While the U.S. presidential campaign is entertaining to watch from afar (and more than a little disturbing this time around), spare a thought for our friends in the U.S. who have to sort through the rhetoric, lies, and assassination attempts to select their leader for the next four years.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.

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In my recent article for Firstlinks, I explore the rising concerns about a potential market correction. Since 2022, I’ve been optimistic about stocks rising despite recession fears and increasing interest rates, based on expectations of positive economic growth and disinflation. Disinflation has historically benefited innovative companies with pricing power. However, investors like Ruffer LLP and Mark Spitznagel now warn of a severe market crash due to shrinking U.S. liquidity. While their warnings merit attention, I believe that positive growth and slowing inflation will continue to support innovative growth companies. Read the full article here for my full insights: What to do about the growing chorus of market correction warnings? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, On the Internet.

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The U.S. consumer is experiencing conditions similar to ours. Indeed globally, consumers are now displaying the impact of inflation and the lagged effect of higher interest rates. These are beginning to bite and this is being reflected in consumer purchasing behaviour. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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My prediction, for what it is worth, remains that small-caps should outperform their large-cap brethren, and conditions appear supportive for the share prices of innovative companies with pricing power and growth until the beginning of 2026. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The Aura Private Credit Income Fund (previously known as the Aura High Yield SME Fund) is celebrating its 7th anniversary today, 1 August 2024. We are delighted by the Fund’s performance since its inception.  Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Aura Group.

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Today Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) delivered its first half calendar year 2024 results (1HCY24). The results were largely in line, with an underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of US$5.75 billion within one per cent of consensus estimates and driven predominantly by Rio Tinto’s copper and aluminium divisions. Both net debt and free cash flow were also in line with expectations.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.

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Over the past 17 years, Chinese economic growth has decelerated from an approximate average annual 10 per cent to sub 5 per cent, whilst the Shanghai Composite Index has halved to under 2,900 points. Pressure on the Chinese residential property market and China’s ten-year bond yield at 2.1 per cent has been well highlighted, whilst the slowdown in sales from many big brand businesses is pointing to a deflationary environment, yet to be fully reflected in the iron-ore price.   Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets.

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With 41 per cent of S&P 500 companies having reported their actual results as of Friday, the tally so far appears to be more optimistic than anticipated. Here’s a breakdown of the scorecard so far, as presented by Factset. 

The earnings season has kicked off with a robust start:  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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