Market Valuation
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Rollercoaster, but reasonable longer-term
Russell Muldoon
October 8, 2015
The one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P/ASX 200 Index has been on a rollercoaster recently. We would like to try to put a framework around the market movements to more-broadly understand the thinking around the volatility. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Branding: A debate; is it really a competitive advantage?
Scott Shuttleworth
September 14, 2015
Let’s define the term ‘competitive advantage’, what does it mean? There’s unfortunately many definitions, confusing a vital tenant of investment theory. Bruce Greenwald of Columbia University defines it as “being able to do what rivals cannot.” We can extend on this in such a way to suggest that having a competitive advantage will enable a firm to earn abnormally high returns.
Interestingly, competitive advantages when defined in this light, can both be thought of as the same as barriers to entry. continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market Valuation.
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How are we reacting to difficult markets?
Tim Kelley
August 25, 2015
It has been an interesting few weeks in global equity markets. In Australia, as in other countries, we have seen some violent swings in equity prices, with most of the swings being in a generally downward direction. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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The Signs Of Market Tops
Russell Muldoon
April 25, 2015
Variant Perception, a US based research firm has published a thematic report on “understanding market tops” which we found interesting. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Don’t yield to income!
Russell Muldoon
March 12, 2015
In recent times the market has been captivated by the ‘chase for yield.’ This phrase simply represents the symptom of the repressive money printing acting on interest rates globally. As a result of these low interest rates, funds are being ripped out of the safety of cash and poured into riskier assets in the pursuit of higher returns. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Will the market boom or bust in 2015?
Roger Montgomery
March 6, 2015
The answer to that question will be known in a few short months. We already have some pretty good indications that validate our optimism. But some equally solid arguments can be mounted that validate our caution.
Roger Montgomery is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Montgomery Investment Management. To invest with Montgomery, find out more.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation, Whitepapers.
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Does the market offer value?
Tim Kelley
March 4, 2015
Over the long haul, the equity market tends to offer a pretty good deal. Compared with holding cash, investors assume a significant amount of risk, but that risk is generally well-rewarded with higher returns. If your timeframe is long enough, the risks tend to even out somewhat, and the returns compound meaningfully. Staying in cash for twenty or thirty years would normally be a dreadful investment strategy. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation.
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Is the US too expensive?
Russell Muldoon
January 15, 2015
With headlines booming across the newswires such as “U.S. Retakes Helm of Global Economy” citing the US economy is on the up, the US market has soared as share prices – on average – have baked-in a clear road ahead for listed businesses and their earnings prospects.
But just to what extent? continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Earnings per share growth forecasts under pressure
David Buckland
January 13, 2015
With seven months to go before Australian companies commence reporting their results for the year to June 2015, it will not surprise readers to see earning per share (EPS) growth forecasts being cut to sub 5 per cent. According to Deutsche Bank, EPS growth forecasts for June 2016 financial year has also been cut to 7 per cent. The expectations for both years are below the 8 per cent average figure recorded in the 2002-2011 ten-year period.
by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Did we see any new opportunities in 2014?
Roger Montgomery
January 8, 2015
Over the next few days, we will take a look back at 2014 and highlight the most popular articles based on your views and comments.
Each week, we scan the market for fresh opportunities. If you’re doing the same – only to come up with a very small handful of desirable candidates (many of which you probably own already) – then you’re in good company. More important than our list is the observation that there are enough high quality candidates to at least fill part of a portfolio.
I was thinking about why there might just be an almighty stock market boom sometime between now and 2016.
In September, one of our preferred ‘Sells’ over recent years has been Arrium Ltd (ASX: ARI), formerly known as OneSteel.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
