Global markets
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U.S. regional banks two-point-Oh!
Roger Montgomery
September 4, 2023
We appear to be witnessing a shift in the U.S. banking landscape and recent events suggest we should proceed with caution. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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China wakes up, but is the nightmare just beginning?
Roger Montgomery
August 28, 2023
I have long ignored the reported vicissitudes of China’s economy, unable to reconcile the fact their gross domestic product (GDP) data – obtained from an impossibly large and disparate country – is released more quickly at the end of each month than the U.S. and the data is rarely, if ever, subsequently amended or adjusted. They get it right the first time, every time. A quick look at the piles of junked Chinese products at the local waste disposal centre quickly disabuses one of any belief in China’s systems producing data that is right the first time every time. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Is a BRICS gold-backed currency and bad idea?
Roger Montgomery
August 24, 2023
The idea of a gold-backed currency proposed by the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as an alternative to the U.S. Dollar has gained attention. However, there are numerous reasons why this concept is considered impractical and unwise. This article explores the challenges and drawbacks of adopting a gold-backed currency, highlighting historical evidence and expert opinions that point to its shortcomings. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets.
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Good news for equities. Investors can expect higher liquidity
Roger Montgomery
June 28, 2023
Putting value to one side, the price of an asset cannot rise unless investors buy it. And, in order to buy it, they require liquidity. Tracking global liquidity can go some way to explaining, if not predicting, the path of asset prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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The Bank of England steps up its fight against inflation with its 13th interest rate hike – raising rates to 5.0 per cent
David Buckland
June 23, 2023
Last night, the Bank of England (BoE) raised its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point to 5.0 per cent, the highest level in 15 years. When it comes to inflation, Britain remains an outlier compared with other major economies, with consumer prices rising 8.7 per cent in May 2023, four times the BOE’s 2 per cent target and more than double the rate in the U.S. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets.
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Why is the S&P 500 rallying amidst uncertain times?
Roger Montgomery
June 20, 2023
While our predicted 2023 stock market rally appears robust at first glance, the reality reveals a different story. Initially, pessimists expected the aggressive series of interest rate hikes in 2022 to have significant consequences. Consensus the U.S. faces a recession, led many to predict a decline in stock values. However, contrary to these expectations, the U.S. economy has continued to grow, and the S&P 500 Index, which influences global investor sentiment, has risen by over 15.3 per cent this year. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand leads the way….again
David Buckland
May 24, 2023
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is determined to crush inflationary expectations, with their 12th increase in official cash rates in the 19 months since 6 October 2021 from 0.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets.
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Will small caps outperform again?
Roger Montgomery
May 19, 2023
The following chart pack reveals the material underperformance of U.S. and global small companies against their larger-capitalisation peers. The relative performances are displayed over the last twelve months and the 2023 calendar year to date (YTD). continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why I think tech and small caps could rally this year
Roger Montgomery
May 10, 2023
With inflation finally coming down, it looks like the U.S. Fed Reserve could soon stop lifting interest rates and start cutting, possibly as early as this year. That’s great news for equity markets, which tend to rally when rates are lower. And it’s particularly good news for technology stocks and small caps. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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What we can learn from Japan’s ageing population
Roger Montgomery
April 12, 2023
Japan’s population is getting older. Today, the ‘land of the rising sun’ has the world’s highest median age, and is the world’s fastest ageing country. Largely as a consequence, innovation, investment and development are slowing, and this is contributing to the country’s ongoing economic stagnation. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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