Market commentary
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Investor risk aversion sees IPOs plummet in 2022
Roger Montgomery
December 20, 2022
Rising interest rates have dimmed the risk appetite of many investors. And it’s not just crypto, NFTs and speculative ‘growth’ stocks that have taken a hit. This calendar year also saw global IPO proceeds drop markedly. For example, in the U.S., IPO proceeds fell 95 per cent from 2021. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why 2023 could be a good year for investors
Roger Montgomery
December 19, 2022
Without a doubt, 2022 has been a tough year for equity investors. As I write, the S&P500 is down around 16.5 per cent, and the ASX200 is down around 5.5 per cent. But don’t despair – 2023 could see a return to sharemarket gains. Because history suggests that, after a negative year, the odds improve of a better subsequent year. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Market narrative to pivot from peak inflation to recession
David Buckland
December 16, 2022
Twelve months ago, official cash rates sat at record lows and only one English-speaking Central Bank – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) – had commenced the tightening process in response to increasing inflationary expectations. The rapidly rising commodity prices coinciding with the war in the Ukraine (commenced 24 February 2022) finally got the attention of the English-speaking Central Banks and they followed the RBNZ typically with 8 or 9 “interest rate increases” over the balance of 2022. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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How Macquarie sees the outlook for Australia and the U.S.
Roger Montgomery
December 15, 2022
In two recent blogs, we outlined the views of Goldman Sachs strategists on the Australian and U.S. economic outlook, and the implications for investors. In this blog, we turn to the views of Macquarie Bank. Their forecasts for the ASX100 are particularly noteworthy. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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How Goldman Sachs sees the outlook for the U.S. economy
Roger Montgomery
December 14, 2022
In a recent blog, we outlined the views of Goldman Sachs strategists on the Australian economic outlook, and the implications for investors. In this blog, we turn to the U.S. Given Goldman Sachs’s close relationship with the U.S. Federal Reserve, their views are certainly worth reading – particularly in relation to the likely direction of interest rates. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
INTEREST RATES, THE BEST IT GETS. IT’S TIME TO DEPLOY CASH
Curious about the investment landscape in 2024? It appears that the current market offers a plethora of enticing opportunities for investors, a rarity not experienced since pre-pandemic times. This unique scenario stems from a confluence of factors, including elevated yields and comparatively rational equity valuations.
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How Goldman Sachs views the Australian economy
Roger Montgomery
December 13, 2022
Our small caps team recently met with strategists from Goldman Sachs and Macquarie Bank. We were keen to hear how these two investment banks view near-term trends for asset classes, and the Australian and U.S. economies. In this blog, we summarise the views of Goldman Sachs. A forthcoming blog will summarise those of Macquarie Bank. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Signs of change in China
Michael Gollagher
December 12, 2022
In the past week we have seen an ever-growing number of news stories around China and the changing tide in their stance towards COVID-19. Since the early days of the pandemic, they have pursued a policy of Zero COVID. No matter the economic or social damage this caused, this was their policy. continue…
by Michael Gollagher Posted in Market commentary.
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Will the RBNZ lift cash rates again?
David Buckland
November 23, 2022
To remind readers, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was six months ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in commencing their tightening interest rate cycle on 6 October 2021. On eight occasions, the New Zealand official cash rate has been tightened to 3.5 per cent, and a ninth tightening is expected at RBNZ’s next meeting today, Wednesday 23 November. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Is FTX’s collapse another chapter in the golden age of fraud?
Roger Montgomery
November 18, 2022
In the past week, much ink has been spilled on the multi-billion-dollar collapse of FTX, the crypto exchange started by one-time tech ‘wunderkind’, Sam Bankman-Fried. And no one, I believe, has summed up the situation better than Pete Drewienkiewicz, from UK broker Redington. It’s so spot-on, I’m just going to copy-paste it below. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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History shows us how rising rates affect equity returns
Roger Montgomery
November 11, 2022
Instead of trying to speculate when the market will turn around, I think investors would be better off focusing on changes in interest rates. After all, history teaches us that changes in interest rates, and the extent to which rates rise beyond consensus estimates, are a major determinant of price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and, therefore, sharemarket returns. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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