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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss how Middle East tensions and fuel shortages could impact markets, noting that while a large share of oil supply is at risk, prices have been more contained than in past crises. I highlighted that the key risk is how long the conflict lasts, with a prolonged disruption likely to put pressure on growth, drive up costs and weigh on sentiment.

Listen to the segment from 33:06 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive last week to unpack what a recession really means and whether Australia is already experiencing one on a per-capita basis. I highlighted how rising interest rates, energy costs and government policy pressures are squeezing households, while strong migration is masking weaker individual economic conditions, and warned that without structural reform Australia risks drifting into stagflation, where growth slows but inflation remains elevated. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Philip Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the shift toward a more volatile market environment in 2026. With inflation likely rising again, growth slowing and oil prices climbing, the key conditions that supported recent equity gains are fading. We also explored potential war scenarios involving Iran and how they could impact markets, inflation and interest rates.

Given this backdrop, I highlighted the need to rethink portfolio construction, with private credit emerging as a potential alternative offering attractive income with lower volatility. We also touched on rising fuel costs, price pressures on consumers, and broader structural challenges in Australia’s economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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This morning on ABC Newcastle Mornings with Paul Turton, I discussed how markets respond to geopolitical shocks and why investors should keep their focus on underlying fundamentals. While conflicts can cause short-term volatility, history shows markets often recover as investors anticipate recovery spending and economic growth.

Beyond the headlines, markets are still grappling with elevated valuations, the potential disruption from artificial intelligence, and weaker economic signals such as the recent U.S. jobs report. I also noted that prolonged conflict could lift the cost of oil, fertiliser, plastics and energy, which can flow through to higher prices across the broader economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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Yesterday afternoon I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how the conflict in the Middle East is affecting global markets. While headlines have focused on oil and petrol prices, we also discussed the potential impact on industries such as airlines, tourism and energy-intensive manufacturing. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the recent volatility in global markets, driven by U.S. tariffs, political uncertainty and rapid developments in artificial intelligence (AI). I explained that because the U.S. represents around 30 to 40 per cent of global market capitalisation, what happens there inevitably affects Australia, and heightened uncertainty is making investors less willing to pay elevated valuations. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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This week on ABC Statewide Drive, I spoke about how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping sharemarkets, prompting investors to reassess which business models are likely to benefit and which may face disruption.

Major technological shifts tend to reshape markets in unpredictable ways. In times like these, broad diversification and exposure to strategies that are uncorrelated to markets may help build more resilient portfolios. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Mornings to discuss how AI is evolving beyond simple prompts into autonomous agents that can act on our behalf, but warned that market expectations may be getting ahead of reality. With trillions set to be spent on infrastructure, current valuations imply adoption levels that look ambitious, raising the risk of overcapacity and corrections, particularly as AI begins to disrupt the software as a service model and pressure established data and information providers.

Listen from 36:40 here: ABC Newcastle Mornings

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

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On statewide drive with Jess Maguire, I explained that recent market volatility reflects investors reassessing some big assumptions, particularly after Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair.

Many investors had been expecting lower U.S. interest rates, so the nomination caught markets off guard and forced a reversal of those bets. That led to sharp falls in gold and silver, higher bond yields, and weaker share prices. While precious metals may recover over time, I see the bigger influence on sharemarkets as the gradual unwinding of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. For Australia, stronger U.S. growth can support some companies, but persistent inflation risks and policy uncertainty mean investors are becoming more cautious and re-evaluating risk.

Listen from 1:44:55 here: ABC Statewide Drive. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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