Market commentary
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The tightening interest rate cycle is now biting
David Buckland
October 6, 2022
With the exception of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which commenced its monetary policy tightening cycle in October 2021, well ahead of their English-speaking counterparts – the other major English-speaking Central Banks have tried to play “catch-up football” in recent months to counter the multi-decade growth in inflationary expectations. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Focus on inflation if you want to profit from market volatility
Roger Montgomery
September 28, 2022
Global markets are clearly spooked by the U.S. Federal Reserve pushing up interest rates in order to rein in inflation. But fear not. Because inflation is always followed by disinflation. And research shows that shares do very well in a disinflationary environment. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why the risk-reward ratio is looking good for quality small caps
Roger Montgomery
September 23, 2022
Since January, world markets have been selling off. As a result, a number of quality small cap businesses are now trading at very attractive multiples. Is now a good time to invest in quality small caps? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What three billionaire investors think the future holds
Roger Montgomery
September 21, 2022
In a recent podcast, famed U.S. investor Howard Marks noted that “there are no facts about the future, just opinions.” But that truism hasn’t stopped three of his fellow billionaires – Bill Ackman, Stanley Druckenmiller and Ray Dalio – airing their views on the prospects for the global economy and investment returns. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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How to profit from today’s market volatility
Roger Montgomery
September 20, 2022
When markets head south, it’s a time for investors to rejoice and not despair. Because falling markets give you the chance to invest in quality businesses – often at knock-down prices. So, my advice right now is to make the market correction your ally, remembering that the lower the price you pay, the higher your long-term return is likely to be. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Aura High Yield SME Fund: Letter to investors 09 September 2022
Brett Craig
September 12, 2022
The RBA has raised rates for the fifth month in a row bringing the cash rate to 2.35% with the expectation of reining in inflation by the end of the year. Largely in line with market expectations, the RBA raised the cash rate by 50 basis points. This is the highest cash rate since early 2015. continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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Aura High Yield SME Fund: Letter to Investors 02 September 2022
Brett Craig
September 5, 2022
The retail trade and APRA July 2022 data released this week provided more data to support RBA hikes in the coming months. This week the ABS released data for retail trade turnover and volume. This dataset includes references to retail businesses including stores and online sales. continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.
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Why the Fed’s war on inflation could lead to bargains for investors
Roger Montgomery
August 30, 2022
On Friday at Jackson Hole in the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, spoke for eight minutes and 38 seconds reinforcing the idea that restrictive monetary policy is likely to be maintained for some time – all in the name of fighting inflation. World markets quickly went into reverse. The good news is that savvy investors may now get another chance to buy quality businesses at attractive prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Beware of a head fake, warns Goldman Sachs
Roger Montgomery
August 26, 2022
When it comes to investing, a head fake is an increase or decrease in market performance that is quickly followed by a shift in the opposite direction. And with the market bouncing off recent lows, that’s exactly what the analysts at Goldman Sachs are warning could soon occur as investors realise they became too excited too soon. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Is the current rally premature?
Roger Montgomery
August 17, 2022
I believe there are good arguments the current rally is premature and might reverse. Keep in mind I am still long and heavily invested in equities. I just think the current rally has got ahead of itself. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
