Financial Services
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Emerging Markets’ Bond Yields In A Massive Bubble
David Buckland
September 14, 2017
An interesting piece of research from Macquarie Equities came across my desk, illustrating the massive bubble we are living through. Despite the chequered history of many Emerging Economies, the spread on the yield on their sovereign bonds relative to US Bonds has come down from seven per cent to three per cent over the past three years.
by David Buckland Posted in Financial Services
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APRA brings some cheer, but banks continue to face headwinds
Stuart Jackson
July 26, 2017
On Wednesday, APRA, announced moves to make Australian banks safer. The announcement was greeted warmly by the market. But what do the new capital requirements mean for the banks in the short to medium term? And should investors really be so sanguine about the prospects for the banks? continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Financial Services
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Watch out for stock valuations when QE ends
Stuart Jackson
July 20, 2017
Central banks could soon end their bond buying activities, thereby unwinding quantitative easing. Should this occur, real interest rates would again be driven by the normal forces of supply and demand. And this could affect stock valuations. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Financial Services, Market commentary
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The great unwind of the Fed’s balance sheet
David Buckland
July 7, 2017
For the first time since it began its quantitative easing in 2009, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it would commence the gradual unwind of its US$4.5 trillion balance sheet sometime later in 2017. Should this plan proceed, higher borrowing costs for corporations and households will be the likely result and this warrants a degree of caution. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services, Global markets
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Moody’s cut the credit rating of four of the biggest banks
Roger Montgomery
June 20, 2017
We were interested by the overnight news that Australia’s four biggest banks have had their long-term credit rating downgraded. Downgraded rating = higher funding costs = higher mortgage rates = mortgage stress? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Financial Services
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The curious case of Fed normalisation
Andrew Macken
June 16, 2017
This week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked its target range for the federal funds rate for the second time this year to 1.00-1.25 percent. In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said that the labor market has continued to strengthen, economic activity has been rising and household spending has picked up in recent months. But the interest rate decision was not the main event. The market was instead focused on how the Fed planned to deal with its US$4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet (shown below). continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Financial Services
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New data show slowing loan growth for the big banks
Stuart Jackson
June 5, 2017
The Reserve Bank and APRA have just released their credit statistics for April. The numbers show a slowing in loan growth rates that was consistent with the recent major bank results to March 2017. The source of slowing is primarily from weakening growth in loans to the corporate sector, while mortgage book growth remains reasonably stable at around 7% year on year. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Financial Services
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We banked on it
Roger Montgomery
June 5, 2017
Back in January this year, The Montgomery Global Fund’s Portfolio Manager, and CIO for Montaka Global Fund, Andy Macken wrote a blog here warning investors about the quality of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank’s (ASX:BEN) earnings. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education
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Should bank investors be alarmed by the proposed levy?
Stuart Jackson
May 25, 2017
The Federal Government’s proposed bank levy has opened up a battlefront with the major banks, not to mention shareholders and bank staff. On face value, the 6 basis point levy seems relatively benign. But we think it will increase investment risk in an already overvalued sector. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Financial Services
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Banks and property investors should brace for increased capital requirements
Stuart Jackson
March 31, 2017
One of the drivers behind the recent bank rally has been a perception we are over the worst of the risks around increasing regulatory capital requirements. But are we? A report card from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision indicates this view might be a little premature. If so, there could be ramifications for banks and property investors alike. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services
