahead of the upcoming 2016 reporting season, I have been thinking about whether guidance is helpful or not and have been encouraged by recent developments. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why you should stick with quality businesses
Tim Kelley
August 17, 2016
So far, 2016 hasn’t been an easy time for quality-oriented investors. If you look at returns across the ASX, low quality companies, like many in the Materials and Energy sectors, have provided stellar returns, while high quality companies have delivered comparatively boring returns. Despite this, we don’t believe it’s time to abandon quality businesses. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Is this another signal that a bubble is forming?
Roger Montgomery
August 16, 2016
From skirt lengths, to magazine covers to public protests and the rise of ant-establishment voting, signals are everywhere. And, as investors, we need to pay attention to them. Which is why the imminent sale of the long-held Soul Pattinson building in Sydney’s Pitt Street Mall caught our eye. To us, it’s yet another signal that asset prices are over-stretched. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Don’t bet on rates staying lower for longer
Roger Montgomery
August 10, 2016
Australians are getting used to super-low interest rates, and eye-watering loan amounts, particularly for property purchases. Along the way, the household debt burden as a percentage of disposable income has ballooned out from 170% to 185% since 2008. This is nosebleed territory. Is it time to be concerned? We think so. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Property.
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Stand by for a big correction in apartment prices
Roger Montgomery
August 4, 2016
Are you worried about housing affordability? Anxious that your kids can’t even get onto the property ladder, never mind climb it? Well, an oversupply of apartments, plus an increasing number of failed settlements, means all that is about to change. Cheaper apartments are on the way. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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