Market Valuation
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A 2012 Report Card
Tim Kelley
December 20, 2012
At this time of year, many of us are inclined to take stock of highlights and lowlights of the year gone by, and perhaps to consider what we might wish for the year ahead. Accordingly, we thought it might be interesting to look at the best and worst performing ASX stocks during the past 12 months, and see what sort of story they tell.
The list below sets out the top performers according to Bloomberg. We have limited the analysis to stocks with a market capitalization of at least $200m.
continue…by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, Value.able.
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What are Roger Montgomery’s insights into value in the current market?
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2012
Do Maxitrans (MXI), QBE (QBE), ARBE Corporation (ARP), Cobar Consolidated (CCU), IOOF (IFL), Seek (SEK), Fleetwood (FWD), Adelaide Brighton (ABC), NIDO Petroleum (NDO), Boral (BLD), Cardno (CDD), Jumbo Interactive (JIN) or Coca Cola Amatil (CCA) achieve the coveted A1 grade? Watch this edition of Sky Business’ Your Money Your Call 21 November 2012 program now to find out, and also learn Roger’s insights into value in the current market in resource stocks. Watch here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Investing Education, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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Is Telstra in love with Ten?
Roger Montgomery
November 16, 2012
With the Ten share price up 5% today we reckon some participants must be trading on rumours. In this case, rumours are swirling around the market that Telstra is about to buy Ten. We don’t of course trade in rumours and we won’t be starting now. We are keen however to watch Telstra’s content strategy roll out – in anticipation of the NBN being completed. As we have previously mentioned, by 2017 Telstra will likely dominate the digital delivery of content. The delivery platform will have been levelled and so the competitive focus for Telstra needs to be content. They’ll knock on your door with a big black box and bundled deal offering IPTV, Foxtel, FoxSports and (Ten?) all on the one platform for one great price….
So could Ten be part of that strategy? As is always the case with rumours, time will tell.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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What are David Buckland’s insights into Small Cap Mining stocks?
Roger Montgomery
November 6, 2012
Do Imdex (IMD), Sundance Resources (SDL), Woodside (WPL), Axiom Mining (AVQ), Seven West Media (SWM), Silverlake Resources (SLR), Mesoblast (MSB), Titan Energy (TTE) , Metcash (MTS), Emeco (EHL) or Magellan (MFG) achieve the coveted A1 grade? Watch this edition of Sky Business’ Your Money Your Call 6 November 2012 program now to find out, and also discover how David approaches investing in small cap mining stocks. Watch here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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It’s a Tasty,Tempting Mix
Roger Montgomery
November 1, 2012
In his Money Magazine November 2012 article, Roger highlights the ongoing competitive advantage of Breville Group (BRG). Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market Valuation, On the Internet.
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Go against the flow and thrive
Roger Montgomery
October 27, 2012
In this Australian article published 27 October 2012 Roger discusses how behaving counterintuitively may result in better performance for your portfolio. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation.
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Gunns collapse. If only they’d been Skaffold members!
Roger Montgomery
September 29, 2012
Chalk up another win for Skaffold members.
Substantial capital losses are difficult to make back and irrespective of whether you are still in accumulation mode, retiring or retired it is essential to avoid major losses. One way to do this of course is to diversify and ensure that losses are mitigated through position sizing. Another technique and the one we will discuss here, is to simply avoid the companies most likely to collapse.
This week Gunns (ASX:GNS), was placed into voluntary administration and happily for Skaffold members it is unlikely that anyone owned shares.
Gunn’s was never investment grade. Anyone who purchased the stock from 2003 onwards were taking a massive risk and Skaffold can explain why.
Skaffold’s Verdict (Figure. 1) is a picture of danger.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, Skaffold, Value.able.
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Overnight Wednesday in Europe
David Buckland
September 28, 2012
After jumping nearly 20% over the September 2012 Quarter, Wednesday saw the leading 50 European blue chip stocks from 12 Eurozone countries, as measured by the STOXX, decline by 2.7%. The Spanish market, which had rebounded 35% from its low point in early July, fell 3.9%. On Thursday, Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy announced his fifth austerity package in nine months of Government. The target is to cut the budget deficit from 6.3 percent in 2012 to 4.5 percent in 2013.
Economists responded by saying “they’ve increased the taxes for next year and cut spending but they didn’t change the growth forecast”. Economists expect the Spanish economy to contract around 1.5%, while the Government is forecasting a contraction of only 0.5%. With their ten year bonds selling above 6%, Spain will likely need to raise the white flag and go “cap in hand” to the European Central Bank for another bail-out. Spain’s declining property market and 25% unemployment is causing a significant solvency issues for their banking system, as the contraction of private sector lending continues.
continue…by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, Value.able.
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US influence on Aussie market waning. For how long?
Roger Montgomery
September 22, 2012
Recently the media cottoned onto the fact that the Australian stock market, as measured by the major indices, has not kept pace with the US market, which is now hitting all time highs (on a total return basis). You can see from Chart 1 that the US market is most certainly outperforming the Aussie market and it seems all the ‘Go Australia’ cries are falling on deaf ears. Indeed, Australia really needs to be shouting ‘Go China’ but more on that in a minute. Since June 2011 the US market has been pulling away. The reports did not go on to explain the reason for the divergence however we have previously explained that with credit growth virtually non existent the banks would not be able to justify sustained substantial gains and with our thesis on iron ore calling for much lower prices, we couldn’t see how the big material stocks were going to rise. Combined the banks and materials stocks account for a significant portion of the index weighting and without those sectors running, there is no way the All Ords can. We also think China has a little to do with it all.
Chart 1
Take a look at Chart 2, which plots the Aussie market against the Chinese Shanghai index. Since about the same time last year, the Chinese market has been falling and given that are large part of our economy is tied to the fortunes of China, it makes sense that the prices of those companies with direct (and indirect through consumer sentiment) exposure and a significant weighting to the index locally, would have an adverse influence on the Australian market.
What is also clear is that our strong Australian dollar is not reflecting foreign demand for our shares. And what does that tell you?
Chart 2
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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It’s a Bear Trap! Be fearful when others are greedy
Roger Montgomery
September 17, 2012
Its no news we have been warning investors about the risk of declining iron ore prices since late calendar 2011. Most recently we have been warning of a bear trap – the risk associated with buying stocks when they appear to be ‘cheap’ because they have fallen a long way but poor fundamentals are likely to see prices even lower.
Figure 1 outlines how The Montgomery Funds have been thinking about China, Iron Ore and our big miners.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
