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I joined Angus Randall and Julia Bergin from ABC The world to discuss why, despite artificial intelligence’s (AI’s) enormous long-term promise, early investors often face the highest risks. History shows that major technology advancements usually go through a boom–bust cycle, which is why caution – not blind optimism – is essential right now.

Catch the segment here: Calls to boost Australian investment in AI. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Phil Clark on Nightlife to explain why the market’s sharp fall may reflect growing doubts about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. I argued that while AI is a powerful General Purpose Technology (GPT) that may change the world (like cars or the internet), it might not be as lucrative as investors hope. Today we’re seeing super-charged share prices, huge data-centre spending, complex vendor-financing deals and big losses at firms like OpenAI. Whether this proves a correction or a bust is unknowable, so my message to investors was simple: regularly rebalance and diversify beyond the AI winners.

Tune into the full episode from 4:49 here: ABC Nightlife Finance 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss why cash is making a comeback – despite the rise of digital payments – and why it still plays an important role in budgeting, privacy, and accessibility. We also touched on the trillions being poured into artificial intelligence and whether those investments can truly deliver the returns investors expect.

You can listen to the full episode from 14:13 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings.  continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Radio.

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Yesterday I joined Jess Maguire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to discuss the sharp fall in Meta’s share price after it revealed another huge increase in artificial intelligence (AI) spending. I explained that while Mark Zuckerberg insists the investment will eventually pay off, the scale of AI infrastructure costs – potentially US$3–5 trillion by 2030 – means companies will need extraordinary revenues to justify the outlay. History shows transformative technologies often enrich consumers more than investors, and while today’s firms are profitable – unlike in 1999 – the “build-now, profit-later” mentality risks colliding with commercial reality.

Catch the full episode from 1:43:29 ABC Statewide Drive here.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss how markets remain strong but expensive, with investors shifting from artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to safer sectors like healthcare and utilities. Despite record highs, valuations suggest future returns may be lower. I explained that while a correction isn’t inevitable, there are promising opportunities in smaller, innovative companies that are starting to outperform larger ones.

You can listen to the full episode from 39:45 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife yesterday to discuss what’s driving today’s market. Falling inflation, steady growth, and record central-bank liquidity continue to fuel this bull run. But with artificial intelligence (AI) spending soaring, returns need to justify valuations. We also discussed the rising demand for gold, with many investors viewing it as a hedge against uncertainty. Although physical gold might be nice to look at, exchange-traded options may offer more efficient exposure for investors.

Perhaps considering alternative asset classes that are uncorrelated to public markets such as private credit or arbitrage strategies may help to manage risk in these uncertain times. You can listen to the full episode here: Nightlife Finance with Roger Montgomery. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Radio.

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Yesterday on ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed how Australia’s rising unemployment rate has lifted the odds of an interest rate cut – a move that could support valuations even as the economy softens. I explained why investors shouldn’t react to monthly data but instead stay focused on quality businesses and consider diversifying into alternatives like private credit or arbitrage funds to stay balanced in a volatile market.

Listen in from 1:48:17 on ABC Statewide Drive.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings yesterday to discuss how everyday items can shed light on global economics. I explained “doughnut economics,” which looks at balancing human needs with environmental limits, and compared it with purchasing power tools like the Big Mac and Mars Bar Indexes. These offer a quick look at currency values and living costs but are they too simple to capture the full picture?

Listen in from 37:07 on ABC Newcastle Mornings. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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Yesterday I joined Jess McGuire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to talk about the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and what it means for investors. While AI may well transform industries and benefit consumers, I cautioned that the rush into AI stocks has pushed valuations to bubble-like levels, where prices assume every company will succeed – something history tells us is impossible. High valuations typically mean lower future returns, and right now U.S. stocks are at record high prices. For investors, particularly those nearing retirement, my advice was simple: regularly rebalance portfolios by trimming back exposure to overheated assets and reallocating to alternatives such as private credit, small company funds, or cash — rather than panic selling — to stay defensive while still positioned for long-term growth. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Paul Turton today on ABC Newcastle to discuss why the market is demonstrating new highs despite the fear and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events, the rising risk of stagflation, and the growing threat to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence.

It appears the persistent rise in the S&P 500 is reflective of the collective excitement and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). According to sources like Gartner and Deloitte, it is expected that AI global spend will hit the US$1.5 trillion mark in the near future. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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