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Why Private Debt may be superior to bonds
Roger Montgomery
March 3, 2023
Looking for a higher rate of income? Who isn’t? But are bonds best? For decades investors have been told bonds provide uncorrelated ‘ballast’ for a portfolio of shares whilst generating much-needed regular income. The idea has been that shares offer growth, with bonds also offering diversification and stability. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick.
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A tough road ahead for consumer discretionary businesses
David Buckland
March 2, 2023
In late-2022 Australian household deposits were $175 billion above trend, and this “extra cash” was largely in the hands of the 65+ years of age cohort. After many years of financial repression, these older Australians will enjoy earning a more reasonable return on their spare cash. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Don’t bet on a U.S. recession in 2023
Roger Montgomery
March 1, 2023
After a 4.65 per cent increase in interest rates this past year, why isn’t the U.S. economy tanking? And why aren’t retail sales plummeting? One reason, perhaps, is that during the pandemic, many home buyers locked in fixed-rate 30-year mortgages at ultra-low rates, and they are thus unaffected by recent rate rises. If I’m right, the U.S. economy might avoid a recession in 2023. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Why you shouldn’t worry about ‘what comes next’
Roger Montgomery
February 28, 2023
Lately, I’ve seen a number of media reports pondering if world economies – and equity markets – are headed for a soft, hard or no landing. To me, this kind of talk is a bit of a distraction. Because, as a long-term investor, the objective is still the same: to buy quality companies at good prices. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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For travel stocks, it’s up, up and away
Roger Montgomery
February 27, 2023
If you’ve travelled lately and felt stung by the big increases in airfares and accommodation prices, you might think about ‘revenge investing’ in some travel companies. Because, since the post-pandemic re-opening, many – like Flight Centre and Qantas – have seen a big increase in patronage, profits and share price. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like, Tourism.
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Just how bad will the consumption slowdown be?
David Buckland
February 27, 2023
Continuing to explore the breadth of the expected slowdown in consumption, granular analysis of the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) monthly deposits and the RBA’s October 2022 Financial Stability Review, the following data is worth highlighting. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 24 February 2023
Brett Craig
February 24, 2023
Given this week’s quiet data release cycle, we thought we would explore some methods of funding that can be used by lenders we work with and to give context to where we participate in capital markets. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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History doesn’t repeat, but maybe it rhymes
Roger Montgomery
February 24, 2023
In this week’s video insight Roger shares reasons to be optimistic about investing in equities and current market conditions. Despite all the doom and gloom surrounding markets at the moment, what matters more than anything else is inflation. Inflation hurts stocks overall because consumer spending drops and corporate profits are impacted by higher input costs. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.
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