The father of a field of mathematics known as fractal geometry, Benoit Mandelbrot, in his fantastic book, The (Mis)behaviour of Markets, observed that market price movements, unlike the smooth curves assumed in traditional financial models, are jagged and irregular, meaning that large price swings are more frequent than expected, and periods of high volatility can be followed by more high volatility. His work provides a more realistic framework for understanding and modeling risk, noting also that volatility in markets tends to cluster.

In my experience, I’ve observed those volatility clusters often mark turning points in markets. To be clear, not all periods of heightened volatility are turning points, but almost all turning points are accompanied by greater volatility. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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U.S. Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, and Professor Geoffrey Hinton – considered the ‘Godfather of AI’ – pointed out last week at Georgetown University that artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics aren’t inherently bad, but the people pushing this technology revolution are the richest people in the world. They suggest that Musk and Bezos, for example, aren’t staying up at night worrying about ordinary people. They aren’t worrying about working people. They’re not spending hundreds of billions of dollars to extend life expectancy, address global warming, shorten the workweek, and guarantee high-quality health care. They simply want more wealth and more power. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Angus Randall and Julia Bergin from ABC The world to discuss why, despite artificial intelligence’s (AI’s) enormous long-term promise, early investors often face the highest risks. History shows that major technology advancements usually go through a boom–bust cycle, which is why caution – not blind optimism – is essential right now.

Catch the segment here: Calls to boost Australian investment in AI. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In this final part of my two-part series on General Purpose Technology (GPT) booms, I explain how these cycles typically end. History shows that even world-changing technologies – from cars to commercial flight –  delivered poor outcomes for most early investors. This is because technology trends eventually run into the reality that customers don’t spend money in a straight line (their demand rises and falls), and also the concept of “creative destruction” (wherein new technology leads to the obsolescence of outdated products). These cycles are exactly why it’s important to diversify and regularly rebalance your portfolio. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, Video Insights.

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Wall Street on Thursday experienced a stunning reversal in sentiment. Impressive results from the company spearheading the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, Nvidia (NVDA), and a strong September jobs report initially drove the Nasdaq up more than two per cent.

On Wednesday, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang had described demand for its Blackwell chips as “off the charts”, and dismissed fears of an AI bubble on the company’s earnings call.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, meaning the labour market was in better shape than previously thought. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) delivered its full-year 2025 (FY25) results on 6 November, posting cash earnings of $7.091 billion – essentially flat on FY24 and a touch below the market’s $7.18 billion consensus.

The share price sold off about two per cent on the day, and we believe the relatively soft trading since is due to investors focusing on two things:

1. Higher-than-expected loan impairment charges (up 14 per cent to A$833 million), driven mainly by missed payments, a handful of individual business banking exposures and some unsecured retail lending stress, and
2. Relatively flat earnings and final dividend 85 cents per share, bringing the full-year dividend per share (DPS) up one cent to 170 cents, fully franked.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services.

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NVIDIA delivered another blowout quarter (Q3 2025 – ended 26 October, 2025 – released 19 November, 2025), significantly beating Wall Street expectations, and for some, partially alleviating (perhaps only temporarily) concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Demand for AI infrastructure remains extremely strong, with the new Blackwell graphic processing unit (GPU) architecture powering Nvidia’s latest high-performance chips for AI and Data Centres ramping faster than anticipated. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Phil Clark on Nightlife to explain why the market’s sharp fall may reflect growing doubts about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. I argued that while AI is a powerful General Purpose Technology (GPT) that may change the world (like cars or the internet), it might not be as lucrative as investors hope. Today we’re seeing super-charged share prices, huge data-centre spending, complex vendor-financing deals and big losses at firms like OpenAI. Whether this proves a correction or a bust is unknowable, so my message to investors was simple: regularly rebalance and diversify beyond the AI winners.

Tune into the full episode from 4:49 here: ABC Nightlife Finance 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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