Monthly Archives: February 2026

  • ABC Nightlife – from metals to mega caps: volatility returns to markets

    Roger Montgomery
    February 4, 2026

    Gold prices jumped as much as 20 per cent in January before falling this month, while silver, after rising 250 per cent over 13 months, dropped 20 per cent in just days, raising the question of whether the boom is over or volatility will continue. Last night on ABC Nightlife with Philip Clark, I discussed these moves alongside why markets are no longer responding logically to geopolitical headlines, as massive passive index flows and belief in US exceptionalism keep equities elevated. I also explained how index investing has driven extreme concentration in mega-cap tech stocks and why that dominance is now starting to unwind as investors reassess who will truly benefit from artificial intelligence (AI). 

    Tune into the segment from 07:12 here: ABC Nightlife

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    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

  • Not so comfortable in luxury

    Roger Montgomery
    February 4, 2026

    It has struck me as curious that one of the sectors of the global market that was hit after the pandemic lockdowns were lifted but has generally failed to recover, is luxury retail. 

    I have long believed that many prestige brands, such as Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Prada, and Ralph Lauren, are now so common on street corners and in shopping centres and malls that they verge on being more mass-market than exclusive, more masstige than prestige. One questions how much longer they can sustain their high margins if consumers become unwilling to pay ever-increasing prices for items that can be bought just about anywhere. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary.

  • Fear + Greed Podcast – The bull and bear cases for equities in 2026

    Roger Montgomery
    February 3, 2026

    I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear and Greed to look back at some of the key themes that shaped markets in 2025, including the hype surrounding in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and the growing case for small caps. We also talked about the rise in gold and silver as the U.S. dollar weakened, and what those moves could signal for investors.

    We then looked ahead to 2026, discussing why markets may become more volatile and how diversification into assets uncorrelated to traditional markets could help support portfolios. We covered Digital Asset Funds Management’s Digital Income Fund and how its digital arbitrage strategy aims to benefit from market volatility, and explored how Aura’s Private Credit Income Fund can provide income and returns with no correlation to sharemarkets.

    You can listen to the episode on Fear and Greed here: The bull and bear cases for equities in 2026.

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    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

  • February 2026 reporting season calendar

    Roger Montgomery
    February 2, 2026

    As the February 2026 reporting season gets underway, attention turns once again to earnings as ASX-listed companies begin releasing their results. This period often brings heightened market activity, with share prices reacting swiftly to earnings surprises, guidance updates and outlook commentary.

    The last two reporting seasons have brought increased volatility and, as a result, significant opportunities. With many companies reluctant to provide guidance amid an unstable geopolitical environment, the prospect of earnings surprises this reporting season is more pronounced. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

  • Playing with fire

    Roger Montgomery
    February 2, 2026

    Interest rates act like gravity on the value of all assets. The lower the rate, the weaker the gravitational force, allowing asset prices to float higher. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has cut 175 basis points since the current rate-cutting cycle began on September 18, 2024. Since that time, the U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P500, has risen 22.4 per cent.

    As important as interest rates are for asset values, they are perhaps even more important to sentiment, when investors believe they are set based on economic data rather than the whims of politicians – whose own agendas may seek to destroy the benefits of monetary policy when driven by an independent central bank. Continue…

    by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.