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Unmasking the ‘mortgage cliff’: Are recession fears overblown?
Roger Montgomery
June 26, 2023
With all the talk of recession, we’ve been exploring its probability. As investors, it’s vital to understand which sectors and individual companies are most and least impacted. And helping in that task is appreciating the consumer’s important canary-in-the-coal-mine role. A consumer’s financial position will ultimately determine their propensity to spend on discretionary items and their ability to meet non-discretionary expenses such as utilities and the mortgage, so it is worth understanding each data point. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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- POSTED IN Market commentary.
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The Bank of England steps up its fight against inflation with its 13th interest rate hike – raising rates to 5.0 per cent
David Buckland
June 23, 2023
Last night, the Bank of England (BoE) raised its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point to 5.0 per cent, the highest level in 15 years. When it comes to inflation, Britain remains an outlier compared with other major economies, with consumer prices rising 8.7 per cent in May 2023, four times the BOE’s 2 per cent target and more than double the rate in the U.S. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets.
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- POSTED IN Global markets.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz: Unmasking the Mortgage Cliff
Roger Montgomery
June 23, 2023
I joined Ausbiz to discuss how high inflation and global recession fears are impacting markets and the economy. I also share my perspective on the potential mortgage cliff for Australians and explain how aggregate numbers can sometimes conceal individual-level issues, and that marginal consumers often dictate the outlook for firms and their performance. Watch the interview: Unmasking the mortgage cliff
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, TV Appearances.
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- POSTED IN Editor's Pick, TV Appearances.
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Beyond fundamentals: Outlook on digital payments
Polen Capital
June 23, 2023
In this video Dan Davidowitz, Portfolio Manager and Analyst for Polen’s Focus Growth strategy, shares his insights on the often-misunderstood world of digital payments. Can the Visa and MasterCard duopoly be disrupted? Continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Companies, Polen Capital, Stocks We Like, Video Insights.
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Evidence of our predicted retail slowdown is mounting
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2023
Over the course of the last twelve months, we have warned investors off consumer discretionary stocks, consistent with the positioning of our domestic equity funds and the posture of Brett Craig’s private credit funds, which have also been eschewing extending credit to the sector. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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- POSTED IN Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Avita Medical’s medium-term prospects getting better
David Buckland
June 21, 2023
Avita Medical’s (ASX:AVH) RECELL System was first approved in the U.S. for the treatment of severe burns in 2018 and prepares, produces, and delivers a regenerative cell suspension, Spray-On Skin Cells, using a small amount of a patient’s own skin. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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- POSTED IN Companies, Stocks We Like.
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Why is the S&P 500 rallying amidst uncertain times?
Roger Montgomery
June 20, 2023
While our predicted 2023 stock market rally appears robust at first glance, the reality reveals a different story. Initially, pessimists expected the aggressive series of interest rate hikes in 2022 to have significant consequences. Consensus the U.S. faces a recession, led many to predict a decline in stock values. However, contrary to these expectations, the U.S. economy has continued to grow, and the S&P 500 Index, which influences global investor sentiment, has risen by over 15.3 per cent this year. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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- POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Adairs – real estate turnover AND slowing consumption
Roger Montgomery
June 17, 2023
The Australian homewares retailer Adairs Limited (ASX:ADH), is currently confronting the forces associated with a slowdown in foot traffic at its stores and a decline in online traffic due to declining consumption and falling turnover in residential real estate. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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- POSTED IN Companies, Consumer discretionary.
