Insightful Insights

John Mauldin from Mauldin Economics has just penned “A Five-Year Global Financial Forecast” and as investors I thought some of those points, which I have summarised below, should certainly be kept in mind.

1. The Japanese experiment with Quantitative Easing is getting dangerous; they are exporting deflation to trade competitors like Germany, China and South Korea.

2. A European crisis at least as severe as 2012 is likely. Italy and France will struggle as the structural flaws in the design of the Euro become apparent.

3. China is “approaching a day of reckoning as it tries to reduce its dependence on debt in its bid for growth, while creating a consumer society.”

4. Emerging markets which have taken on more dollar denominated debt in recent years will suffer as their currencies decline against a strongly rising US dollar.

For a copy John’s full report please click here.

And on other news:

Japanese 5 year Government Bonds hit nil percent earlier this week; and the UK inflation rate in December 2014 hit its lowest level since May 2000.UK Chancellor George Osborne said the drop in the Consumer Price Index (to 0.5 per cent) was “almost entirely driven by external factors such as the oil price” which has more than halved since June, and is “much more welcome than in the eurozone”, where inflation has fallen to negative 0.2 per cent.

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.

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With headlines booming across the newswires such as “U.S. Retakes Helm of Global Economy” citing the US economy is on the up, the US market has soared as share prices – on average – have baked-in a clear road ahead for listed businesses and their earnings prospects.

But just to what extent? continue…

by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.

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With seven months to go before Australian companies commence reporting their results for the year to June 2015, it will not surprise readers to see earning per share (EPS) growth forecasts being cut to sub 5 per cent.  According to Deutsche Bank, EPS growth forecasts for June 2016 financial year has also been cut to 7 per cent. The expectations for both years are below the 8 per cent average figure recorded in the 2002-2011 ten-year period.

continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.

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Over the next few days, we will take a look back at 2014 and highlight the most popular articles based on your views and comments.

Each week, we scan the market for fresh opportunities. If you’re doing the same – only to come up with a very small handful of desirable candidates (many of which you probably own already) – then you’re in good company. More important than our list is the observation that there are enough high quality candidates to at least fill part of a portfolio.

I was thinking about why there might just be an almighty stock market boom sometime between now and 2016.

In September, one of our preferred ‘Sells’ over recent years has been Arrium Ltd (ASX: ARI), formerly known as OneSteel.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.

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Over the next few days, we will take a look back at 2014 and highlight the most popular articles based on your views and comments.

The mention of house prices falling and negative gearing was a popular post.

In May, we talked Coca-Cola Amatil share price having declined by 40 per cent, and the duopoly that makes up Australia’s grocery retail landscape has putting the company on a strict diet of shrinking volumes, values and loss of market share to Schweppes and more particularly, the category known as “Private Label” soft drinks.

The forecast Australian population growth from 23 million to 40 million by 2060 bodes well for self-storage providers – and small-cap National Storage is no exception. We take a closer look at how the third-largest self-storage provider is positioned. Note, you will need to log in as a subscriber to see this paper.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Property, Value.able.

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In December I wrote an article for the ASX Investor Update, I thought I would share my thoughts with you as a welcome back to the year ahead.

What you should be watching out for in 2015 and what to expect with property prices, index funds and shares. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Energy / Resources, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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One of our peeves at Montgomery is fund managers who ‘hug’ the index. A manager might for example take an underweight position in BHP by allocating 5 per cent of a portfolio to it, when BHP makes up around 7 per cent of the index. This leaves them with a 2 per cent underweight position, which can fund an overweight position in some other large cap stock. If they charge investors a fee of 100 basis points for this type of ‘active’ management, the investors are getting a raw deal. continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.

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Court finds Coles engaged in unconscionable conduct and orders Coles pay $10 million penalties.

 The Federal Court has today, by consent, made declarations in two proceedings instituted by the ACCC that Coles Supermarkets Australia Pty Ltd engaged in unconscionable conduct in 2011 in its dealings with certain suppliers.

 The Court has also ordered Coles pay combined pecuniary penalties of $10 million and costs. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.

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Macau gaming revenues look set to go from bad to worse. According to reports in The South China Morning Post yesterday, Beijing is giving its Ministry of Public Security powers to crack down on illegal money laundering through Macau, in what is described as an unprecedented move.

Money laundering through Macau has, it is speculated, been a primary channel through which wealthy Chinese channel money out from the mainland. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.

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For those hoping that 2014 will see the end of the mining downturn, the fallout may have only just begun.

A bellwether of the Perth market has released profit guidance that paints a very grim picture of economic conditions in the west. continue…

by Ben MacNevin Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights.

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