Insightful Insights
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Forecasts and predictions
Tim Kelley
February 7, 2013
With the market having woken up in a good mood in January, we have recently seen a number of commentators revise upwards their forecasts for where the index may finish the year. Declaring 2013 to be a year for the bulls is very much in fashion. Admitting how wrong most of these forecasts were for 2012 is rather less fashionable.
To add some context, I thought it might be helpful to refer to some interesting research that has been done on the reliability of expert forecasts.
continue…by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Dear Under-50 Investor
Roger Montgomery
February 6, 2013
Dear Under-50 Investor,
Superannuation will be no good for you if you are under 50 today, so invest the absolute minimum amount into super.
That means, no salary sacrificing, no co-contributions, no non-concessional contributions. Ignore the calls to save tax and boost your super you will be soon contributing 12% of your salary anyway. This is not advice but a challenge to others, much more qualified than I, to dispute it and explain why I am totally wrong. By the way, as a fund manager of course, I am financially delighted to be completely wrong on this one!
continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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MEDIA
Stick to stocks with edge
Roger Montgomery
February 1, 2013
In his February 2013 Money Magazine column, Roger outlines why it serves rational value investors to ignore the predictors of market fluctuations. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation, On the Internet.
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Tailoring the right fit for Pumpkin Patch
Ben MacNevin
January 31, 2013
Pumpkin Patch is a New Zealand company that specializes in higher-end children’s wear. The company began in New Zealand in 1990 and expanded into Australia in 1993, and has managed to reach mature growth in both markets. Many Australasian retailers that reach mature growth will use their positions to support overseas expansions. Pumpkin Patch has managed to launch a profitable wholesale business by signing distribution agreements to hundreds of department stores around the world. However, its store rollout into the UK in 2001 and the US in 2005 has really hurt the company. This retail model was never profitable, and while a high New Zealand dollar and sluggish retail environment did little to help their margins, management were unable to replicate the success of the Australasian stores. The company accumulated NZD13.5 million of retained losses before management made the decision to close their UK and US stores and focus on their online and wholesale divisions.
continue…by Ben MacNevin Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing.
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Hangover ahead for Miners?
Roger Montgomery
January 30, 2013
Recently a 5.5kg gold nugget was discovered prospecting around an old mine in Ballarat. Sometimes lightning strikes twice but more often trying to repeat past successes is like a dog returning to its vomit.
Spare a brief thought for the hapless long-term investor in businesses with sustainable competitive advantages. Sadly, these are not the businesses the stock market has been enamored with over the past six months.
continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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MEDIA
Back to the Good Old Days?
Roger Montgomery
January 29, 2013
In his first television appearance for 2013, Roger provides his insights into the reasons behind the recent rallies on Australian and Global Markets and how and if these trends will continue in discussion with Ticky Fullerton on ABC1’s The Business (Roger appears at 3:30). Watch here.
This edition of The Business was broadcast on Tuesday 29th January 2013.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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Brand Manager Battles
Russell Muldoon
January 24, 2013
The half-year reporting season has begun in earnest this week with a slight trickle of financials coming through.
Of little interest to us so far are the reports from a number of listed investment companies (LIC’s) and also Agenix Limited (ASX: AGX), an unprofitable early-stage medical device company. These reports and many others like them are quickly pushed to one side to ensure we focus our time, energy and effort on more productive outcomes. Conversely, we have read GUD Holdings half year with interest.
continue…by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Better times ahead for listed insurers?
Tim Kelley
January 23, 2013
After an extended run of disappointing performance from Australia’s largest non-life insurers, there have more recently been some positive signs. Over the past 12 months IAG’s share price has increased to around $5 from around $3 and, more recently, the QBE share price has risen from around $10 to over $12, partly on the back of press reports that cost reduction initiatives are planned. In light of these developments, it may be appropriate to consider whether these businesses face a brighter future.
continue…by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Insurance.
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McMillan Shakespeare
Russell Muldoon
January 18, 2013
The recent share price fall (now partially recovered) in McMillan Shakespeare over the past week can largely be attributed to this article in The Australian.
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Analyst Forecasts
Tim Kelley
January 17, 2013
In evaluating the future prospects for a business, one useful source of information is analyst earnings estimates. A good broking analyst who covers a particular company will often have a well-informed view of the factors that might influence earnings for that company in the years ahead.
At the same time, there are a number of biases and other issues with analysts’ forecasts. One interesting issue is that the forecasts can have a certain “inertia” to them, which means that changes may occur gradually over time. Because of this, it can be useful to look at the history of the forecasts, as well as the current level.
continue…by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
