Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
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Index funds have to buy Telstra, but there’s little to recommend it to investors. Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
A wave of activity is emerging in the coal sector: CEO’s are making acquisitions at silly prices and analysts are forecasting straight-line growth. What is the problem with that? China is in the midst of a property bubble that is set to pop. Roger Montgomery reveals his 2012 intrinsic valuations for Macarthur Coal and Centennial Coal, but once again warns investors to be very cautious when investing in commodity businesses. Watch the interview.
Roger Montgomery joins Peter Switzer to discuss two of Australia’s most well-known retailing businesses — Harvey Norman (HVN) and JB Hi-Fi (JBH). Whilst Roger considers Gerry Harvey to be a retailing genius, Roger says JB Hi-Fi does a better job selling the same products in the same market. So is JBH a buy? What is its forecast 2012 intrinsic value? And can Terry Smart continue the market-beating success of former CEO Richard Uechtritz? Watch the interview.
I took an Anzac-weekend break from analysing companies and valuations.
It’s the 20th anniversary of the launch of the Hubble Telescope, which provided the world with new insights into life, the universe and everything. Insights are what this blog is all about, and many of you have insights that are extraordinarily valuable and worth sharing.
Around October last year I received a tip to look at Decmil and Forge. That’s all that was said; “Roger, you should have a look at Forge and Decmil”
So I did. And the rest, as they say, is history. It turned out Forge qualified as an ‘A1’ company and Decmil was right up there too. Both were trading at large discounts to their intrinsic values. That’s two from two.
Another contributor has insights into healthcare stocks, benefiting everyone who visits this blog. And a CEO or two have provided clarity about their business models and their competitive positions.
A frequent question I am asked is: “Roger, thank you for providing these insights for free…but why do you do it?”
Well, first, I want you to see that valuing companies works better. If I can demonstrate that to you, you will have some confidence in doing it yourself, of course sticking to the steps outlined in Value.able. The second reason is that Warren Buffett described himself once as 85% Ben Graham and 15% Phil Fisher. Fisher is the author of Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and liked “scuttlebutt “– insights from customers, employees and competitors. I would like to see you’re your insights published here.
If you are reading this post, let me assure you are not alone. – value investing, it seems, is much more popular in Australia than I anticipated. So instead of shooting your question or insight to me privately in an email, post it here.
If you don’t want me to publish your thought, just say so and I will refrain. When you write something, it doesn’t automatically pop up. It sits in my inbox awaiting my approval. I have to click PUBLISH before anyone will see it. If you ask me not to, I won’t.
I have been positively amazed at the insights, views, opinions and questions I have received via email and most are worthy of posting here. So don’t hold back. Click LEAVE A COMMENT at the bottom of this post.
This blog is seen by CEO’s, MD’s, CFO’s and the PR people representing some of Australia’s largest public companies, so go ahead and share your thoughts. Please refrain from defamatory or judgemental language. Remember that every time you buy a share, you are purchasing from someone who quite likely disagrees with you, so don’t worry about a difference of opinion or even the risk of being wrong. As Francis Bacon said: “truth emerges more readily from error than from confusion”. We learn more from knowing we were wrong than from never knowing.
Let me kick things off by asking a few questions. Feel free to answer any or all:
And use any of these to get our conversation going:
I hope you will take up my invitation to share your thoughts here and eagerly await commencing our dialogue. Start by clicking the LEAVE A COMMENT link just to the lower right of this post.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 27 April 2010.
In the final segment of Your Money Your Call Roger Montgomery reveals his quality and performance scores, and intrinsic valuations, for Mineral Resources Limited (MIN), Transfield Services Infrastructure Fund (TSI), Equinox Minerals (EQN), Incitec Pivot Limited (IPL) and News Corp (NWS). Watch the interview.
Roger Montgomery believes Australia has too many levels of government and discusses the impact on the health care sector. In this appearance on Your Money Your Call Roger also explains why Nufarm has been a B-class business for the past ten years and reveals his intrinsic valuations for First Australian Resources (FAR) and FKP Property Group (FKP). Watch the interview.
Roger Montgomery tells Nina May and viewers of Your Money Your Call why Woolworths is a superior business to Wesfarmers (despite the turnaround story of Coles), Platinum Asset Management (PTM) is an A2 business but expensive, Forge (FGE) and Worley Parsons (WOR) are A1s but again expensive, and whilst Fleetwood Corporation (FWD) is also an A1 yet expensive, why he still holds shares. Watch the interview.
IRESS Market Technology (IRE) is one of Roger Montgomery’s A1 businesses. So are CSL and Cochlear (COH). In his appearance on Your Money Your Call Roger shares his insights on the defensive healthcare sector, revealing valuations for Ramsay (RHC), Sonic (SHL) and Primary Healthcare (PRY), and discusses the outlook for IRE in the event of another stock exchange entering the Australian market. Watch the interview.
On Market Moves with Bridie Barry Roger Montgomery reveals his top three A1 companies. Two are trading below their intrinsic values, with the third trading close to fair value. All are top ranking in terms of stability of their balance sheet, predictability of performance, have a low chance of collapse and whose intrinsic values are rising over the next couple of years. In this interview Roger also discusses Fortescue (FMG), Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and National Australia Banks (NAB) unsuccessful takeover of AXA. Watch the interview.
Roger Montgomery tells viewers there will be interesting opportunities if the market falls 600 points, but warns even in opportune times, never invest in anything other than A-class businesses. Roger also observes the enthusiasm in Wesfarmers as a result of the turnaround in Coles, but says Woolworths (WOW) is a much better business, Caltex is a stock going nowhere for next couple of years, Santos is worth around 30% of its current share price and if you are considering Newcrest Mining, don’t. You would be better off putting your money in a term deposit. Watch the interview.
