Energy / Resources
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Greased Lightning
Ben MacNevin
January 23, 2015
The sudden fall in the oil price in the December 2014 half-year was unexpected by the market, but the speed of contraction in oil-related investment should come as no surprise. As the German economist Rudi Dornbusch observed, “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will and then happen faster than you thought they could”. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Is it time to look at mining services?
Tim Kelley
January 23, 2015
Among the biggest casualties of falling resources capex have been the various engineering, contracting and construction firms that provide services to the resources sector. Monadelphous (ASX: MND) is a case in point: With strong demand to fuel its growth, the Mondaelphous share price rose 50-fold in the decade leading up to 2012. Over the last few years however, a decline in earnings has seen the share price fall by around 70 per cent – a painful drop in any language. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Property.
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Key issues for 2015
Roger Montgomery
January 5, 2015
In December I wrote an article for the ASX Investor Update, I thought I would share my thoughts with you as a welcome back to the year ahead.
What you should be watching out for in 2015 and what to expect with property prices, index funds and shares. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Energy / Resources, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Are you throwing the baby out with the bathwater?
Roger Montgomery
December 22, 2014
As we start to turn our minds to a well-earned break, we cannot help to ponder what the year ahead might unearth and whether we’ll find something useful and attractive that others have thrown out.
What we know today however, is that Materials and Energy stocks are under the pump from rising supply and falling demand. Some of them, along with those in the mining services game, will shutter operations or go broke – don’t forget there are over 700 mining services companies in Australia and 90 per cent of them are unlisted. Given that China is forecast by the US Conference Board to be growing at only 5.5 per cent in the next few years and by 3.5 per cent in the years to 2025, it is difficult to see any rapid turn around in the economics of materials exploration, mining and production. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Energy / Resources, Financial Services.
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Virtuous and Viscious Cycles
Ben MacNevin
December 19, 2014
For the past decade, the energy sector and Emerging Markets have been fuelled by a growing China. Now, as China slows and the oil price plummets, the feedback loop has turned decisively viscious. But after having it so good for so long, have today’s market participants fully understood the downside risk? continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Energy / Resources.
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Joe’s mid year economic and fiscal outlook
David Buckland
December 16, 2014
Australia is now facing a commodity bust and the outlook is for lower growth and pressure on public finances with the budget deficit for Fiscal 2015 blowing out to $40 billion. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar has declined from US$1.05 to $0.82 in the past twenty months and a low of US$0.75 is on the cards. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Eco growth, is it slowing?
Russell Muldoon
December 10, 2014
In the past few months, we have noted that retailing – among other sectors that make up the Australian economy – slowed dramatically in the June quarter of 2014. The September quarter reports from many companies over AGM season saw a continuation of that trend.
Further to our recent observations, Australia GDP just printed at 0.3 per cent for the September quarter. By contrast, 0.5 per cent for the June quarter 2014, confirms that economic growth is waning in Australia and the RBA might be forced to cut rates further. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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A good year for active fund managers?
Tim Kelley
December 3, 2014
The ASX has gone nowhere this year. After strong performances in 2012 and 2013, 2014 is looking decidedly lacklustre going into the home straight.
One of the features of the year to date has been the very poor showing by resources companies. The Australian equity market has a heavy weighting to resources, and when commodity prices decline, the Australian equity market can lag those of other nations. Clearly this can be a positive as well – in boom times a strong resources market will drive the ASX higher. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Oils ain’t oils…
Roger Montgomery
December 2, 2014
Despite our best efforts to alert investors and advisers to the traps, many remain unwitting speculators.
Take the recent collapse in the price of oil. An army of analysts has already produced a mountain of research and thought-pieces under titles like “Winners & Losers from the Oil Price Crash”. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Airlines, Energy / Resources.
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How powerful is ISLM analysis?
Roger Montgomery
November 28, 2014
Be sure to watch this video from March 2013 (almost two years ago) and then read on…
It only takes three or four minutes to learn about the forces of supply and demand and their effect on prices. It usually takes an entire semester to explain the forces of supply and demand to a first year university student so consider the few minutes you spend here a value-investing opportunity.
This week our friends at the ABC reported a painful situation in one of Australia’s important industries: “Activity in the resources sector continues to tumble, with a new government report showing investment commitments to major projects are now at the lowest level in more than a decade.” continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.
