Market commentary
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Despite declining efficacy, vaccines are our only way back to normal life
Andreas Lundberg
September 9, 2021
I have been reading the media reports noting the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines declines over time. Thankfully, even with reduced efficacy, vaccines provide protection from serious disease, and a booster shot will increase efficacy. A high vaccination coverage provides the impetus for politicians to safely re-open our societies. And that will be a shot in the arm for many Australian businesses. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Why unfettered capitalism is failing us
Roger Montgomery
August 31, 2021
One of the seemingly inevitable consequences of capitalism is the increasing concentration of market power in the hands of fewer and fewer large corporations. This issue was raised in a recent speech by ACCC Chair, Rod Sims, who noted the many ways in which increasing market power is adversely impacting Australian society. In his speech, Mr Sims also stated what I have long been advocating: governments need to do something about it. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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How to cut small cap risk when inflation is on the rise
Roger Montgomery
August 11, 2021
Given the increasing threat of inflation, many investors are asking me what impact it will have on small companies. The quandary is that small caps are more volatile than large caps, but they can provide greater potential for long-term growth. For me, the answer lies in high quality stock selection. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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What can we expect from inflation?
Roger Montgomery
August 9, 2021
It has been noted by some economic observers that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has, in 2021, been consistent in one aspect of his predictions about inflation; that he’s consistently wrong. The message, as we’ve discussed here at the blog throughout the year, is that inflation is transitory. Base effects will ensure inflation turns to disinflation with the passage of another year, and capitalism’s supply response will solve the bottlenecks in global commodity supply chains. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Australia’s COVID-19 National Plan charts our way back to normal
Roger Montgomery
August 4, 2021
Finally, Australia’s vaccine rollout is beginning to gain traction. In July, around 4.5 million vaccinations were administered – more than double the rate achieved in May. While we’re still playing catch-up with other countries, like Israel, the UK and USA, it’s heartening to see we are working our way back to life as we once knew it. The aim now is to get 80 per cent of the population fully vaccinated as fast as possible. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why asset price inflation is set to continue
Roger Montgomery
August 3, 2021
Soaring house prices in Australia and overseas are but one aspect of the asset price inflation that is now gripping much of the world. While this may be good for the owners of those assets, it is leading to increased inequality within and between countries. And that’s a phenomenon that, history shows, often ends badly. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Are we about to see a profit and dividend bonanza?
Andreas Lundberg
July 30, 2021
We are about to enter reporting season, when most of our listed companies report their results for the prior financial year. With stock market indices at all-time highs, it looks like the market is expecting many of our larger companies to come out with solid earnings and dividend announcements. Perhaps more interesting will be their forecasts for the year ahead. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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How to position your portfolio for the delta variant
Roger Montgomery
July 22, 2021
Since late 2020, we’ve pivoted our portfolios to businesses likely to benefit from the economy’s reopening – and generated excellent returns. But the emergence of the highly infectious delta variant makes the future far less certain. My take is that higher quality and structural growth businesses should again be on your radar. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why Chinese investors are shying away from Australia
Andreas Lundberg
July 20, 2021
In Australia, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are on the rise. But largely absent from this activity are Chinese businesses who, until recently, have invested heavily in our economy. Looking at the reasons behind this reduced investment, I think this trend could continue for some time to come. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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What can we learn from the investing themes of FY21?
Joseph Kim
July 16, 2021
July is a natural time for us to review the financial year just past – both in terms of The Montgomery Fund as well as the investment journey of the broader market. The 2021 financial year was unprecedented in many ways, not just because the last 12 months has seemed more like an extension of the initial COVID-19 fallout of the June 2020 quarter, but also because of the volatility witnessed in the broader market given the rapid pace of developments in a suddenly “less predictable” world. continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Market commentary.
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