Italy’s major national shutdown and lockdown isolation measures taken on 9 March and March 11, some 14-16 days ago, may now be showing up as lower case numbers.  The timeline appears to fit the proposed initial two week quarantine period suggested for potential COVID-19 cases. Continue…

by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.

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by Roger Montgomery's Team Posted in Old Content.

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by Roger Montgomery's Team Posted in Old Content.

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In our third update tracking COVID-19 testing data, NSW Health started reporting data on 25 January. The data released regularly reported case epidemiology, with a high trace rate, as well as good data on disease incidence by age cohort. NSW Health also appeared to have started early with a testing plan, and we note that when that testing regime scored a hit, testing volumes jumped, and kept ramping. Continue…

by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.

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There have been seven bear markets since the early 1970s. That’s an average of one every seven years.  Five of the bear markets, being 1974-75, the early 1980s, the early 1990s, the early 2000s, and the GFC from late 2007 until early 2009, all took approximately eighteen months to play out and all lost approximately 50 per cent from peak to trough. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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We have been tracking COVID-19 testing data, rather than just cases alone and understanding how testing might give us some early insight on the preparedness of governments, and also to the dynamism of their response upon realising that a COVID-19 problem exists. Governments, if prepared, would want to utilise the ability to test as an early warning system first. We looked for consistent testing data and can update you on in Italy (IT), UK,  and the US. Continue…

by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.

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Here at Montgomery we have been tracking COVID-19 testing data, rather than just cases alone. Our logic is that testing drives cases, and that case growth would drive markets.  So understanding testing might give us some early insight as to the likely preparedness of governments, and also to the dynamism of their response upon realising that a COVID-19 problem exists. Continue…

by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.

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