Back in February in our blog article Disinflation’s Bumpy Road we wrote: “With valuations now appreciably higher than at the beginning of 2023 and 2024, and now arguably stretched in parts of the market – particularly in high-growth tech – investors had been counting on rate cuts to justify further gains. But if the Fed remains on hold, or worse, if markets begin to price in a “higher for longer” scenario, equity risk premiums might have to adjust.”

The ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) appear to be rolling in neutral gear, with an observable slowing in earnings growth. To be clear, earnings are still growing but the rate of growth is slowing down. So what does this all mean? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.

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It hasn’t been widely reported (which could, of course, mean I am about to repeat the common mistake of reading too much into a central banker’s utterances), but earlier in March, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, dropped a subtle remark that may shed light on the central bank’s mindset. As the Federal Reserve heads into its meeting this week, Powell’s words may also carry weight for the unpredictable economic road ahead. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the three key influences of market performance – inflation, economic growth, and liquidity – and how they can adversely or positively affect the market. In January and February this year we have already seen; the launch of a Chinese LLM (Large Language Model) which created waves in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) space, Trump’s imposition of tariffs (across China, Canada, Mexio and Europe), rising inflation, and increased geopolitical tension. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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I joined Hope Radio to share my top tips for investing success at every stage of life. Risk appetite tends to lessen the older we get. Despite this, a balanced approach to risk versus reward is imperative at any age. The older generation shouldn’t shy away from risk all together but instead assess the potential outcomes carefully to maximise their potential rewards. And younger people can take advantage of the ‘bounce-back’ factor. Meaning they have a longer ‘runway’ and can afford to take more risk before their large financial commitments like starting a family or having a mortgage come along. 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined James Kirby on The Australian’s The Money Puzzle to discuss the declining momentum in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, Trump’s recent tariffs, and recession indicators. To set the stage for positive market performance a combination of disinflation, positive economic growth, and central bank liquidity is required. With the imposed Trump tariffs, the buzz around AI waning, and a decline in liquidity – has confidence in positive market performance for 2025 dampened?

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Podcast Channel.

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It’s been a record run for stocks. The past two years delivered historic returns for global and U.S. stocks. Indeed, the 24- months ending 31 December 2024 ranks as one of the top 10 two-year periods since the middle of last century. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market commentary.

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Electric vehicles (EVs) have been hailed as the future of transportation – promising a cleaner and greener alternative to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Governments worldwide have pushed EV adoption through subsidies, tax credits, and ambitious targets, while car manufacturers have invested billions to electrify their fleets. However, announcements from major automakers, as well as recent data and surveys in the U.S., Australia, and Europe, suggest EVs may not be the wisest purchase for consumers today. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Manufacturing.

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The front-of-mind topic for investors, now that reporting season is over, is what Trump’s trade wars and tariffs, the potential of an end to AI-related stock leadership, and general volatility mean for the stock market’s outlook. Today we touch on one of the bullish arguments I came across in my readings. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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