Market commentary
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Why I’m cautiously optimistic about 2023
Roger Montgomery
February 6, 2023
A number of commentators are calling the current rebound in global markets a ‘dead cat bounce’. Veteran fund manager, and famous ‘perma-bear’, Jeremy Grantham, has even warned that stocks could plunge a ‘stomach-churning 50 per cent’ from here. But I’m not so sure. I think there are plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Australian small companies outlook for 2023
Michael Gollagher
February 1, 2023
Having not long finished the festive season and commenced a new year, many of us take the moments shortly after to reflect on the year that was, and also consider what we would like to see in the year ahead. continue…
by Michael Gollagher Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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What can we expect from markets in 2023?
Scott Phillips
January 20, 2023
The calendar year of 2022 proved to be a tough one for most investors. In fact, it is only the third time in the last 100 years that both equities and bonds have recorded a down year together (those years being 1931, 1969 and now 2022). Bonds, which usually provide a cushioning effect for portfolios in times of equity market weakness proved ineffective as inflation soared, pushing bond yields higher and bond prices lower. continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Hello 2023
David Buckland
January 3, 2023
Many commentators point to the twelve months to December 2022 as being one of the toughest annual periods for the performance of the share market and the bond market for several decades. This was led by the severe sell-off in Government Bonds, aggressive tightening of most Central Banks’ official cash rate and the 33.1 per cent decline in the US-tech heavy Nasdaq Index. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Think like a bargain hunter
David Buckland
December 22, 2022
In his latest memo, Oaktree’s Howard Marks wrote “In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen a number of economic cycles, pendulum swings, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two sea changes. I think we may be in the midst of a third one today.” continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Investor risk aversion sees IPOs plummet in 2022
Roger Montgomery
December 20, 2022
Rising interest rates have dimmed the risk appetite of many investors. And it’s not just crypto, NFTs and speculative ‘growth’ stocks that have taken a hit. This calendar year also saw global IPO proceeds drop markedly. For example, in the U.S., IPO proceeds fell 95 per cent from 2021. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why 2023 could be a good year for investors
Roger Montgomery
December 19, 2022
Without a doubt, 2022 has been a tough year for equity investors. As I write, the S&P500 is down around 16.5 per cent, and the ASX200 is down around 5.5 per cent. But don’t despair – 2023 could see a return to sharemarket gains. Because history suggests that, after a negative year, the odds improve of a better subsequent year. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Market narrative to pivot from peak inflation to recession
David Buckland
December 16, 2022
Twelve months ago, official cash rates sat at record lows and only one English-speaking Central Bank – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) – had commenced the tightening process in response to increasing inflationary expectations. The rapidly rising commodity prices coinciding with the war in the Ukraine (commenced 24 February 2022) finally got the attention of the English-speaking Central Banks and they followed the RBNZ typically with 8 or 9 “interest rate increases” over the balance of 2022. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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How Macquarie sees the outlook for Australia and the U.S.
Roger Montgomery
December 15, 2022
In two recent blogs, we outlined the views of Goldman Sachs strategists on the Australian and U.S. economic outlook, and the implications for investors. In this blog, we turn to the views of Macquarie Bank. Their forecasts for the ASX100 are particularly noteworthy. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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How Goldman Sachs sees the outlook for the U.S. economy
Roger Montgomery
December 14, 2022
In a recent blog, we outlined the views of Goldman Sachs strategists on the Australian economic outlook, and the implications for investors. In this blog, we turn to the U.S. Given Goldman Sachs’s close relationship with the U.S. Federal Reserve, their views are certainly worth reading – particularly in relation to the likely direction of interest rates. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
