Monthly Archives: December 2014

Like many things in financial markets, exchange rate movements are very difficult to predict. At Montgomery, we don’t claim to possess unique insight into future exchange rates, and so they typically don’t play much of a role in our investment process.

Having said that, in recent years it has seemed to us – as well as many others, including Glenn Stevens – that the $A was at levels that would be difficult to sustain long term, and in structuring our portfolios we have tended to look a little more kindly on high quality businesses that generate significant revenues offshore. Continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.

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As you know we cannot predict where share prices are going next week, next month or next quarter. Valuing a business is simply not the same as predicting its price. What we do know however, is that over the long run, the price of a company’s shares will follow the economic performance of that business. ARB fell 40 per cent or more during the GFC, but its shares have increased almost four-fold over eleven or twelve years. It’s a similar story for CBA. Its shares also slumped during the GFC, but step back and the true picture of performance appears. Our estimate of CBA’s intrinsic value and the company’s share price have tripled over a decade. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.

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A key requirement to generating long-term returns is minimising losses, or what we like to call avoiding the landmines. As the latest results demonstrate, The Montgomery Fund has done a superb job at navigating the minefield that was 2014.

There was a clear divergence in the sectoral performances of the S&P/ASX 200 in 2014. Let’s first examine the sectors that are trading below the levels from the start of the year. Continue…

by Ben MacNevin Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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Upmarket furniture seller Nick Scali (ASX: NCK) had an excellent financial year in 2014 with its success seemingly continuing into FY15. I’ve made a few notes on their outlook, whilst reading through the Chairman & Managing Director’s 2014 AGM addresses, which you can read in full here. Continue…

by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Value.able.

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There have been volatile times recently on the ASX. With prices for oil, iron ore and coal falling sharply, the mood in the resources sector has turned decidedly sour. Further, the negative mood seems to have been adopted more broadly by the market, with a wide range of stocks showing meaningful price declines. Continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation, Value.able.

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In the past few months, we have noted that retailing – among other sectors that make up the Australian economy – slowed dramatically in the June quarter of 2014. The September quarter reports from many companies over AGM season saw a continuation of that trend.

Further to our recent observations, Australia GDP just printed at 0.3 per cent for the September quarter. By contrast, 0.5 per cent for the June quarter 2014, confirms that economic growth is waning in Australia and the RBA might be forced to cut rates further. Continue…

by Russell Muldoon Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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In this newsletter, Roger talks about what you should be watching out for in 2015 and what to expect with property prices, index funds and shares. Read here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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I recently attended TPG Telecom Limited’s Annual General Meeting in Macquarie Park. Below is an ‘over-the-shoulder’ view of my notes which you may find useful. Continue…

by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this interview, Roger Montgomery speaks to ABC Nightlife’s Tony Delroy as they discuss the financial highs and lows. Particularly, the decline in the price for resources and the material impact on the Australian economy. Listen here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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